I'm a 基金 経営者／支配人 and here's why I 支援する big banks Barclays and NatWest
- UK banks are 予報するd to have a difficult time in 2024 as 利益／興味 率s 落ちる
- 利益／興味 率s 落ちるing means 利益（をあげる） 利ざやs will be squeezed?
- The 在庫／株s are 貿易（する）ing at low valuations and 申し込む／申し出 井戸／弁護士席-covered （株主への）配当 産する／生じるs
株 in Britain's big banks are cheap, argue the value 基金 経営者／支配人s who 持つ／拘留する them
But are they cheap for a 推論する／理由 and 予定?a bumpy ride in 2024 予定 to 利益／興味 率s 落ちるing, as the 幅の広い market 合意 持つ／拘留するs, or undervalued and primed to bounce 支援する, as some contrarian 在庫／株-pickers believe?
分析家s believe that outperformance of UK, European and Japanese banks seen in 2023 is 始める，決める to 逆転する this year.
Rising 利益／興味 率s throughout 2022 and 2023 上げるd bank 収入s and 株 prices, 主要な to an 'exceptional' 決起大会／結集させる によれば 分析家s at Liberum - a result of 利益／興味 率s rising from 無, 許すing banks' 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs to normalise and 部分的に／不公平に 逆転するing some of the 地位，任命する-2010 耐える market.??
Now, that 耐える market is 始める，決める to return. Liberum says: 'As we roll into 2024 and the 率 cycle appears to be at or 近づく its 頂点（に達する）, we believe the 構造上の 耐える 事例／患者 will reassert itself.'
Banks are going to have a much tougher time in 2024 than in the last 12 months as 利益／興味 率s start to 落ちる, Liberum 分析家s say
It comes as the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 met with five of the UK's biggest bank bosses to discuss their weak 株 prices and how to 上げる their 株式市場 value.
Banking 長，率いるs at Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group and Santander UK met with the London 在庫／株 交流 Group, the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 and Bim Afolani the 経済的な 長官 to the 財務省 同様に as the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長.
Nonetheless, the 経営者／支配人s of 寺 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業 投資 信用, Nick Purves and Ian Lance, remain bullish on the 事例／患者 for UK big banks and believe they still make good 投資s.
The pair 支援する two of the UK's biggest banks, Barclays and NatWest, which they see as 本気で undervalued,?
NatWest 占領するs a 5.1 per cent 配分 in the 信用's 大臣の地位 and Barclays has a 4 per cent 配分.?
Purves says: 'We would argue that banks have never been 'uninvestable'.
'過密な住居 Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has in the past owned banks such as 井戸／弁護士席s Fargo, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon and USBancorp. Bank of America is 現在／一般に its second largest position after Apple.
'So if banks are uninvestable, it would appear that one has bothered to tell the 下落する of Omaha.'??
Nick Purves, co-経営者／支配人 of 寺 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業 投資 信用
UK banks have been 深く，強烈に out of favour, because they don't 申し込む／申し出 the same growth prospects as exciting companies like Apple and Microsoft, which are the 現在の 株式市場 darlings.
But for the income 投資家, the banks do 申し込む／申し出 a decent （株主への）配当 産する／生じる with a 比較して stable 支援.?
Laith Khalaf, 長，率いる of 投資 分析 at AJ Bell says: 'I think the big banks are already a reasonable 投資 if you're looking for income as part of a diversified 大臣の地位.?
'These are big, ひどく 規制するd companies, whose fortunes are 深く，強烈に intertwined with those of the 全世界の economy, so they shouldn't be 推定する／予想するd to churn out 驚くべき／特命の／臨時の 収入s growth every year in the same way 投資家s in US tech 在庫／株s have come to 推定する／予想する.'
'収入s will be cyclical and 株 price 評価 probably lumpy, but these 在庫／株s are 貿易（する）ing at low valuations and 申し込む／申し出ing high, 井戸／弁護士席 covered （株主への）配当 産する／生じるs.'
Purves says: '質 growth 投資家s are いつかs 有罪の of a sleight of 手渡す in which they （人命などを）奪う，主張する that a 消費者 製品 商売／仕事, for instance, is a better 商売／仕事 than a bank, because it makes a higher return on 公正，普通株主権.?
'Whilst this is factually 訂正する, it is arguably disingenuous because it fails to consider the valuation paid to 接近 those returns.
'When 商売／仕事s change 手渡すs at fractions of their 調書をとる／予約する value, the price paid for 所有権 can amplify or 鈍らせる the returns 投資家s 最終的に 得る. 簡単に 解任するing a 商売／仕事 model out of 手渡す, without 支払う／賃金ing attention to the price at which that 商売／仕事 is on sale is an abdication of one of the 重要な 責任／義務s of an active 経営者／支配人.'
