Could the 最近の 記録，記録的な／記録する 降雨 leave our supermarket 棚上げにするs empty?

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British 農業者s have long been at the mercy of the 天候. A bad season can 原因（となる） untold 損失 to a 収穫 and have 破滅的な 財政上の 関わりあい／含蓄s.

The 最近の 降雨 is nothing new, but after years of extreme 天候 there is now a 危険 that it could start to 意味ありげに 混乱に陥れる／中断させる Britain's 供給（する） chains.

And it is not just British 農業者s that have been 影響する／感情d.

Washout: 激しい 降雨 is having a 悲惨な 衝撃 on British farming?

危険に 最高気温s, 干ばつs and 解雇する／砲火／射撃s are 影響する／感情ing other countries, 含むing those from which Britain 輸入するs goods.

Last year there were 普及した food 不足s in supermarkets, 大部分は 予定 to a 干ばつ in the Mediterranean and North Africa.

As Britain reaches a 記録，記録的な／記録する 降雨 in the last 18 months and other countries experience extreme 気温s, could we start to see empty 棚上げにするs again?

And will Britons have to change the way they shop in the 直面する of extreme 天候 events and 気候 cha nge?

'A lot of 刈るs won't be 工場／植物d this year': How British 農業者s are 影響する／感情d? by bad 天候

The woes of British 農業者s were thrust into the limelight when Jeremy Clarkson's TV show, which 文書d his struggles running his farm in the Cotswolds, 空気／公表するd in 2021.

Extreme 天候 played a 重要な 役割 as 豪雨 interrupted his 工場／植物ing and cultivation. But these 問題／発行するs have been 疫病／悩ますing 農業者s for far longer.

Joe Stanley, an arable 農業者 based in Leicestershire tells This Is Money that since 2018, the 天候 has 'dropped off a cliff from a 農業者's point of 見解（をとる）.'

'農業者s have always said about three ４半期/4分の1s of the final 刈る 産する／生じる is 負かす／撃墜する to the 天候, and everything else we do as 農業者s is really just 肉親，親類d of faffing around the 辛勝する／優位s.'

In the last few years, Britain has seen 記録，記録的な／記録する 最高気温s and 干ばつs, 同様に as extreme 降雨 and 冷淡な （一定の）期間s.

The rec ent 記録，記録的な／記録する 降雨 over the past 18 months is 単に a 延長／続編 of this 傾向, and it is 厳しく 損失ing 生産／産物.

'Every season has been extreme and that 料金d through to really challenging 条件s to grow 刈るs - wheat, barley, oats. A lot of 刈るs will not be 工場／植物d this year so there will not be straw for 料金d or hay for bedding,' Stanley says.

'We don't have the grass we'd like to have so livestock are indoors longer, using up 料金d that they would have been saving for next winter.'

Jeremy Clarkson's TV show 最高潮の場面d some of the 問題／発行するs British 農業者s have been 直面するing

Rachel Hallos, 副／悪徳行為 大統領，／社長 of the 国家の 農業者s' Union (NFU) says she has heard from members that have 'nothing in the ground and what is in the ground is 基本的に dead.'?

Stanley says he will only be able to 工場／植物 around 10 to 15 per cent of the usual 刈るs this season, and it seems to be replicated across the country.

A 最近の 調査する by the 農業 and Horticulture 開発 Board 設立する that 産する／生じるs of 刈るs like wheat, winter barley and oilseed 強姦 are likely to be 意味ありげに 減ずるd 予定 to the 最近の wet 天候.

Oilseed 強姦 産する／生じる is 推定する／予想するd to 減少（する） 28 per cent, the biggest 削減 since the 1980s, while wheat and barley are 推定する／予想するd to 落ちる 15 and 22 per cent それぞれ.

Stanley says: 'We will be 収穫ing this summer and it looks like there's going to be a 重要な 不足 of 国内で produced UK wheat.'

