DOMINIC LAWSON: Why Biden's 政策s on Gaza and ウクライナ共和国 are driven more by America's イスラム教徒 投票者s, and the price of oil, than what's happening on the ground

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When 大統領 Biden is trying to decide how to を取り引きする the wars in Gaza and ウクライナ共和国, what do you think is the factor 重さを計るing most on his mind? Answer: Tuesday, November 5.

That's the day the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs 持つ／拘留するs its 大統領の 選挙, to 決定する whether Biden ― or his 共和国の／共和党の 対抗者, Donald Trump ― 持つ／拘留するs the White House. And it's looking 極端に の近くに, which means, under the U.S. 選挙（人）の college system, that everything could 残り／休憩（する） on mere thousands of 投票（する）s in a handful of swing 明言する／公表するs.

Two of those nail-biters are Michigan and Pennsylvania, which 含む／封じ込める 比較して large numbers of イスラム教徒 投票者s ― electors 普通は 推定する／予想するd to turn out for the 民主党員 候補者.

But if, enraged by the 状況／情勢 in Gaza, thousands of these 投票者s stay at home, that might, in the closest of races, cost Biden the White House.

危険?

So it would be naive to think this has nothing to do with Biden's 決定／判定勝ち（する） last week to 取り消す the 約束d 配達／演説／出産 of Boeing's 共同の Direct Attack 軍需品s (JDAMs) to イスラエル.

This was 表面上は on the grounds that 大統領 Netanyahu's 拡張 of his （選挙などの）運動をする to 爆破 Rafah would put the lives of an unconscionable number of Palestinians at 危険.

It grabbed the headlines in the way Biden would have 手配中の，お尋ね者. Yet it might 原因（となる） the deaths of more innocents in Gaza. JDAMs are 指導／手引 道具s that 変える 'dumb 爆弾s' into precision-guided 'smart 爆弾s', enabling the 使用者 to 避ける what is euphemistically 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語d collateral 損失.

US 大統領 Joe Biden 答える／応じるs to reporters' questions as he leaves St. Edmond's Roman カトリック教徒 Church in Rehoboth Beach?after …に出席するing 集まり on Sunday

However, in 尊敬（する）・点 of the 選挙（人）の 影響 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 大統領 Biden sees, as some have 発言／述べるd, a 'two-明言する／公表する 解答' which has nothing to do with the 未来 of the Middle East.

However bitter and all-消費するing this 問題／発行する is for a section of the American public (特に younger 投票者s), in the end, as the former U.S. （衆議院の）議長 Tip O'Neill said: All politics is 地元の. And few of those 純粋に 国内の considerations count for more, in America, than the cost of filling up your car. The price of ガソリン, in other words.

This explains the さもなければ inexplicable, ーに関して／ーの点でs of the 圧力 the Biden 行政 has been putting on ウクライナ共和国 to stop its 高度に successful drone attacks on oil 精油所s and 貯蔵 施設s in Russia.

戦略?

Last month the U.S. 長官 of Defence, Lloyd Austin, 警告するd ウクライナ共和国 that 'those attacks could have a knock-on 影響 ーに関して／ーの点でs of the 全世界の energy 状況／情勢'. Thi s so delighted the Putin 政権, it 促進するd Austin's 発言／述べるs 経由で its Tass news 機関.

As the American 軍の historian Phillips O'Brien 観察するd: 'It is hard to think of a weirder thing for a U.S. Defence 長官 to say. [But] in one way it was honest, in that Austin was admitting that the 政策 of the U.S. 政府, in an 選挙 year, was 存在 決定するd by the price of oil.'

As he also 観察するd, whenever the U.S. itself has 起訴するd 軍の （選挙などの）運動をするs, not least during World War II, the 的ing of the enemies' oil 施設s was a 決定的な 構成要素 of its 戦略. It is certainly true of the 行為／行う of Russia's （選挙などの）運動をする against ウクライナ共和国, which has 終始一貫して 的d energy 組織／基盤／下部構造.