Banks' 利益（をあげる）s have been under 圧力 for the last few years as 利益／興味 率s （機の）カム 負かす／撃墜する and saving 率s 攻撃する，衝突する the 無 bound but lending 率s also continued to 落ちる, putting 圧力 on 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs.
As 率s started to rise again from the end of 2021, this 状況／情勢 began to 逆転する, 許すing banks to 増加する 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs and hence 利益（をあげる）s again.
A bank's 利益（をあげる）s are derived by taking in deposits on which it 支払う／賃金s 利益／興味, and then lending them out at a higher 率 of 利益／興味. The difference between these 率s (the 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざや) accounts for a 相当な 割合 of most banks' 利益（をあげる）s
The UK's biggest banks have come under 解雇する／砲火／射撃 for not passing on the Bank of England's 利益／興味 率 rises to savers while ramping up mortgage and other borrowing costs, 主要な to （人命などを）奪う，主張するs of '不当利得行為'.
To this, Purves says: 'Whilst it might be convenient for 政治家，政治屋s to try to make banks scapegoats for the cost of living 危機, banks are under no moral 義務 to 持つ／拘留する 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs 負かす／撃墜する.?
'Regulators, on the other 手渡す, should be 利益／興味d in them building their 資本／首都 ahead of any 増加する in 貸付金 losses associated with an 経済的な 下降 and certainly should not be setting a 的d level of profitability.'
Most UK banks are 貿易（する）ing at very low valuations. NatWest's and Barclays are both on a price-to-収入s 割合 of 4.3 looking at 追跡するing 12 months actual 収入s
Liberum says: 'History teaches us to be 用心深い of optically cheap valuations.'
The 問題／発行する of low bank valuations is not unique to the UK though, and we have seen this across Europe.
Purves continues 'If 管理／経営 are able to 証明する 株主s wrong by continuing to 増加する 利益（をあげる）s, long-苦しむing 株主s should finally be able to see a 肯定的な return.'
With 利益／興味 率s 広範囲にわたって 推定する／予想するd to come 負かす／撃墜する later this year though 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs will be compressed.?
Khalaf says: '落ちるing 利益／興味 率s, should they materialise, will be 消極的な for 逮捕する 利益／興味 利ざやs, but at the same time will be 肯定的な for bad 貸付金s, and through 2024 we may see banks trimming their 準備／条項s for defaults.'?
Big tech knocking at the door is not a 脅し
Big tech and AI have long had their sights 始める，決める on the banking 部門 given its data-rich nature and poor 顧客 service experiences.
The 経営者／支配人s of 寺 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業 see no 証拠 that banks are 存在 不正に 混乱に陥れる／中断させるd by fintechs though.
Purves says: 'Many fintechs have been 開始する，打ち上げるd in the past １０年間 to much ファンファーレ／誇示 but the 核心 banking landscape in most countries has not 転換d much as a result.
'For example, NatWest had 19million 顧客s in 2022 ? the same number it had in 2016. The story is the same with other large UK banks, with scant 証拠 of 集まり 顧客 churn 予定 to fintechs.'
Purves 追加するs: 'Big banks are 会社にする／組み込むing and adapting fintech approaches to change the way they interact with their 顧客s ? a point 投資家s afraid of fintech 革新 forget.'
Don't just look at てこ入れ／借入資本ing
分析家s believe the 質 of bank 貸付金 調書をとる／予約するs is much higher than 歴史的に, with 規則 and 監督 having encouraged a more 保守的な approach.
Whilst return 適切な時期s do 存在する for bank 投資家s, some feel they do not 十分に reward 株主s for the 危険s given the 高度に てこ入れ／借入資本d nature of the 商売／仕事.
Purves says: 'Whilst てこ入れ／借入資本 brings with it 危険s, it is important to consider what companies do with the 過程 of that てこ入れ／借入資本, and how they 雇う it in the 状況 of a wider 商売／仕事 model, before reaching 結論s about how risky that borrowing really is.
'Looking at default 率s by 部門 観察するs that banking has one of the lowest cumulative default 率s over a ten-year horizon at 4.2 per cent, whilst 持続する 消費者 goods, 小売 and healthcare sat at 25.6 per cent, 24.3 per cent and 10.4 per cent それぞれ, all 冒険的な far higher 危険s for 投資家s.??
'井戸／弁護士席-managed banks who are able to 答える／応じる to 科学技術の change, whilst managing their balance sheets with the 警告を与える needed when 雇うing borrowed money have a （疑いを）晴らす 投資 事例／患者,' says Purves.?
Income 探検者s might want to take a look at the UK banking 部門, but with such a cyclical 産業 it's important to 持つ／拘留する it as part of （株主への）配当 大臣の地位 which has plenty of （危険などに）さらすs どこかよそで too
