How can the West 反対する Iran's apocalyptic mindset?

By MICHAEL BURLEIGH FOR THE DAILY MAIL
Updated: 16:18 BST, 28 December 2011

Every country has the 権利 to develop an 原子の energy 産業, but not every country has the 権利 to covertly develop 核の 爆弾s to いじめ（る） and 脅迫してさせる its 隣人s.

For years now Iran has 反抗するd the international community with a covert 核の 武器s programme, whether to 阻止する attack or to 伸び（る） stategic てこ入れ／借入資本 in the wider Middle East. The 重要な 行為／法令／行動する of 反抗 has been to 否定する the International 原子の Energy 当局 接近 to 場所／位置s where ウラン is 存在 濃厚にするd to 武器s grade and other 関係のある 科学（工学）技術s - such as 爆弾 誘発する／引き起こすs - are 存在 製造（する）d and 実験（する）d.

Short of war, the international community has 答える／応じるd by 強化するing 許可／制裁s against Iran, which is essentially a mono-economy based on oil and natural gas, if you 割引 pistachio nuts and carpets. Hitherto the 国内の price of 燃料 has been ひどく subsidised, though 石油 is rationed because of a chronically weak 国内の 精製するing capacity. Iran 輸出（する）s 天然のまま oil, but it 輸入するs 石油.

反抗: Iran is 圧力（をかける）ing ahead with its 核の programme にもかかわらず the protestations of the international community

Today, 大統領 Obama is 調印 into 法律 more stringent 許可／制裁s which 軍隊 companies to choose whether they want to do any 未来 商売／仕事 with the US or with the Bank of Iran, which 過程s 支払い（額）s for its oil and gas.

Obama's 戦略 is to 避ける doing anything that will result in a spike in the price of oil (around US$100 a バーレル／樽 at 現在の), even as America itself 首尾よく develops its own shale oil and natural gas 供給（する）s through fracturing. Any spike in oil and gas prices would only 利益 Iran. What he is hoping to do is to depress the 容積／容量 of Iranian sales, so as to 軍隊 them to sell oil and gas at a 割引d price, その上の tipping their economy into difficulties that might in time destabilise the clerical 政権. It is likely that the EU will also follow this course. Britain has already 効果的に criminalised any 取引 with the Bank of Iran. He will also be 勧めるing 同盟（する）s like Saudi Arabia to 増加する daily 生産（高） to 最大限 levels, which will also depress the price.

軍の 職員／兵員 place an Iranian 旗 on a 潜水艦 in the 海峡s of Hormuz, as 緊張s 増大する over the country's 明らかな design of 核の 武器s

Iran's 海軍 長，指導者 Habibollah Sayyari 簡潔な／要約するs マスコミ on the 海軍の 演習 in the 海峡s of Hormuz

The Iranians have 答える／応じるd by 脅すing to 封鎖 the 海峡s of Hormuz, between Iran and the UAE, through which about a third of the world's oil moves, 経由で a channel about four or five miles wide. The seniority of those making this 脅し has risen in the last couple of weeks. That 水路 is patrolled by the US 海軍, which is 確信して that it could repel any 試みる／企てるs to 地雷 the 水路 or use 自殺 boats against ships. They would （疑いを）晴らす the 地雷s on Day One, and then 沈む all of Iran's minelayers on Day Two. The high 力／強力にするd computer operated 武器s on US ships would make mincemeat of an y 自殺 boats. So I am reliably told.

I 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う it won't come to any of that, にもかかわらず all the huffing and puffing from Tehran. As yet, no one has convincingly 論証するd to me that the Iranians are 有能な of building a 核の 爆弾, let alone 開始するing it on a 弾道学の ミサイル, as 際立った from having bits and pieces incapable of 議会. It is important to separate the facts from the wishful thinking of those who are 活発に 捜し出すing to attack Iran for their own 推論する／理由s.

When they 達成する that 行う／開催する／段階, then we will have to think ーに関して／ーの点でs of an 効果的な deterrent, whether on the part of the US or, more likely, a 速く 核の 武装した neighbourhood, for the Chinese have recently agreed to build 16 核の 力／強力にする 工場／植物s in Saudi Arabia, even as they are the biggest 消費者 of Iran's oil.

One should not underrate the importance of 核の bluff. 負かす／撃墜する to about 1965 the Soviets did this very expertly since the US had an 兵器庫 of 武器s, and means of 配達／演説／出産, that dwarfed Moscow's, whatever 抱擁する 爆弾s they 実験（する）d. It 欠如（する）d any 同等（の） to the solid-fuelled Minuteman intercontinental 弾道学の ミサイル, and had nothing to match the 中央の-空気／公表する refuelled 爆撃機s of 戦略の 空気／公表する 命令（する） which surrounded Russia from all points of the compass. That was why Khruschchev sought to surreptitiously （軍隊を）展開する，配備する 核の weap ons to Cuba in 1962; to 伸び（る） an 即座の 戦略の 辛勝する／優位 that neutralised US might.

Had it come to the crunch, America could have wiped out most of Russia for much of the 冷淡な War. Iran thinks that if it were 有能な of acquiring the 極小の 核の 兵器庫 of North Korea, then it can いじめ（る） its way to 広大な／多数の／重要な 力／強力にする status in its 地域, or at least 確実にする that its wishes are always taken into account. That is the thinking that has to be 証明するd wrong.

How you do that with a leadership that has an apocalyptic mindset is at the heart of the problem, which is why the 中央情報局 and others are spending a lot of time looking at 調書をとる／予約するs on 宗教的な psychoses, 含むing, I am told, a couple of 地雷. What do you do with people who think 大規模な 破壊 may be the 序幕 to some 肉親，親類d of terrestial 楽園?