IS will 生き残る Deir Ezzor 敗北・負かす, 警告する 専門家s

Analysts warn the Islamic State group will continue despite the Syrian army recapturing the city of Deir Ezzor, the last major city under the group's control

分析家s 警告する the Islamic 明言する/公表する group will continue にもかかわらず the Syrian army 再度捕まえるing the city of Deir Ezzor, the last major city under the group's 支配(する)/統制する

The Islamic 明言する/公表する group may have just lost the last major city of its self-布告するd "caliphate", but 専門家s and 公式の/役人s 警告する this is far from 存在 the jihadists' deathblow.

分析家s say the Syrian army's 再度捕まえる of Deir Ezzor 発表するd Friday will 押し進める IS 地下組織の after losing 領土 once as large as Italy spanning the Iraq-Syrian 国境.

The most 広範囲にわたって 予報するd シナリオ is that the group will transform into a ゲリラ兵 軍隊 on the ground in Sunni areas remaining outside the 十分な 支配(する)/統制する of Baghdad and Damascus.

At the same time, its "cyber-caliphate" will continue to churn out jihadist 宣伝 of the 肉親,親類d that 奮起させるd Tuesday's deadly トラックで運ぶ attack in New York.

"Daesh is cornered," French Defence 大臣 Florence Parly said Tuesday, using an Arabic acronym for IS.

"It has lost its two 資本/首都s. The final 不快な/攻撃s are under way to anni hilate this pseudo-caliphate and its いわゆる 兵士s," she told the 上院.

But she 警告するd: "Daesh's swansong will be …を伴ってd by new 内密の テロリスト 行為/法令/行動するs, いつかs みごたえのある ones, and the group's online 影響(力) will 絶対 耐える."

She pointed to Africa's 安定性のない Sahel 地域 along the southern 縁 of the Sahara, 同様に as Yemen, Nigeria, the Levant and the Philippines as areas where "the 癌 of blind 憎悪 is still spreading".

In Iraq, IS may have been 徹底的に 弱めるd, but "the 軍の victory is not 存在 …を伴ってd by a political 見通し for after Daesh ーに関して/ーの点でs of re-統合するing the Arab and Sunni 全住民s into politics," 警告するd ジーンズ-Pierre Filiu, a professor at Sciences Po university in Paris.

- 'From 謀反のs to テロリストs' -

In Syria, he said, "the prospects are even worse".

"This absence of a long-称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 戦略 leaves Daesh a lot of room for 再編成するing in the 近づく 未来, while continuing to work its 網状組織s of 支持者s around the world."

分析家s 推定する/予想する IS to 逆戻りする to 策略 it used in its earlier incarnation as the Al-Qaeda in Iraq 暴動 of 2004 to 2008.

In the coming months or years, they 警告する, it could 潜在的に then re-現れる as a reinvigorated IS.

"There is unfortunately little 疑問 that IS, or something 類似の, will 生き残る the 世界的な (選挙などの)運動をする against it," Richard Barrett, a former British 知能 公式の/役人, wrote in a 報告(する)/憶測 for the Soufan Group.

"There is little predictable about the trajectory of テロ行為 in a world in flux, except that it will continue to challenge international 安全 for many years to come."

He said 生き残るing members of what was once a 40,000-strong 軍隊 of foreign 闘士,戦闘機s from more than 100 countries were の中で the main 脅しs.

Some are now 拘留するd in Syria and Iraq; others will be 長,率いるing home.

"These 新採用するs may also decide to 捜し出す new theatres of jihad once they have 残り/休憩(する)d and recuperated," the 報告(する)/憶測 警告するd.

Colin P. Clarke, a テロ行為 専門家 at the RAND 会社/団体, said IS "is 存在 軍隊d to change its 戦略 and 策略, but it has been proactively 準備するing for the next 段階 of the 衝突".

"In short, it is 移行ing from an 謀反の organisation to a テロリスト group," he wrote in a blog 地位,任命する.

The world is watching it 転換 from 存在 "an 謀反の organisation with 直す/買収する,八百長をするd (警察,軍隊などの)本部 to a 内密の テロリスト 網状組織 分散させるd throughout the 地域 and the globe", he said.

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