Smoke 大波s after an 爆発 in northern Gaza, まっただ中に the 現在進行中の 衝突 between イスラエル and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, pictured May 12 2024

The 財政上の Times, which in March 明らかにする／漏らすd the 圧力 Washington was bringing on ウクライナ共和国 to stop its att acks on ロシアの 精油所s, commented then that 'oil prices have risen by about 15 per cent this year, 押し進めるing up 燃料 costs just as U.S. 大統領 Joe Biden begins his （選挙などの）運動をする for re-選挙'.

（頭が）ひょいと動く McNally, a former White House energy 助言者, told the paper: 'Nothing terrifies a sitting American 大統領，／社長 more than a 殺到する in pump prices during an 選挙 year.'

Yes, but there is something 特に absurd in complaining about ウクライナ共和国's 的ing of Russia's oil 産業, when Kyiv is doing 正確に the sort of thing the West's 許可／制裁s 政策 was meant to 達成する, but failed to do.

増加する?

And just as the 封鎖するing of a 供給（する） of JDAMs to the イスラエル Defence 軍隊s might only 達成する the opposite of its 申し立てられた／疑わしい justification, so the Ukrainian attacks on ロシアの 精油所s are not, 現実に, the 推論する／理由 for a 全世界の 増加する in oil prices.

As the U.S. magazine Foreign 事件／事情／状勢s pointed out: 'Washington's 批評 is misplaced: attacks on oil 精油所s will not have the 影響 U.S. 公式の／役人s 恐れる.

'These strikes 減ずる Russia's ability to turn its oil into usable 製品s; they do not 影響する／感情 the 容積／容量 of oil it can 抽出する or 輸出（する）. In fact, with いっそう少なく 国内の 精製するing capacity, Russia will be 軍隊d to 輸出（する） more of its 天然のまま oil, not いっそう少なく, 押し進めるing 全世界の prices 負かす／撃墜する rather than up.'

So, not only do Biden's electioneering-based 決定／判定勝ち（する）s in Gaza and ウクライナ共和国 run 反対する to the 利益／興味s of nations the U.S. 指定するs as 同盟（する）s in war, they don't make sense in their own 条件.

They certainly don't impress America's 同盟（する）s, while pleasing only their enemies.

AFTER PRICEY TOAST, BEWARE OF RIP-OFF TEA...?

A スキャンダル! That's what the 地元のs in Port Talbot are 説 about the prices 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金d at Remo's cafe, with its 罰金 見解（をとる）s of Aberavon beach. As the Mail 報告（する）／憶測d on Saturday, the 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金 which most 乱暴／暴力を加えるd 訪問者s was the £4 for 'two slices of toast'.

My 見解（をとる） is that the 経営者／支配人, Mr Difrancesco, should be able to 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金 whatever he wants, since no one is 強いるd to eat breakfast at Remo's.

I did find his justification 半端物, though: 'We serve only 手渡す-削減（する） doorstep slices of fresh bread from a 地元の パン屋 that have been toasted and buttered only with real salted butter.'

What, as …に反対するd to unreal salted butter? And as any cook will tell you, the freshest butter is 一般に unsalted, as the salt is used as a preservative. This is one 推論する／理由 salted butter tends to be cheaper (easier for supermarkets to 蓄える／店 for long periods). Also, the salt can mask the taste of lower-質 butter.

The Mail also 報告（する）／憶測d that a cup of tea at the South むちの跡s cafe costs £3.10. I wonder if this would 含む Earl Grey, because, as a いわゆる 賞与金 製品, that's a time-honoured 引き裂く-off.

I learned this from my grandfather, a tea merchant, who told me the best tea was from the tips of the leaves. The lower 負かす／撃墜する the 工場／植物, the lower the 質.

ーするために disguise the tastelessness of the lowest 質 tea, one trick was to 追加する bergamot flavouring. Which is your Earl Grey, the posh 指名する designed to delude 消費者s into thinking it's a superior brew.

And my grandfather regarded tea 捕らえる、獲得するs (as …に反対するd to leaves) as an abomination: not real tea at all. I bet you don't get real tea at Remo's と一緒に 'toast buttered only with real salted butter'.