The frequency of extreme 天候 is giving farms little time to 回復する. The most 生産力のある land in the UK is low-lying land, but the 容積／容量 of rain means that it has not possible.

Once water is in the fields, it is a waiting game until it 乾燥した，日照りのs.

Last October, 嵐／襲撃する Babet 荒廃させるd farms across the country and many farms are still 取引，協定ing with the consequences.

'We were looking to 工場／植物 most of our 刈るs in October but 嵐／襲撃する Babet comes along and blows that out of the water,' says Stanley.?

'Not only did it mean that after the 嵐／襲撃する we didn't get 支援する into the field, and still 港／避難所't got 支援する into the field again since, but the 刈るs that we had 工場／植物d before the 嵐／襲撃する were 溺死するd and killed.'

農業者 Joe Stanley will struggle to 工場／植物 many 刈るs this year because of extreme 降雨

Hallos says plenty of farms have been underwater since last autumn, meaning there is a very short window in the spring to 工場／植物 barley, wheat and oilseed 強姦.

追加するd to that, extreme 天候 events blur the seasons in which 農業者s tend to 工場／植物 their 刈るs, giving them little time to adapt.

'Up until 2018, you could more or いっそう少なく rely on the seasons doing what they'd always done,' says Stanley. 'Almost to the month you knew what the 天候 was going to do.'

'We're seeing extreme events happen across the world'

These 問題／発行するs, while 破滅的な for 農業者s, don't やむを得ず mean there will be 普及した 不足s though.

In the UK, we 輸入する half of the food we 消費する, によれば the Energy & 気候 知能 部隊. Around half of that is made of 商品／必需品s we do not, or cannot, grow.

Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, professor of food systems at University of the West of England tells This Is Money: 'There's not really a direct link between the 量 of food that we produce here and what is 利用できる on our 棚上げにするs.?

'Of course there are some knock-on 影響s but what tends to happen for many 製品s is we look to our international 供給（する） chains.'

'With flooding for example in places like Lincolnshire, where we have a lot of our vegetable 生産／産物, you'll see some 衝撃 in the supermarket, but the 供給（する） chains will look to source more vegetables from abroad which we already do source a lot of fruit and vegetables 国祭的な anyway.'

While livestock farming has 苦しむd, it will have little to no 影響 on the British 消費者. For example, most lamb 購入（する）d in the UK comes from New Zealand.

Sanderson Bellamy says: 'We're 衝撃d by poor 天候 events in New Zealand more than in the UK. That's the irony of our globalised food system.'

However, there are 重要な shortcomings in the countries that 輸出（する） popular items to the UK too.

NFU 副／悪徳行為 大統領，／社長 Rachel Hallos 警告するs of 供給（する） chain 問題／発行するs 影響する／感情ing supermarkets

Sanderson Bellamy says: 'When it becomes problematic is when we see extreme events happening in 多重の places across the world. Then you start seeing 供給（する） chain 強制s because there's lots of other people in the same boat.'

The picture is no more rosy for the places we 輸入する from. 予測できない 天候 has destroyed 刈るs in west Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia.

Emma Mullins, Fairtrade's 長，率いる of 維持できる sourcing tells This Is Money: 'UK supermarket 中心的要素s such as cocoa, 気が狂って and coffee are amongst the most 攻撃を受けやすい 製品s in 全世界の 供給（する） chains, and, amongst other things, are also most at 危険 from our warming 惑星.'

Fairtrade says 93 per cent of coffee 農業者s in Kenya have 報告（する）／憶測d erratic 降雨 and an 増加する in pests and 病気s. Tea 生産者s in India have 報告（する）／憶測d flooding and 最高気温s, while heatwaves in Ghana are 脅すing the cocoa 刈る.

A Christian 援助（する） 報告（する）／憶測 published last year also 警告するd that eight of the 25 biggest food 輸出業者s to the UK 直面する 'high 気候 vulnerability', 含むing Brazil, South Africa, India and Vietnam.

