Could higher 率s still 配達する a mortgage 危機?

• Every month 125,000 mortgage 支えるもの／所有者s reach the end of cheap 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 取引，協定s 
• Many find they're moving to 率s that are two, three or even four times higher 
• We look at how likely this is to become a 危機 and what may be the tipping point

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Since mortgage 率s began rising, many of the nine million mortgaged 世帯s in the UK and の近くに to two million landlords have been 直面するd with the prospect of much higher 支払い（額）s.

Many had become accustomed to ultra-low 利益／興味 率s for more than a １０年間.

In this six-part series, we look at how much more people are really 支払う／賃金ing when they take out a new mortgage, how 世帯s are 対処するing and if a mortgage 危機 is 進行中で.

Here we look at whether a mortgage 危機 could still 広げる over the coming months and years. 

Have lockdown 貯金 保護するd borrowers?

It's hard to imagine that after a cost of living 危機 that saw 二塁打-digit インフレーション erode everyone's spending 力／強力にする, that people may be in a better position to 対処する with higher mortgage 率s now than they were in the past.

The pandemic 点火（する）d something of a 貯金 にわか景気, as the 強制s of lockdown and impetus of 経済的な 不確定 resulted in many people spending いっそう少なく and saving more.

In the 12 months 事前の to the pandemic, the total 貯金 deposited by Britons rose £70 billion from £1.43 一兆 to £1.5 一兆, によれば Bank of England 人物／姿／数字s.

In the 12 months after the first lockdown began, from 31 March 2020 to 31 March 2021, the 量 saved rose by £180 billion from £1.5 一兆 to £1.68 一兆.

This 代表するs more than a 150 per cent 貯金 増加する during the first 12 months of the pandemic, when compared to the previous year.

And while 貯金 にわか景気d, the UK also saw higher 行う growth than in previous years.

In the four years between February 2020 and February 2024 普通の／平均（する） 正規の／正選手 支払う／賃金 (除外するing 特別手当s) rose by 24 per cent, によれば the ONS. That's わずかに higher than the 22 per cent 消費者 prices 索引 インフレーション over the same period.

Of course, each 世帯's 状況／情勢 will be different. There will be some that were not able to build up their 貯金 during the pandemic and others that will have not seen their incomes rise.

For those who did not 利益 from the pandemic 貯金 急ぐ or 行う price spiral, the higher costs of goods or services will be more painful. 

People are also typically 気が進まない to 下落する into their 貯金 to cover 高度に 月毎の 法案s and so even those who did build up a lockdown マリファナ, will feel poorer.

'Borrower circumstances may have changed and given a stronger 壇・綱領・公約 to 天候 the 嵐／襲撃する,' says David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages.

'Certainly 世帯s tended to build up 貯金 reserves in the pandemic, so some may be having to call on those reserves to help を取り引きする the 現在の 状況／情勢.

'That could 許す the mortgage to be 減ずるd when they come to the end of the 現在の 取引，協定 for example.'

税金 凍結するs eat into 支払う／賃金 rises 

It's important to also remember that many personal 税金 thresholds have been frozen in cash 条件 since April 2021, 反して 以前 most were 予定 to rise in line with 消費者物価指数 インフレーション.

This has dragged more people into higher 税金 禁止（する）d, for example, the number of 労働者s 支払う／賃金ing 40 per cent 税金 on some of their income has 増加するd 大幅に.

一方／合間, the 45 per cent 税金 threshold has been lowered from £150,000 to £125,140.

The 60 per cent ごくわずかの 率 税金 罠（にかける） for those who have their personal allowance 除去するd ab ove £100,000 has also not budged.

All of this いわゆる 会計の drag pulls more people's 支払う／賃金 rises into higher 税金 禁止（する）d. 

As Chris Sykes, mortgage technical 経営者／支配人 at 私的な 財政／金融, puts it: 'と一緒に the cost of living, 行う 増加するs are taxable, if you get a 5 per cent raise you might 井戸／弁護士席 be 支払う／賃金ing 税金 on that 5 per cent so leaving with 逮捕する may be 3.5 per cent if you're a higher 率 taxpayer.'

How much more could people 直面する 支払う／賃金ing on mortgages? 

Many people coming to the end of their five-year, three-year, or two-year 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 率 mortgage today will be on a 率 of 2 per cent or いっそう少なく.

The 普通の／平均（する） five-year 直す／買収する，八百長をする is 現在／一般に 5.5 per cent, によれば Moneyfacts, while the 普通の／平均（する） two-year 直す／買収する，八百長をする is 5.93 per cent.

