What does 総理大臣 Boris Johnson mean for your 財政／金融s? SIMON LAMBERT on the tussle between 税金 削減（する）s, spending and Brexit

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Where do we go now? Boris Johnson’s arrival as 総理大臣 （一定の）期間s another leap into the unknown for Britain and for our 財政／金融s.

Boris’s path to 負かす／撃墜するing Street was 配達するd by a resounding victory in the Tory leadership contest rather than a 総選挙, 許すing him to get in with only some very loosely defined 政策s.

The biggest noises の中で the things he hinted at were those that would 影響する／感情 our personal 財政／金融s, cutting stamp 義務, lowering 税金s and sorting the social care mess.

On the nation’s 財政／金融s, he also signals a change in the mood music. Boris looks far more likely to 緩和する the purse strings, 削減（する） 税金s and 増加する spending.

Boris Johnson as 総理大臣 代表するs another leap into the unknown for Britain, with 約束s to 削減（する） 税金s and spend more but also consider a no-取引，協定 Brexit

A 願望（する） to be a （人が）群がる-pl easer may mean he is willing to think bigger and bolder on some problems that people have long 不平（をいう）d about.

At the same time, he is likely to be いっそう少なく worried about balancing the 調書をとる／予約するs and 存在 seen to be giving money to the wealthier.

Stamp 義務, the 年金 年次の and lifetime allowance, the 60 per cent 所得税 禁止（する）d as the personal allowance is 除去するd above £100,000, raising the higher 率 税金 threshold, and 簡単にするing 相続物件 税金 all look like Boris-style moves ? if only because they sound like 正確に／まさに the 肉親，親類d of thing he would have railed against in his newspaper columns.

If Boris has any sense ? and I 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う that under all the bluster he may have ? he will match every perceived giveway to the richer in society with an even better one for the poorer.

Under normal circumstances, if we get that Boris then you would 推定する／予想する it to put a bit of swagger in the economy’s step and be good for people’s 財政／金融s and 投資家s, at least in the 近づく 未来.

But that very 近づく 未来 also 含むs Brexit.

Boris has 約束d to get Britain out of the EU by 31 October ? and if that means no 取引，協定, so be it.

本人自身で, I 疑問 we’ll be leaving by that date, or that he wants no 取引，協定.

The 誓約（する） to get us out by the 最新の Brexit 最終期限 and the no 取引，協定 脅し is 存在 used as a 取引ing 半導体素子 by Boris ? meaning that he is likely to step up some ostentatious no 取引，協定 planning.

The problem is that the EU can see this coming a kilometre off, although Boris’s 予測できない character means European leaders will be more 納得させるd that he is not 簡単に calling their bluff. Behind の近くにd doors, the conversations will 回転する around ‘he might just 現実に do it’.

In Boris’s favour, we aren’t the only ones who want this done ? the EU is also mightily fed up of the time 存在 spent on Brexit ? and you 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う both 味方するs would be 高度に amenable to a 直面する-saving 妥協 over the contentious Irish backstop (the 肉親，親類d that means they could both （人命などを）奪う，主張する victory).

Working against our new 総理大臣 is that 議会 is very keen to take away Boris’s no 取引，協定 取引ing 半導体素子 and he has a wafer thin 大多数.

His 大多数 is just two at the time of 令状ing, 含むing DUP support, and かもしれない one after the Brecon & Radnorshire 補欠選挙 next week.

Tie this into Boris’s hinted expansionary 経済的な 計画（する）s and you have the 可能性のある for a binary 結果: Britain could either see a big 救済 bounce, or a sizeable 低迷 as 恐れる takes 持つ／拘留する.

Boris is not my choice for 総理大臣, but nor do I want him to fail - as so many seem to do ? 大部分は because I’d like to see Britain 後継する, whoever is in 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金.

In the 合間, 推定する／予想する more volatility and かもしれない an even greater leap into the unknown at some point.

Boris and his ideas: What could it mean for your money

Stamp 義務

Cutting stamp 義務 would be a popular move. What was once a flat 率 税金 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金d at 1 per cent, was changed by Gordon Brown to cash in on high house prices and has been used for 類似の 目的s by その後の （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長s ever since.

This is a 税金 that only 影響する／感情s most people a handful of times in their lives ? many will not move home more than five times ? but it can lead to them 支払う／賃金ing out thousands if not tens of thousands of 続けざまに猛撃するs at a time when they need as much money as possible for a deposit.

First-time 買い手s have been taken out of the stamp 義務 逮捕する up to £300,000, but for those buying as a couple neither must have ever owned a home before.?

