How 小売ing lost its sparkle

By THIS IS MONEY
Updated: 09:59 BST, 10 January 2005

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IT became obvious last week - if it had not been obvious before Christmas - that it was going to be a poor season for retailers. 証拠 from the companies that have 報告（する）／憶測d so far shows beyond 疑問 that 顧客s were slow to start spending and were more canny than ever, using the internet to shop around for 取引s and 需要・要求するing 割引s. Some retailers had a reasonable time, but most did not.

伝統的に, the High Stre et does a ４半期/4分の1 or more of its 年次の 貿易（する） in the six weeks before Christmas. The question it 緊急に needs to ask is whether there were special factors behind this year's sales 減産／沈滞 or whether it 示すs a 根底となる and probably 永久の 転換 in 消費者 behaviour away from the 過度の spending and 消費 that has come to 示す Christmas in 最近の years.

The 平易な answer, and for retailers in many ways the 慰安ing one, is that we are 簡単に seeing Bank of England 知事 Mervyn King's 薬／医学 doing its work. 同様に as 捜し出すing to stop the rise in house prices, the 通貨の 政策 委員会, which he 議長，司会を務めるs, has been keen to slow the growth in 消費者 borrowing for 消費. It could be that the squeeze brought about by rises in 利益／興味 率s 簡単に made its 示す this season.

It is also possible that, while people still have money in their pockets, they are いっそう少なく 確信して and carefree about spending it than they were 12 months ago. The results of 最近の MORI 調査するs, published in yesterday's 観察者／傍聴者, drew attention to the 広げるing 湾 between what people feel about their own 状況／情勢 and what they feel about the economy as a whole.

Thus, almost two-thirds of company bosses say they 推定する／予想する their companies to do better over the next 12 months but より小数の than one in five think the general 経済的な 条件 of the country will 改善する, and more than a ４半期/4分の1 think it will get worse.

返答s 異なる with age, as one would 推定する／予想する. In aggregate, however, twice as many 予報する that their personal 財政上の 状況／情勢 will get better as think the 全体にわたる economy will 改善する. 明確に, the prospect of higher 税金s after the 推定する／予想するd May General 選挙 and the growing perception that public 部門 spending 供給するs neither wealth 創造 nor value for money are beginning to take their （死傷者）数 on 信用／信任. That change of mood might be 推定する／予想するd to damp 負かす／撃墜する the 願望（する） to spend.

There is growing 証拠, too, that people now want to spend their money in d ifferent ways. It has been 公式文書，認めるd for some years now that 動きやすい phones eat up a 重要な slice of spending の中で young people, leaving いっそう少なく for them to splurge in 伝統的な ways. By the same 記念品, it was obvious from the absence of traffic in London last week that large numbers of people had decided to make a two-week break of it and go abroad for a holiday.

This is bad news for the High Street because it 示すs a major change in 消費者 preferences. People 長，率いるing for Heathrow on Christmas Eve do not travel laden 負かす／撃墜する with 現在のs. Nor do they blow large sums on parties. That money gets spent overseas instead - in other countries' hotels, 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業s and High Streets.

All this could be seen as part of the ebb and flow of 経済的な life, and of 信用／信任, and the 貿易（する）ing-up by people to higher-value items as they get more 豊富な and sophisticated. But some sociologists also argue that there is a more 根底となる change under way.

This 論題／論文 示唆するs that the fragmentation of society, the break-up of the family 部隊, the dislocation of the workplace with its 欠如（する） of 職業 安全 and the ever-増加するing pace and 圧力 of life are not 主要な to greater happiness or satisfaction.

さまざまな 調査するs over the years have 確認するd the finding that when people move from poverty to a modest level of affluence there is a major 増加する in happiness. But その上の greater slices of income produce いっそう少なく and いっそう少なく 付加 satisfaction to the point where more money makes no discernible difference to happiness.

Instead, because they have more to lose, people tend to feel more insecure. The extra 圧力 seems not to bring a 支払う／賃金-off in extra happiness but instead 料金d a growing sense of 疑問 about 'what's it all for?'.

There is 研究 to 示唆する this feeling is growing throughout society, though whether it is 一時的な or 永久の, 深い-seated or shallow, is いっそう少なく （疑いを）晴らす. What would worry me as a retailer, though, is that the most obvious 調印する of it is a reaction against c onspicuous 消費 and spending for the sake of spending. Perhaps this is one 推論する／理由 why Christmas this year was flat. If it is, it 示唆するs that 後継するing Christmases will be even flatter.

That really will give retailers something to worry about.