The 普通の／平均（する） 量 存在 held by borrowers on a 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 率 mortgage is 現在／一般に £164,000, によれば UK 財政／金融 data.

A £164,000 mortgage on a 2 per cent 率 with 20 years left to run would cost £830 a month.

But on a 5.5 per cent 率 over the same 返済 timespan the 月毎の costs rise by £298 per month to £1,128 a month.

If a homeowner has 40 per cent 公正，普通株主権 in their home, they might be able to 安全な・保証する a lower five-year 率 of around 4.5 per cent, or around 4.8 per cent if 直す／買収する，八百長をするing for two years. 

Switching a £164,000 mortgage to a 4.5 per cent 率 on a 20 year 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 would see someone 支払う／賃金ing £1,038 a month.

The 衝撃 is much greater for those with big mortgages. A borrower with a £400,000 mortgage 優れた and 20 years left to run 転換ing from a five-year 直す／買収する，八百長をする at 2 per cent to a five year 直す／買収する，八百長をする at 4.5 per cent, would see 月毎の 支払い（額）s jump from £2,023 to £2,530.

This is a £507 月毎の jump, equating to £6,084 per year, which is £10,000 before 税金 for a higher 率 taxpayer. 

This is Money's mortgage calculator below, 許すs you to see how much higher 率s will cost people with different sized mortgages. 

Incomes are ありそうもない to match mortgage rises 

Some of the sting will have been taken out of a jump in mortgage costs by rising 給料, but as we explained above 税金 has eaten into the 利益s. 一方／合間, the cost of living crunch has sent other 法案s up to, from energy and broadband, to food and discretionary spending.

Peter Stimson, 長，率いる of 製品 at Mpowered Mortgages, thinks rising incomes by and large won't have gone up enough to 会合，会う the higher mortgage costs.

He says: 'Those re-財政／金融ing might have seen their mortgage 支払い（額）s 増加する by one-third.

'In 新規加入 to their 現在の mortgage, many 顧客s also took out cheap 財政／金融 取引，協定s 事前の to the 利益／興味 率 raises, 特に for 消費者 items such as cars, which need to be factored into affordability 実験（する）s.

'Higher salaries can help with the affordability challenge, but given that mortgage affordability has been 減ずるd by around a whopping 30 per cent since 2022, this doesn't always help enough.'

Could the mortgage crunch s till turn into a 危機?

It's looking ありそうもない that 現在の 利益／興味 率s will be enough to 原因（となる） a 十分な blown 危機, as long as 雇用 remains strong and the 比較して tight 職業s market supports 給料.

Although mortgage arrears rose わずかに by 3 per cent in the first three months of this year compared to the previous three months, によれば UK 財政／金融 data, we remain a long way off the levels seen during the 2008 財政上の 危機.

In 2009, mortgage arrears were 概略で 二塁打 what it is now. Repossession numbers also remain very low compared to historic norms, によれば UK 財政／金融

That said mortgage 率s have been 支援する on the rise since the start of February after を受けるing six months of 連続する 削減（する）s.

At the start of the year the lowest five-year 直す／買収する，八百長をするs were below 4 per cent. Now they are hovering around 4.5 per cent. 

T he lowest two-year 直す／買収する，八百長をするs were just above 4 per cent in January. Now they are hovering closer to 5 per cent.

Even わずかに higher 率s 追加する to the 全体にわたる squeeze 直面するing 世帯s and could 押し進める up  arrears.

利益／興味 率s and the economy

This 上向き trajectory for mortgage costs has a lot to do with what markets and 投資家s 予測（する） for 利益／興味 率s. 

At the start of the year, markets were 予測（する）ing there to be six or seven base 率 削減（する）s by Christmas, but they have since rolled 支援する on this to just two.

最終的に, what the 未来 持つ／拘留するs for 利益／興味 率s will 大いに depend on the 率 of インフレーション.

But it will also hinge on the 見通し of the UK economy と一緒に 行う growth and 失業. 

At the moment the economy appears to be 持つ／拘留するing up with 経済成長 faster than 推定する／予想するd. 

UK GDP (甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品) grew 0.4 per cent in March, に引き続いて a 0.2 per cent rise in February, with growth in the first ４半期/4分の1 of 0.6 per cent. As a result Britain 公式に 出口d 後退，不況

Nicholas Hyett, 投資 経営者／支配人 at Wealth Club said: 'The Bank of England will be 特に pleased with itself looking at these numbers. 

