SIMON LAMBERT: 利益／興味 率s may rise sooner than we think but they won't be 支援する to 'normal' for a long time

By Simon Lambert for Thisismoney.co.uk

Updated: 17:21 BST, 7 November 2013

Can you really rely on 利益／興味 率s not rising until the middle of 2016?

The Bank of England would have you believe so, but ますます 経済学者s are 示唆するing 率s will have to rise sooner. They are looking at the 所有物／資産／財産 market, economy and 信用／信任 heating up and 示唆するing an earlier first 引き上げ（る） from 0.5%.

There is a 見解（をとる） 伸び（る）ing 増加するing traction that 失業 will 落ちる faster than the Bank 予報するd in its 今後 指導／手引, which 誓約（する）d to not consider a raise until this was below 7 per cent.

But this week’s 予測（する） of 率s needing to go up sooner was not tied to this. Instead an earlier rise was tipped by the NIESR think 戦車／タンク, to keep the economy from overheating.

Long time coming: Three years after green shoots were first spotted, things are 現実に starting to 選ぶ up. That could lead 率s to rise faster than 推定する／予想するd.

It 予報するs an ahead of schedule 増加する to stop low 率s from 原因（となる）ing 不安定 - with rising 消費者 spending and house price インフレーション the 可能性のある 誘発する／引き起こすs.

All in all, 今後 指導／手引 is not looking 圧倒的に successful, as the Bank of England 準備するs for its first インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測 since it first 問題／発行するd its 恐らく 安心させるing idea in August.

It got off to an iffy start in summer, when money markets すぐに decided that the base 率 was going to have to go up quicker than the Bank said. Within weeks, they were 予測（する）ing a first rise an entire year earlier than 示唆するd.

Markets have since 静めるd and now put a first rise わずかに earlier in 2016 than the Bank does.
But although 経済学者s arguably have a worse 記録，記録的な／記録する at 予報するing 未来 率s than the market does, in this instance the former could be 権利.

The long-を待つd 回復 is 証明するing to be a surprisingly high octane 事件／事情／状勢 and Britain’s cheap credit 住宅 and 消費者 economy has the 力／強力にする to go on a decent run, even if 非，不，無 of its 根底となる 欠陥s have been 直す／買収する，八百長をするd.

So, yes 率s could be rising sooner than we think.

But while this will be welcome news to savers’ ears, even if 率s do rise to 0.75 per cent in 2015 or 2014, it is 高度に ありそうもない they will be 長，率いるing 支援する to ‘normal’ any time soon - usually 裁判官d to be about 5 per cent.

We have built our recove ry on low 利益／興味 率s and cheap credit 存在 pumped into the economy, first through quantitative 緩和, then through 基金ing for Lending and now 経由で Help to Buy.

Those 支え（る）s will 結局 need to be 除去するd and it will be the money pumping that goes first.

Firstly, that’s because you can’t keep throwing money at the 塀で囲む forever and, secondly, because there is a real 恐れる that Britain’s ひどく-mortgaged homeowners, personal borrowers and 商売／仕事s won’t be able to stomach 率s even halfway to normal.

Money markets don’t call 率s as 存在 at 3 per cent a １０年間 from now - the curve the Bank of England uses in its インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測 現在／一般に 示唆するs a shade under 2.5 per cent in 2023.

Move that far into the 未来 and market 予測（する）ing is 悪名高くも difficulty, but there is a stark contrast between their 見解（をとる） and the perception that once the first rise comes we will soon be on our way 支援する to 5 per cent.

The problem is our economy might just be （麻薬）常用者d to low 率s and it’s going to take a long time to go 冷淡な turkey.