I'm a 基金 経営者／支配人: Why 銀行業者s 投資 信用's?Alex Crooke 支援するs Microsoft but not housebuilders
- Each month, we're putting a 上級の 投資 経営者／支配人 through their paces?
- We want to know where they'd 投資する for the next 10 years and what they'd 避ける
- We also ask about the 未来 of 利益／興味 率s, インフレーション, Tesla, gold and 所有物／資産／財産?
Deciding on where to put your money at the moment isn't 平易な.
The 株式市場 is erratic, 所有物／資産／財産 prices are 落ちるing and インフレーション has decimated people's 貯金 for more than two years.
You might think those in the 投資 管理／経営 産業 have a better understanding of how to 栄える under 現在の circumstances, but even they will often 異なる in their opinions.
Each month, This is Money has decided to put a 上級の 基金 or 投資 経営者／支配人 to 仕事 with a dozen questions that'll 要求する them to go out on a 四肢.
In the hot seat: Each month, we put a 基金 経営者／支配人 to 仕事 with a numbe r of 堅い questions. Next up we have?Alex Crooke, lead 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 of The 銀行業者s 投資 信用
We want to know where they'd 投資する for the next 10 years and what they would 避ける.?
We will 質問（する） our willing professional 投資家s on the 未来 of インフレーション, 利益／興味 率s and the 所有物／資産／財産 market.
の中で other things, we will ask them for their 見解（をとる）s on gold, Tesla and Bitcoin.
This week, we spoke to Alex Crooke, lead 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 of The 銀行業者s 投資 信用.
1. If you could 投資する in only one company for the next 10 years, what would it be?
Alex Crooke replies:?Microsoft. They are so 支配的な in the IT 部門 and a 主要な 投資家 in AI. They're just smart.< /p>
2. What about for the next 12 months?
Lloyds Bank. It's very cheaply valued. It's very unusual for the （株主への）配当 産する／生じる, which is 6 per cent, to be higher than the price to 収入s 割合 (5x).?
I don't see a bad 負債 問題／発行する and I 推定する／予想する 圧力 on deposit 率s to 緩和する next year. If there is any form of lending growth then the 株 price can 回復する 堅固に.?
安全な bet: Alex Crooke says Lloyds Bank is 'very cheaply valued' with a 6% （株主への）配当 産する／生じる
3. Which is the most exciting 部門?
製薬のs. There are some stand-out new 麻薬s coming through, 特に the new appetite 抑えるing obesity 麻薬s.?
The s ector has lagged the market and is also a 防御の play if 経済成長 立ち往生させるs.
4. Which 部門 would you be 避けるing?
Housebuilding. The cost of new mortgages is 極端に high and I can't see how this 緩和するs in the short 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語. It's going to be ますます difficult selling new homes.
取引? Alex Crooke says 中国 is 'undoubtedly cheap' with better growth prospects than the West
5. Which country 申し込む／申し出s the best value in your mind?
中国. It's 深く，強烈に unloved by 全世界の 投資家s, who are still pulling money out of the country.?
It's not a comfortable 投資 but buying at the market lows always is unsettling.?
But it's undoubtedly cheap with better growth prospects than the West. But what price 割引 to 支払う／賃金 for the 悲惨な 明言する／公表する of US and 中国 relations?
6. Should 投資家s 的 growth or value 在庫／株s??
A bit of both. The 開発s in 薬／医学 and AI are going to lead to some growth 在庫／株s continuing to do 井戸／弁護士席.?
平等に as 利益／興味 率s are 削減（する） next year, it gives a breath of life into many value 部門s, like 産業の and 商品／必需品s. A balanced 大臣の地位 feels best positioned.
7. Tesla ? will it 最終的に be にわか景気 or 破産した／（警察が）手入れする???
Tesla is here to stay and will continue to grow its sales, as it 開始する，打ち上げるs new models in more countries. But I can't find a way to 正当化する the 現在の 株 price, unless its self-運動ing 科学（工学）技術 becomes 基準 on all cars.?
最終的に, the 自動車 部門 is 高度に cyclical and valuations are low 親族 to the market to 反映する this. At some point Tesla will derate に向かって the 部門 普通の／平均（する）.
Get ready to 逆転する:?At some point Tesla will derate に向かって the 自動車 部門 普通の／平均（する）, によれば Alex Crooke
8. Is the 所有物／資産／財産 market 'as 安全な as houses' or 予定 a 衝突，墜落?
所有物／資産／財産 衝突，墜落s are very rare and usually a result of 失業 rising はっきりと.?
I don't see this happening but the cost of mortgages has risen 突然の and the price of 住宅 will need to adjust.?
I see house prices 落ちるing by 10 per cent over the next two to three years, while 給料 keep moving 上向きs making mortgages more affordable.
9. Gold: Should it be in everyone's 大臣の地位?
No. Gold 支払う／賃金s no income and therefore the value essentially is driven by 供給（する） and 需要・要求する and can be much more volatile than many 推定する／予想する.?
It's also hard for individuals to 蓄える／店 安全に and 交流 貿易（する）d 基金s that 跡をつける gold should always be 支援するd by physical holdings.?
I believe gold has a place in 大臣の地位s at times of extreme 強調する／ストレス in markets but should not be a long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 投資.
Pure 憶測: Bitcoin is not a sound 投資, says Crooke
10. What about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is not a sound 投資, it's pure 憶測.?
It's challenging to own 安全に and 政府s are only going to make it harder over time to 移転 国家の 通貨s into Bitcoin.?
11. What next for インフレーション and 利益／興味 率s??
インフレーション is like the genie in the 瓶／封じ込める, one it escaped it was almost impossible to get it 支援する in.?
行う rises have now followed インフレーション 上向きs and while I 推定する／予想する インフレーション to 落ちる from 現在の levels, I believe central banks will struggle to keep it below 2 per cent over the medium 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語.?
I therefore see 利益／興味 率s in the 2-4 per cent 範囲 for やめる some time.
12. Has Brexit cost the 普通の／平均（する） UK 投資家 since 2016???
It depends. Most 投資家s were smart enough to see that the value of 英貨の／純銀の would be 厳しく 衝撃d by a Brexit 投票（する）.?
Those 投資家s that moved their 焦点（を合わせる） to overseas 株式市場s, 特に the US, have done very 井戸／弁護士席 since 2016.?
The UK 株式市場 has been 意味ありげに rerated downwards in the 介入するing period, however Brexit is not the only 問題／発行する.
Bad calls: Alex Crooke says the Bank of England has raised 利益／興味 率s too high and if he was the 知事, he'd be cutting 率s already
13. What would you have done 異なって if you had been 知事 of the Bank of England???
I 堅固に believe the Bank of England made a 抱擁する mistake cutting 利益／興味 率s during the Covid 危機, which seeded the インフレーション 殺到する we have seen since.?
They are now making the opposite mistake and have raised 率s too high, mistaking インフレーション to be a 需要・要求する problem when it was almost 完全に 供給（する）-味方する driven.?
I would be cutting 率s today, as they are too 制限する and さもなければ will 原因（となる） an overshoot on the downside for 経済成長.
14. You 相続する £100k tomorrow. What would you do????
It 明確に depends on the age and 危険 appetite of the 投資家.?
However, for someone 用意が出来ている to take a long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 見解（をとる） and 用意が出来ている to own 公正，普通株主権s, then I'd 投資する 70 per cent into long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 UK gilts and 30 per cent into 公正，普通株主権s.?
Longer-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 gilt 産する／生じるs are attractively 定価つきの and 許す a decent return while better value appears in the 公正，普通株主権 market over the coming 12 months.