'With the economy looking healthy, a 率 削減（する） in May would be looking premature now.'

期待s are now that 率s will be 削減（する） in June but the Bank could 持つ／拘留する 会社／堅い, 恐れるing that a 削減（する） now could （一定の）期間 a rise in 未来 if インフレーション 選ぶs up again and the economy runs hotter than 以前 thought. 

Pete Mugleston, managing director and mortgage 専門家 at Online Mortgage 助言者, says: '経済成長 could also 誘発する the Bank of England to 持続する or even raise the base 利益／興味 率 to 妨げる インフレーション, which would result in higher borrowing costs for mortgage 探検者s.

The Bank of England could also be swayed by the 利益／興味 率 決定／判定勝ち（する）s made by other central banks, such as the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) ーするために keep the 続けざまに猛撃する 競争の激しい.

The 議長，司会を務める of the US central bank, the Fed, has 示唆するd that 利益／興味 率s may need to stay higher for longer, while 譲歩するing at least that the next move won't be to 増加する the 率. 

That's in contrast to the Bank of England 知事, Andrew Bailey hinting that Britain could 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s before the US.

Bailey said that 進歩 in the 戦う／戦い against インフレーション may mean it needs to 削減（する） 率s by more than markets 現在／一般に 推定する／予想する.

He said: 'There is no 法律 which says that the Fed must mov e first and everyone else 含むing us moves afterwards.

'With the 進歩 we've made... it is likely that we'll need to 削減（する） the Bank 率 in the coming ４半期/4分の1s, かもしれない more so than is 現在／一般に 定価つきの into markets.' 

However, even if 削減（する）s do arrive, base 率 could only 落ちる so much over the coming months and years - perhaps sticking at around 4 per cent or higher.

During the last 財政上の 危機, the Bank of England 削減（する） base 率 from 5.75 per cent in July 2007 to 0.5 per cent in March 2009 - the lowest point in more than 300 years of bank 率 history.

It did this to support the economy at the time. There is an argument that the 通貨の 政策 委員会 will prefer to keep 率s higher to 確実にする it has this agrressive 率 cutting 道具 in its 兵器庫 were another 危機 to 広げる.

Could a wave of 失業 change everything? 

If 率s are ありそうもない to 原因（となる） a 危機, a large uptick in 失業 might do, with people suddenly out of a 職業 and unable to 支払う／賃金 their mortgage. This was the 運動ing 軍隊 behind the 早期に 1990s 後退，不況 and mortgage 危機, along with the preponderence of variable 率 mortgages.

An 失業 spike would have the 可能性のある to kickstart an arrears and repossession 危機. But again the 人物／姿／数字s are 持つ／拘留するing up to date.

While the 失業率 saw another slight uptick to 4.2 per cent in the three months to Jan, によれば the ONS, it remains low from a historical 見地, 井戸／弁護士席 below the 7.54 per cent r ecorded in 2009 in the 影響 of the 財政上の 危機.

Paul Dales, 長，指導者 経済学者 at 資本／首都 経済的なs said: 'The main message is that without a big rise in 失業, there is ありそうもない to be a worrying rise in mortgage defaults. 

'The 危険 of a big rise in 失業 appears to be fading now that the 後退，不況 appears to have ended and as the 後退，不況 was so short and small. 

'To get a big rise in 失業 you would need something new to 誘発する／引き起こす a big 経済的な 下降 or a 後退，不況. 

'That's ありそうもない to be higher 利益／興味 率s or much tighter 財政政策 than 現在／一般に planned, so it may need to be some overseas shock or something breaking in the UK or 全世界の 財政上の system.'

In UK 財政／金融's 最新の 世帯 review, 物陰／風下 Hopley, director of 経済的な insight and 研究 said: 'In this cycle, with 失業 始める，決める to remain low and 広範囲にわたる 貸す人 forbearance helping the 広大な 大多数 of 顧客s in arrears to 回復する their position, we 推定する／予想する 所有／入手s to remain very low by historic comparisons. 

'For the small 少数，小数派 who are unable to do so, this will not 料金d through into 所有／入手 numbers until next year.

'We 推定する／予想する 圧力 on mortgage 支払い（額）s to continue through this year. But, with a benign 雇用 picture and 広範囲にわたる, tailored forbearance, the 産業 will be able to help the 広大な 大多数 of struggling 顧客s to get 支援する on 跡をつける, keeping 所有／入手s to an 絶対の 最小限.'

Could higher 率s still 配達する a mortgage 危機?