SCENARIOS-Monte dei Paschi 直面するs difficult choices as refinancing 最終期限 ぼんやり現れるs
By Silvia Aloisi and John O'Donnell
MILAN/FRANKFURT, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena will likely turn to Rome to help plug a 穴を開ける in its 財政／金融s within weeks, 公式の／役人s and regulators believe, although many questions remain over how the bank might be saved.
The bank needs to raise 5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of fresh 資本／首都 to cover losses from the sale of 28 billion euros of bad 貸付金s and the European Central Bank has given it until the end of the year to （不足などを）補う this 不足（高）.
This carries 負わせる because the ECB gives 基金ing to banks, which could be 孤立した, and, as their 監督者, can 圧力 them into 活動／戦闘 and 決定する whether they stay in 商売／仕事.
Italy's third-largest bank, and the world's oldest, said on Sunday it would 圧力（をかける） ahead with a last-溝へはまらせる／不時着する 計画（する） to raise 5 billion euros on the market after the ECB 辞退するd to give it more time to recapitalise.
It 直面するs three main シナリオs:
* Italy steps in to 注入する fresh 資本／首都 単独で into Monte dei Paschi. With only a わずかな／ほっそりした chance seen of the bank raising all the money from 投資家s, help from Rome would 申し込む／申し出 a quick 直す／買収する，八百長をする - but with one catch.
Any 明言する／公表する 援助（する） must first be （疑いを）晴らすd by the European （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限, which will 需要・要求する that 投資家s take some losses - a 原則 built into European 法律 after the banking 危機 to 削減（する） the cost of 未来 明言する／公表する bailouts.
Earlier this year Rome sought 是認 from Brussels to help Monte dei Paschi, but the EU's 競争 commissioner Margrethe Vestager 手配中の，お尋ね者 投資家s to 株 the cost, in keeping with these 支配するs, known as a '保釈（金）-in'.
Rome 辞退するd, arguing that Italian pensioners would be 攻撃する，衝突する and 投資家s would no longer be 利益／興味d in buying the country's 負債. With time running out, however, it may have little choice now but to agree.
European 公式の／役人s believe the bank's swapping of 負債 for 株 could be a way out of the 行き詰まり.
A 財務省 source said any 注射 by the 明言する／公表する would 伴う／関わる the 義務的な 転換 of subordinated 社債s into 株.
That would 含む 40,000 小売 投資家s who own 2.1 billion euros of the bank's junior 負債 and whose vulnerability is a 重要な 関心 for the Italian 政府. Those 投資家s would be 補償するd by the 明言する／公表する, the source said.
* The Italian 政府 could 供給する more money to 取り組む problems at Monte dei Paschi 同様に as other laggard banks as an ambitious industrywide 救助（する） 計画（する） that 銀行業者s believe could cost 15 billion euros.
Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, two 地域の 貸す人s 救助（する）d by a 明言する／公表する-sponsored bailout 基金 Atlante, need 2.5 billion euros to 対処する with bad 負債s.
A number of other lesser-known banks, such as Genoa's Banca Carige and Banca Etruria, also need help.
To 支払う／賃金, Italy could 適用する for a bailout programme 類似の to that 認めるd to Spain during the 財政上の 危機, where the 精密検査する of its 財政上の 部門 would be 形態／調整d by European 公式の／役人s.
That would 伴う／関わる 貸付金s from the euro zone's bailout 計画／陰謀, the European 安定 機械装置, although such a move, which would see Rome lose 自治, would be 深く，強烈に 人気がない in Italy and resisted by 政治家，政治屋s.
Although Italy already has more than 2 一兆 euros of 負債, it can still borrow cheaply, thanks to money printing by the European Central Bank.
* With the Italian 政府 in limbo, Monte dei Paschi is ありそうもない to 首尾よく raise the entire 5 billion euros from 投資家s but this will form part of the 解答.
This 伴う／関わるs 再開するing a 負債-to-公正，普通株主権 交換（する） 申し込む／申し出 to the 小売 junior bondholders. Qatar's 君主 wealth 基金 could also put in another 1 billion euros, while a 国際借款団／連合 of banks would try to sell その上の 株. ($1 = 0.9420 euros)
(令状ing by John O'Donnell; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
