Commentary: How the Catalonia 投票（する） 脅すs the EU
By John Lloyd
Nov 3 (Reuters) - The struggles for and against independence in the Spanish 州 of Catalonia are emblematic of the European Union´s 現在の strength and its 未来 証拠不十分. They also 陳列する，発揮する the 証拠不十分s, 現在の and 未来, of the two leaders of the 競うing parties: Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish 首相 and Carles Puigdemont, 大統領，／社長 of Catalonia.
The 宣言 of independence made by Catalonia´s 議会 a week ago was constitutionally 違法な. 発射s of 抱擁する プロの／賛成の-independence 決起大会／結集させるs obscure the fact that, in an opinion 投票 in the summer, 49.4 per cent …に反対するd breaking away from Spain while 41.1 per cent supported it. Unionists have held their own large 決起大会／結集させるs and a new 投票 in El Mundo shows their parties with a slight 投票ing lead in the December Catalan 選挙s.
The 議会の 投票（する） for independence - taken in a half-十分な 議会 after the anti-independence parties left in 抗議する - was 速く followed by Rajoy, fully 支援するd by his 議会 and 上院, ordering the 議会´s 解散 and the 解雇（する）ing of Puigdemont, who fled to Brussels. Nine of his 同僚s in the Catalan leadership were （刑事）被告 in Spain´s high 法廷，裁判所 on Thursday of 反乱, sedition and misuse of public 基金s, eight of whom were 拘留するd in 保護／拘留. Puigdemont has said he will return, but only if given 保証（人）s of a fair 裁判，公判.
Strong support in the 残り／休憩（する） of Spain for a hard line against Catalonian independence masks a longer-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 problem for Rajoy and his country. The 首相 長，率いるs a 少数，小数派 政府, unable to find a stable 連合 partner. In July, Rajoy became the first serving 首相 to 証言する in 法廷，裁判所, 否定するing 主張s that he was complicit in a wide-範囲ing 汚職 スキャンダル in his 中心-権利 Peoples´ Party, 調査s of which have dragged on over the past two １０年間s. Rajoy himself has not been 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金d.
Thus a 国家の leader with a 弱めるd base 直面するs Puig demont, a 地域の leader who has 弱めるd his own base by flight. Puigdemont may not be the man to lead Catalonia to independence, and it may not presently be in the cards. But it will remain a strong 現在の in Catalan politics and is indicative of the larger problems within the EU that 脅す the 正直さ of the Union at least as much as Brexit.
In country after European country, the 傾向 away from the 中心 continues and presently grows. As the Washington 地位，任命する´s Ishaan Tharoor 観察するs, most 国家主義s are not only 支持する／優勝者d by 積極性 右翼 leaderships and parties 動員するing a 大部分は working or lower middle-class 選挙民 fed up with 存在 left behind. "Another 傾向 to watch せねばならない be the impatient regionalism of more 主要都市の parts of Europe, 失望させるd by the backward politics of their nation-明言する／公表するs," 令状s Tharoor.
The rich defectors are led by Catalonia, Spain´s most 生産力のある 地域 and the one with the strongest independence movement. Catalan 分離主義者s argued that 支払う／賃金ing いっそう少なく in 税金s to the Spanish 政府 would be an 経済的な boon to the 州. But others now show 調印するs of wishing to join, or at least look at the 入り口 料金s, of the 豊富な 脱退／分離 club. Most surprising - since it is part of the 比較して successful German economy - is the southern 明言する／公表する of Bavaria: in July, a 投票 for the popular tabloid Bild showed one in three 好意s independence.
Last month, the northern Italian 地域s of Lombardy and Veneto, the two richest of Italy´s 20 地域s, accounting between them for some 30 per cent of the nation´s GDP, 投票（する）d 圧倒的に for more 自治. The Liga party, strong in the area, had a 政策 of independence. That´s now 穏健なd, but there´s growing 不満 that the 地域´s 税金s are 注ぐd into the much poorer, much いっそう少なく 生産力のある south. The 分割 量s to two separate economies, a problem which 料金d northern 分離主義.
Even in Belgium, the 行政の heart of the EU, the 緊張s are sho wing. The divided reaction to Puigdemont in Brussels - with a Flemish 国家主義者 閣僚 大臣 welcoming him, while the 首相, from the French-speaking Walloon area showed a 冷淡な 直面する - was a glimpse into the fractured politics of the ベルギー 明言する／公表する. The 中心 has given away much of its 力／強力にする to the two main 地域s in an 成果／努力 to 避ける a 完全にする 分裂（する） - and will be 圧力（をかける）d by the richer Flemish 地域 to do still more after 国家の 選挙s in 2019, to the point where the central 明言する／公表する will 中止する to 存在する.
Scotland, whose devolved 議会 is 支配するd by the Scottish 国家主義者s, has seen a dimming of enthusiasm for independence as its 沖合いの／海外の oil reserves and the income from them have 中止するd to 約束 a 豊富な 未来, as even its own 経済的な （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限 has 認める. A botched Brexit, however, could 生き返らせる the movement の中で a 全住民 which 投票（する）d decisively for remaining in the EU. フラン, where the economy is 生き返らせるing, still has independence movements in the island of Corsica (where 国家主義者s now 支配（する）／統制する the 地域の 議会) and the western 地域 of Brittany, where support is still a 少数，小数派 追跡, but growing. (Brittany and Corsica have 概略で 普通の／平均（する） per capita GDPs for フラン; their independence movements are more cultural than 経済的な - though all 国家主義者 movements invoke some cultural difference, often rooted in centuries´ old histories.)
The EU cannot look on these movements with anything but disfavor and alarm. Though the rich 脱退／分離s would - as Catalonia does - wish to remain in the EU, a general exodus would 直面する the union with its largest 危機 yet. Were a 地域 to 後継する in forming a viable 独立した・無所属 明言する／公表する, it would be 要求するd to 適用する for 会員の地位. Its 使用／適用 would not be considered until all 合法的な and 領土の 問題／発行するs had been settled with the country of which it had been a part - a 過程 which might 消費する a １０年間 until the 使用／適用 was successful.
The 普及した 不信 of mainstream 政治家，政治屋s and centra l 政府s, and the 有罪の判決 that 地元の 人民党員s would do a better 職業, now takes a 固める／コンクリート and 脅すing form. 国家主義, which the EU had wished to see fade, even die, now instead 生き返らせるs, いつかs - as in Central Europe - in illiberal, even 権威主義者, forms.
The EU is いっそう少なく and いっそう少なく seen as an ideal, a borderless 連合-in-the-making. Its 過程s - remote, intricate and little understood - lose out when contrasted with the warmth and intimacy of a new-old country which can draw on its history and culture, keep out unwanted 移民，移住（する）s and 回復する pride and 信用. Such is the 約束 of many of the new 国家主義s: the EU can disapprove, but in its still-壊れやすい 明言する／公表する can do little except to hope that the 国家主義者 tide will 退却／保養地. For the moment, it´s still rising. (報告（する）／憶測ing by John Lloyd)