It means 消費者s could 直面する a 不足 of 気が狂って, grapes, avocados, cashews, cocoa and tea thanks to the changing 天候 patterns.

Additionally, El Nino, which is a 現象 in which the eastern 熱帯の 太平洋の Ocean warms, is 与える／捧げるing to the 大混乱.

'歴史的に El Nino has always wreaked havoc on 農業, but its combinati on in more 最近の times with 気候 change is 証明するing to be 破滅的な, as both raise 全世界の 気温s,' says the Energy & 気候 知能 部隊. 'Together, they're 押し進めるing the 限界s of what 刈るs and livestock can 許容する.'

In particular, it 脅すs rice and some drinks from Asia, which is 存在 攻撃する，衝突する by 女性 季節風 rains, heatwaves, 干ばつs and water 不足s.

The UK 輸入するs 29 per cent of its rice from India and the same 量 of coffee from Vietnam.

Will there be food 不足s?

There have been short periods where supermarkets have been unable to plug the gaps, although these have 大部分は been 原因（となる）d by geopolitical events like the ウクライナ共和国 侵略.

However, a 干ばつ in Spain and Morocco last year led to 重要な 不足s of 中心的要素s like tomatoes and cucumbers in our supermarkets.

The disruption over the past few months, both 国内で and abroad, could have the 可能性のある to 原因（となる） 類似の disruption to 供給（する） chains, albeit not すぐに.

Hallos says: 'I think it's too 早期に to call… the 論理（学）の 結論 would be that there are going to be some 供給（する） chain 問題／発行するs その上の 負かす／撃墜する the line. How the retailers を取り引きする that, I don't know. They will find a way.'

Empty 棚上げにするs: 消費者s 直面するd food 不足s last year thanks to changing 天候

Retailers, and 農業者s to an extent, have 一般に been able to plug the gap in other periods of extreme 天候, but it could soon become unsustainable.

'We're finding that the 天候 is becoming so extreme that the things we have been developing are no longer 十分な,' says Stanley. 'When you get 60-70mm of rain in 12 hours, it's going to 圧倒する any system'

小売 専門家 Jonathan De Mello thinks food 不足s 'have already played out.. It's not a new thing'. Rather than 気候 明確な／細部 問題／発行するs, he says it is '供給者s playing 瀬戸際政策 with the grocers 説 they're going to 卸売物価s.'

However 農業者s 警告する that unless they are able to 増加する 利益（をあげる）s, this 危険 will only grow.

Stanley says 'the best thing we can do to help 農業者s build resilience into their land is to 許す 農業者s to be more profitable.'

Reinvesting 利益（をあげる）s into more resilient farming systems would help with the 問題／発行するs at play, he says.

Mullins 追加するs: '１０年間s of low income for the 農業者s means they have not been able to 投資する in 対策 to 保護する their 商売／仕事 against the 影響s of 気候 change.

'Without fairer prices, which 許す 生産者s to 投資する in 対策 to mitigate 気候 change, it will be harder to 取り組む the challenges going 今後.'

Will we have to change our eating habits?

Changing 天候 patterns could mean that the UK could start to produce different types of 刈るs.

Sanderson Bellamy says: 'With 気候 changes, we're 心配するing that parts of the UK could become more 生産力のある. 一般に warmer 気温s would 全体にわたる 利益 UK 農業, but the 大規模な caveat is the 気候 extreme events.'

The 不確定 will continue to leave 農業者s at the mercy of the 天候, with little ability to 計画（する）.

'You don't know when they're going to come, you don't know the nature of them. Without having a 水晶 ball you don't know 正確に／まさに how that's going to 衝撃,' she says.

'It's when we start seeing the cascading 影響s and start to see 多重の 地域s 衝撃d… 代用品，人ing becomes more difficult because there's nothing to 代用品，人 as there's so many events happening around the world.'

While supermarkets might be able to plug the gap in 国内の 生産／産物 for now, if this extreme 天候 is replicated across the globe, 消費者s might be 軍隊d to change the way they eat.

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