If they buy a home costing between £300,000 and £500,000, first-time 買い手s only 支払う／賃金 the 義務 between these thresholds, but if they buy for more than £500,000 they 直面する a 十分な stamp 義務 法案.

Boris has hinted at axing stamp 義務 up to £500,000 完全に and 精密検査するing upper 率s that 徴収する £43,750 on a £1million home and £93,750 on one costing £1.5million.

However, there has also been talk of a more 過激な 精密検査する, 転換ing the 法案 to 販売人s not 買い手s, which would in theory lower the 法案s of all those going up the ladder, but not those downsizing.

除去 of stamp 義務 up to £500,000 would save people £5,000 on a £300,000 home and £15,000 on a £500,000 home, any 転換 その上の up the 規模 has the 可能性のある to save 買い手s tens of thousands.

> Use our stamp 義務 calculator?

Social care

Britain’s social care system, 特に looking after adults in later life, is a mess. Care home 料金s have spiralled in 最近の years and now cost £844 per week on 普通の／平均（する）, which 作品 out at almost £44,000 a year.

Some get help from the 明言する／公表する, but others with 資産s or 所有物／資産／財産 価値（がある） more than £23,250 must 支払う／賃金 all their 法案s themselves.

A 包括的な review was carried out into social care by Andrew Dilnot in 2011 and recommended raising the wealth threshold to £100,000 and bringing in a lifetime care 法案s cap at £35,000. David Cameron’s 政府 later planned a cap at £72,000.

にもかかわらず 幅の広い 是認 非，不，無 of the Dilnot Review was 制定するd and Theresa May's 悲惨な flirtation at the 2017 選挙 with introducing home care 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s and a '床に打ち倒す' rather than a cap with a wealth threshold of £100,000, to which level 資産s would be run 負かす／撃墜する, was branded a ‘dementia 税金’.

取引，協定ing with the social care 危機 was 棚上げにするd and not helped by Brexit 支配するing the 協議事項.

Boris has said 直す／買収する，八百長をするing social care is a 優先. He would be most likely to bring in a Dilnot Review-style 政策. For many who never need to go into a care home this would not save money ? although they would know a better system was in place if they did ? for those who do 結局最後にはーなる spending years in care it could be 価値（がある） tens or hundreds of thousands of 続けざまに猛撃するs.

所得税 and NI 削減（する）

Boris has 示すd a 願望（する） to 解除する the 40 per cent higher 率 税金 threshold from its 現在の £50,000 to £80,000 and also to raise the threshold at which 国家の 保険 kicks in to £12,500 ? in line with the personal allowance.

解除するing the higher 率 税金 threshold would be nefit higher earners, but the argument for it is to 逆転する years of 会計の drag, where the level at which it kicked in failed to keep pace with インフレーション and 給料 and dragged more into its 逮捕する.

The 影響 would be mitigated by the 見込み of the NI upper 収入s 限界 rising in line with this, which would mean that people continued to 支払う／賃金 12 per cent 国家の 保険 up to that £80,000 level.

現在／一般に, 国家の 保険 is 12 per cent up to the upper 収入s 限界 at £962 per week, about £50,000-a-year, and 2 per cent above this.

Those at the other end of the 支払う／賃金 規模 have a 税金-解放する／自由な personal allowance but start 支払う／賃金ing NI at the £166 per week 最初の／主要な 収入s threshold, about £8,600 per year.

A combination of these two moves would mean between £50,000 and £80,000 people now paid a 32 per cent 税金 率 (20 per cent basic 率 加える 12 per cent NI) instead of 42 per cent 現在／一般に.

Those 収入 up to £12,500 would 支払う／賃金 no 税金, compared to 12 per cent now, those 収入 more than that would save on the 12 per cent NI paid up to the 最初の／主要な threshold.

Such a 税金 削減（する） would, of course, cost money.

見積（る）s from the IFS put raising the higher 率 threshold cost at £9billion per year, with the 最高の，を越す 10 per cent of earners benefitting to the tune of £2,500 on 普通の／平均（する）. The biggest 伸び（る）s would go to big income pensioners, who don’t 支払う／賃金 NI.

Raising the 国家の insur ance threshold would £11billion and take 2.4million 労働者s out of the 税金 altogether.

One move that would 利益 only higher earners but 除去する a 厳しい quirk in the 税金 system would be axing the 漸進的な 除去 of the personal allowance above £100,000. Those 影響する／感情d 支払う／賃金 an 効果的な 所得税 率 of 60 per cent between £100,000 and £125,000, at which point their personal allowance is gone 完全に and they switch 支援する to a 40 per cent 率.

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