EXCLUSIVEWhere will イスラエル-Iran 衝突 爆発する next? Red Sea, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could all be 未来 battlegrounds 誘発するing war 'so 厳しい it would make Gaza look like an entr?e', says 専門家 MICHAEL STEPHENS

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The Red Sea, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could all become 未来 battlegrounds as the 衝突 in the Middle East continues to 増大する, a 軍の 専門家 警告するd today.

緊張s have been 高くする，増すd その上の since Iran's 強襲，強姦 on イスラエル on Saturday まっただ中に イスラエル's war with Hamas in Gaza and its own strikes 的ing Iran in Syria.

早期に this morning, イスラエル 行為／行うd strikes in Iran - 反抗するing US 大統領 Joe Biden's 警告s over 急落（する），激減（する）ing the trouble 地域 その上の into 衝突.

Now, Middle East politics and 安全 専門家 Michael Stephens has analysed the 状況／情勢 in an article for MailOnline, 診察するing what could happen next.

Mr Stephens, who is 上級の associate fellow at the 王室の 部隊d Services 学校／設ける and 研究 group RAND Europe, looked at the 衝撃 on other countries such as Qatar, the UAE and Cyprus - and whether they could become 伴う／関わるd in 未来.

The Middle East teeters on a worrying precipice に引き続いて a week of 報復の ミサイルs strikes between?イスラエル and Iran.

緊張 between the two countries is nothing new. For the past two １０年間s both 味方するs have fought a 影をつくる／尾行する war, through proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, or using 内密の activities, and cyber 戦争 to 的 the other 味方する's 組織／基盤／下部構造.

But importantly, neither country used its 軍の to 率直に strike inside the other's 君主 領土.

This week that タブー was broken, and it places the 地域 into a worrying new dynamic whereby イスラエル and Iran may feel it necessary to keep 報復するing to 避ける looking weak in the 直面する of the other.

As things 現在／一般に stand, events are moving so 急速な／放蕩な that 予報するing how this will play out is difficult, and the level of 緊張 means that a miscalculation by either 味方する could lead to a 早い escalation of 地域の 暴力／激しさ.

It's useful to consider that if things do 増大する, how that might happen, and where that might be.

The 地域 is replete with 可能性のある flash points that could unravel quickly, but some places are more dangerous than others, and as a result are いっそう少なく likely to destabilise すぐに.

The Red Sea is likely the first place to 推定する／予想する more problems.

Iran's Houthi 同盟（する）s are a 高度に 破壊的な 軍隊 in Yemen, after nine years of civil war they have become difficult to dislodge from their bases on the West Coast, and they are in total 支配（する）／統制する of the 資本／首都 city Sanaa.

For four months they have 的d 非軍事の shipping, and have 直面するd 報復 from US/UK 空気／公表する 軍隊s.

However, they 保持する the ability to 的 ships with ミサイルs and drones making travel in the 地域 高度に 危険な.

These attacks could easily 増大する or even be 拡大するd into the Indian Ocean as Iran s eeks to use all means at its 処分 to up the cost of 衝突 for the West.

In Iraq, Shia 民兵s - some of whom are loyal to Iran - connected to 政府 省s have the ability to 的 western 利益／興味s such as 大使館s, oil companies and US 軍の 施設s.

The US run Al Assad 軍の base in western Iraq, and the airbase in the Kurdish 資本／首都 of Erbil has been 的d before.

And the Iranians may consider 的ing these bases with 弾道学の ミサイルs or drones, thus dragging the US deeper into the 衝突.?

イスラエル has also 行為／行うd airstrikes against these 民兵s in 2019, and the Israelis may feel その上の strikes would be a good way to 傷つける Iran without 直接／まっすぐに 的ing its 母国 again.

The Israelis may 井戸／弁護士席 decide to up the 賭け金 in Syria, where the 資本／首都 of Damascus is host to several Islamic 革命の Guard 軍団 (IRGC) 軍の 指揮官s and 大軍.

These 部隊s could be used to help 計画（する） Iranian attacks from Syria, 同様に as be the 的s of 報復 from Israeli airstrikes, such as what happened in March when 上級の IRGC 指揮官 Mohamed Reza Zahedi was killed in a 的d Israeli airstrike.

Iran's logistical links from the Syrian 資本／首都 to its 同盟（する）s in Lebanon - Hezbollah - make southern Syria an obvious flashpoint which could see 早い escalation and 報復の strikes between both 味方するs.

Then there is Lebanon itself, where Lebanese Hezbollah has 交流d 解雇する／砲火／射撃 with イスラエル over 5,000 separate times since October 7.

Since then 200 Lebanese and 16 Israelis have been killed, and large areas both 味方するs of the イスラエル-Lebanon 国境 remain depopulated as 非軍事のs have fled in 恐れる.

