Trump ups US 賭け金 on Taiwan, but 中国 has てこ入れ／借入資本 too

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In this Dec. 9, 2016, photo, 大統領-elect Donald Trump smiles during a 決起大会／結集させる at DeltaPlex 円形競技場 in Grand 早いs, Mich. Trump sounds ready to use U.S. 政策 toward Taiwan as a 取引ing 半導体素子 to 抽出する 譲歩s from 中国, but both of the world 力／強力にするs could play at that game. 中国?s rising 経済的な and 軍の clout means its 共産主義者 leadership has てこ入れ／借入資本 over Washington too. Beijing could 築く more 障害s for U.S. companies working in 中国. It could ramp up 緊張s in the seas of East Asia. And if differences spike over Taiwan, the Trump 行政 could 直面する 堅い choices on whether to send U.S. 軍隊s to defend the island that 中国 regards as part of its 領土.(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

"This was the 協定 that underpinned the 正常化 of U.S.-中国 relations. If you throw that out the window then 中国 may very 井戸／弁護士席 see this as 開始 up every other 問題／発行する," said Michael Fuchs, a former U.S. 上級の 外交官 on East Asia.

A look at some of the areas in which 中国 could make life difficult for the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs:

TAIWAN

If 中国 saw its 国家の 利益／興味s were 脅すd by a Trump 行政 it could squeeze the U.S. 同盟（する） economically, 政治上 and 軍事的に. 中国 has far superior 空気／公表する and 海軍の 力／強力にする to Taiwan and has hundreds of ミサイルs arrayed against the island. 中国 could ramp up 軍の 演習s in the 110-mile-wide Taiwan 海峡 to d emonstrate its 解決する to 奪い返す Taiwan by 軍隊 if necessary.

The U.S. has no 合法的な 義務 to defend Taiwan but has 以前 flexed its muscles when the island was under 脅し. In 1996, the 法案 Clinton 行政 permitted Taiwan's then-leader 物陰／風下 Teng-hui, who was seen as challenging the one-中国 政策, to 演説（する）／住所 his 母校 Cornell University. 中国 反応するd with ミサイル 実験（する）s in waters 近づく Taiwan. The U.S. 答える／応じるd by sending two 航空機 運送／保菌者 戦う／戦い groups and 中国 支援するd 負かす／撃墜する.

Twenty years on, and 中国 is now much stronger and challenges American 軍の pre-eminence. Patrick Cronin at the 中心 for a New American 安全 said it would 本気で 傷つける U.S. 信用性 with its other 同盟（する）s if it failed to stand up for Taiwan after Trump encouraged its 現在の leader Tsai Ing-wen to 直接／まっすぐに engage with him. It would also 危険 怒り／怒るing a 堅固に プロの／賛成の-Taiwan U.S. 議会.

TRADE AND INVESTMENT

U.S.-中国 貿易（する） in goods and services reached nearly $660 billion last year, ひどく in 中国's 好意. Trump has 示唆するd 課すing 45 パーセント 関税s on Chinese 製品s to 訂正する the 不均衡. 中国, 苦しむing a 減産／沈滞 in its growth, could 報復する in 肉親，親類d, setting off a 貿易（する） war that would also 傷つける the U.S. economy. The Chinese 明言する／公表する has 激しい 関与 in the economy and has 以前 used 貿易（する） to punish Japan and the Philippines over 領土の 論争s.

Bonnie Glaser, 上級の 助言者 for Asia at the 中心 for 戦略の and International 熟考する／考慮するs, said 中国 could choose to buy big-ticket 製品s like airplanes from フラン-based Airbus instead of U.S.-based Boeing. It could also 制限する 輸入するs of U.S. goods that it can 得る どこかよそで and dial 支援する growing Chinese 投資 in America.

MILITARIZATION IN EAST ASIA

Trump on Sunday （刑事）被告 中国 of building "a 大規模な 要塞" in the South 中国 Sea ― a 言及／関連 to 人工的な islands Beijing has built in 論争d waters there. 中国 could 促進する militarization of the islands over U.S. 反対s. その上の north in the East 中国 Sea, Beijing could step up 操作／手術s by its boats and 航空機 challenging Japan's 支配（する）／統制する of other islands which are covered by a U.S.-Japan 相互の 弁護 条約.

COOPERATING ON NORTH KOREA

Trump also said 中国 was "not helping us at all with North Korea." That's a familiar 差し控える in Washington. Pyongyang depends on its 貿易（する） with 中国 for its 経済的な 生き残り. While 中国 has supported stiffer U.N. 許可／制裁s and won't 是認する a 核の North Korea, it remains 気が進まない to 課す 経済的な costs that could 脅す the 生き残り of Kim Jong Un's 政府.

示す Fitzpatrick of the International 学校／設ける of 戦略の 熟考する／考慮するs said Beijing still 持つ／拘留するs the 重要な to 適用するing the 肉親，親類d of 圧力 that might get Kim to 規模 支援する his 核の and ミサイル programs. "説得するing Beijing to 協力する will be all the more difficult if Trump 原因（となる）s problems over Taiwan," he said.

中国 won't やむを得ず change tack on other 全世界の 問題／発行するs like 気候 change because of a 不和 with Washington. But Glaser said there could be a deeper Chinese alignment with Russia in international 事件／事情／状勢s. She said that would depend upon the 進化 of U.S.-Russia relations under Trump, who appears to want warmer 関係 with Moscow.

CYBERSECURITY

The U.S. has long complained that 中国 steals U.S. 法人組織の／企業の （警察などへの）密告，告訴（状） to help its own companies. Fuchs said that's "another 圧力 point" with Washington. 緊張s on this 問題／発行する have ebbed since 大統領 Barack Obama and Ch inese 大統領 Xi Jinping agreed in September 2015 that neither 政府 will support 商業の cyber-窃盗, although U.S. 公式の／役人s have not conclusively 決定するd that it has led to a 拒絶する／低下する in 切り開く／タクシー／不正アクセスs against U.S. companies.