Xstrata in the 手渡すs of 中国

By This Is Money
Updated: 00:00 BST, 10 May 2004

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XSTRATA, the UK's No.1 採掘 在庫／株, has long been in a bull-傾向 ブイ，浮標d buy strong 仲買人 support. Most recently, Deutsche Bank repeated 'buy' advice. This followed JP Morgan and UBS raising 的s on the 鉱夫's 在庫／株 to 840p.

However, all this advice 残り／休憩（する）d on one 前提 - 中国. The Chinese have been the largest 消費者s of 商品／必需品s such as アイロンをかける and steel, but a 最近の pause in orders has sent shudders through the Xstrata 株 price.

分析 明らかにする／漏らすs that the 株 now 残り／休憩（する） perilously の近くに to a major technical line. So what does the 未来 持つ／拘留する for this 採掘 巨大（な）?

Xstrata has 貿易（する）d above a bull-傾向 line since January this year. And this 安定した up-傾向 has supported the 在庫／株 on three separate occasions. March this year saw the 株 貿易（する） at 最近の highs of nearly 770p and 投資家s felt comfortable as insatiable world 商品／必需品 需要・要求する fed straight to Xstrata's 底（に届く） line.

But as metals prices 弱めるd over the next few weeks, 反映するing 中国's 減ずるd 需要・要求する, 株 宙返り／暴落するd to 625p and 侵入するd the bull-傾向 line at 655p. And this rang alarm bells for technical 分析家s.

If Xstrata can't break 支援する above the support line in the next few days, it may 井戸／弁護士席 誘発する／引き起こす その上の 株 price losses. Friday's の近くにing price 残り／休憩（する）d almost 正確に on this pivotal level, meaning that the next few days of 貿易（する）ing are 批判的な.

A break 支援する above the line at 655p will see a 再開 of the bull-傾向, carrying prices 支援する to this year's highs of 770p. On the downside, 証拠不十分 will continue until a 水平の support zone between 560p and 580p is reached.

中国's 需要・要求する for 商品／必需品s will 始める，決める the long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 price 傾向 for Xstrata, but in the 合間, 感情 and 憶測 will mean that technical levels will play a 決定的な part in 株 price movement.

? Stockwatch is written by William Akerman of Quantigma. For this and other commentary, try 'live' 音声部の at www.market-buzz.com. For more 見解（をとる）s on techical 分析, go to www.quantigma.com