Hezbollah has an 兵器庫 of ロケット／急騰するs 概算の to be o ver 150,000. If these were 開始する，打ち上げるd they would 圧倒する イスラエル's multilayered 空気／公表する defence system and 原因（となる） 普及した 荒廃 across the country.

A cloud of smoke 負かす／撃墜する the road from an 爆発 in Nuseirat in the Gaza （土地などの）細長い一片 on Wednesday

Israeli 兵士s in the Gaza （土地などの）細長い一片 まっただ中に continuing 戦う／戦いs, in a photograph 解放（する）d yesterday

Palestinians 検査／視察する the 損失 to a building at Nuseirat in the central Gaza （土地などの）細長い一片 yesterday

イスラエル would have to 侵略する Lebanon in 報復, 主要な to a war so 厳しい it would make Gaza look like an entr?e course.?

Given how bad this 結果 could be, it is ありそうもない either Iran or イスラエル would 押し進める for an all-out 衝突 in the north unless things got so bad that there was 簡単に no other 選択.

Then of course there's イスラエル and Iran th emselves.

Given the large distance between the two countries it's not like either could 直接／まっすぐに 侵略する, but both countries 所有する 重要な 弾道学の ミサイル 能力s and scenes like the night of April 13 could certainly become a 正規の／正選手 occurrence.

This would be of 深い 関心 to the US and its Western 同盟（する）s such as the UK which are committed to イスラエル's defence.

A plume of smoke during Israeli 砲撃 in Gaza City yesterday まっただ中に the 衝突

Palestinians 検査／視察する the 場所／位置 of an Israeli strike on a house in Rafah in Gaza on Wednesday

Israeli 兵士s 解雇する／砲火／射撃 迫撃砲s from southern イスラエル に向かって the Gaza （土地などの）細長い一片 on Wednesday

While イスラエル is 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑うd to have 核の 武器s, Iran 現在／一般に has not yet produced a 武器 of its own, and so there's thankfully no chance of a mushroom cloud appearing in the Middle East any time soon.

It's 価値（がある） nothing that Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the 部隊d Arab 首長国s host 重要な US bases, which 含む a strong UK 軍の presence.?

This could be used to help police the skies between イスラエル and Iran if things do become even worse.

However, these countries have been （疑いを）晴らす that no 報復の strike on Iran can be 開始する，打ち上げるd from these bases, and they will not 受託する 存在 pulled into a wider イスラエル/US versus Iran 対決.

So, the 見込み of 衝突 breaking out inside the 湾 is やめる low.

A Palestinian 検査／視察するs the 損失 to a building at Nuseirat in the central Gaza （土地などの）細長い一片 yesterday

People stand まっただ中に the 損失 原因（となる）d by 解雇する／砲火／射撃 after an Israeli attack in Duma on Wednesday

Israeli 軍の 乗り物s 運動 along a 荒廃させるd street in the Nur Shams 難民 （軍の）野営地，陣営 today

But far more likely is the disruption of shipping through the 海峡s of Hormuz by Iranian 海軍の 資産s, as has happened many times before, which would 軍隊 up oil prices and ひどく 混乱に陥れる／中断させる as much as a third of the world's energy 供給（する）s.?

This all makes for a very worrying picture, where 多重の flashpoints can （海，煙などが）飲み込む the 地域 in a much wider 衝突.

Iran's 資産s across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen mean that it has many 圧力 points it can 押し進める on to 増加する the 苦痛 if things 増大する.

一方／合間 イスラエル's vastly superior 軍の 科学（工学）技術 means it can strike 正確に at Iranian 資産s any place and any time.

Lebanese 村人s pass by a building destroyed by Israeli 爆撃する in Kfar Kila, a Lebanese 国境 village with イスラエル, yesterday

Israeli 装甲の 職員／兵員 運送／保菌者s move 近づく the Israeli-Gaza 国境 on Wednesday

An Israeli house in the northern Israeli 国境 town of Metula 損失d by Hezbollah 爆撃する, seen from the Lebanese 味方する of the Lebanese-Israeli 国境 village of Kfar Kila yeste rday

People visit the 開始する of Olives in the Old City of Jerusalem today as the 衝突 continues

There is much 緊急の 外交 taking place in the 地域 that will hopefully 許す cooler 長，率いるs on all 味方するs to 勝つ／広く一帯に広がる.

The most important thing will be to 許す both イスラエル and Iran an off-ramp from their 現在の cycle of escalation before things get any worse.

The only 肯定的な is that にもかかわらず the headline-grabbing sight of ミサイルs 飛行機で行くing 支援する and 今後, no one has 現実に been killed - and 非軍事のs have not been the ーするつもりであるd 的s.

So there's still time for 外交 to 勝つ／広く一帯に広がる and for the 地域 to 避ける a wider war.