Is the UK relying too much on 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s to 運動 growth? CHARLES WHITE-THOMSON

|

Charles White-Thomson, the former CEO of Saxo UK, 診察するs how Britain became 麻薬中毒の on cheap borrowing and 財政／金融ing. 

I was once asked the question in a live interview ? is the UK （麻薬）常用者d to cheap money?

Alarm bells rang in my 長，率いる as I analysed the 可能性のある 罠（にかける） of comparing the UK with 中毒. I dodged the question and answered that I thought we were 扶養家族 on cheap money.

Today, I would answer this question 異なって ? the answer would be yes.

Years of money 存在 almost given away, a 過程 driven by 激しく揺する 底（に届く） 利益／興味 率s, at just above 0 per cent, has given our 政治家，政治屋s and borrowers a taste for the sugar highs of cheap borrowing and 財政／金融ing.

Like many things that taste or feel good, and once you have experienced it, you want more and everything else feels a little dull or uninspiring.

It’s the same with cheap money ? it’s instant and short lived 楽しみ as …に反対するd to longer 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 and considered 決定／判定勝ち（する） making.

I think that 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s are at the unwritten heart of the 現在／一般に uninspiring UK growth 計画（する）. 

In the absence of any striking or bold growth 率先s to 打ち明ける the UK’s 財政上の straight jacket, the 戦略 appears to be about waiting for lower 率s to 誘発する／引き起こす the animal spirits and get the economy and 消費者 really going again.

It plays into the psyche and characters of both 追跡（する） and Reeves who are 争う for the Captain Sensible 肩書を与える, or 安全な custodians of the economy - prioritising the status quo with small 繁栄するs versus a bold and 幅の広い growth 計画（する） which engages considered 危険.

Reeves will not want to 激しく揺する the boat, and snatch 敗北・負かす from the jaws of 選挙 victory, if the 投票s are 正確な.

追跡（する） will not want to （名声などを）汚す his ‘安全な pair of 手渡すs persona’ with some higher 危険 政策s. We should 推定する／予想する more of the same as we go into the 選挙.

I continue to believe that the Captain Sensible 戦略 will not 勝利，勝つ the day. In fact, it will 限定する us to a just-getting-by economy. 

This 財政上の predicament will 追加する to a 国家の 苦悩, where are 選択s and choices are constrained, and will resonate with many of the 全住民 who are also just getting by.

We should break this stranglehold and 上げる 歳入 driven by an 完全な growth 計画（する） with considered 危険 taking.

It is also important not to be なぎd into a 誤った sense of 安全 by the February GDP number, where the UK grew by 0.1 per cent. 

The comments around this were telling ? a 祝賀 that we are out of a shallow 後退，不況; roll out the bunting for 0.1 per cent growth!

Though a small 肯定的な step in our return to growth is a good thing, we should not kid ourselves. Our growth is anaemic and celebrating this shows a 根底となる 欠如（する） of ambition.

This 欠如（する） of growth has been a problem for the last 16 years - GDP per capita has grown at a 不振の 0.3 per cent a year between 2007 and 2023.

It is 価値（がある） 公式文書，認めるing 公式文書，認める that 16 years of anaemic growth is a long time even when placed in a historical 状況. 

XAI 資産 管理／経営 have 結論するd that we need to return to the 早期に 1900s, and the horrors of WW1, to find a longer period of 連続した years of 限られた／立憲的な or no growth.

Moving the 利益／興味 率 lever can also be a 二塁打-辛勝する／優位d sword. I believe the 積極性 low 利益／興味 率s we recently experienced did not serve the 大多数 井戸／弁護士席.

The 初期の 動機 was to 突き破る off a 激しい 後退，不況, but 率s were left too low for too long.

It fuelled 資産 prices, 積極的な インフレーション, 刺激するd 泡s and 大打撃を与えるd 生産性 as 事業／計画（する）s were taken on as they were cheap to 財政／金融 versus were they truly viable, to 指名する a few of the 問題／発行するs.

It also gave a 世代 an unrealistic 見解（をとる） on their ‘credit 質’ and the 率s they could borrow at. If you bought physical 資産s and had the 基金s to 減ずる 負債 quickly you would have ridden this wave 井戸／弁護士席.

For the 残りの人，物, cheap 負債 became expensive, インフレーション 爆発するd, 利益／興味 率s 急に上がるd in 返答 and physical 資産 prices in general remained high.

This concoction of 財政上の volatility and 不確定 has consequences 含むing the difficulty of getting on the 住宅 market ladder, and a 拒絶する／低下するing birth 率 as having children just becomes too expensive.

It is also 利益／興味ing to see the 圧力 存在 適用するd to the Bank of England ? 産業 insiders say that if 率s don’t get 削減（する） 中央の-year the economy and 消費者 will 劇的な 苦しむ.

The Bank values their independence and is ありそうもない to 答える／応じる to this sort of 圧力. 

Their 焦点（を合わせる） is to 確実にする that インフレーション has been knocked on the 長，率いる, as a resurgence during a 率 cutting シナリオ would be 損失ing and could 井戸／弁護士席 誘発する／引き起こす a flip flop 率 引き上げ（る）.

The US is experiencing the same 窮地 around the 率 削減（する）s 審議 against an enviable 強健な GDP 見通し ? 井戸／弁護士席s Fargo recently raised their US 2024 GDP 的 to 2.5 per cent.

What does good look like? As with many things it is about balance.

支えるd growth is led by a growth 計画（する） where we 二塁打 負かす／撃墜する on the strengths of the economy, manage our expenses more efficiently, and do not build a 計画（する） which is based 純粋に on cheap money or 積極的な 率 削減（する）s.

率 削減（する）s are welcome, but this is 第２位, and 削減（する）s may take longer to happen than is 現在／一般に 心配するd. 

We learn to stand on our own two feet, driven by our growth 計画（する） as …に反対するd to over 刺激するing the economy and 消費者 and the resulting hangover when 率s rise.

This will create a more balanced and stronger UK and will 配達する 維持できる returns, today and for 世代s to follow.

As I 令状, the Parable of the Sower comes to mind. This 戦略 is about the seed that 落ちるs on the good ground and grows 産する／生じるing thirtyfold, sixtyfold and hundredfold. Not about the seed that 落ちるs on the rocky ground, with little 国／地域 and shallow roots, すぐに sprang up and as the sun rose it was scorched and withered away.

There is much to be excited about as we fantasise about the UK 配達するing on our 抱擁する 可能性のある, creating our own luck, 改善するing our 選択s as …に反対するd to wallowing in negativity and 拒絶する／低下する. 

Returning to Matthew 13 ? ‘whoever has ears, let them hear.’

Is the UK relying too much on 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s to 運動 growth??CHARLES WHITE-THOMSON