Best 投資するing 戦略 of past １０年間 明らかにする／漏らすd - and why you SHOULDN'T follow it
- We pitted six 大臣の地位s against each other - each with a different 手段
- If an 投資家 put £10,000 in 10 years ago, which one would 勝利，勝つ out??
- The answer shocked AJ Bell's 長，率いる of 投資 分析 who ran the 人物／姿／数字s?
Wealth & Personal 財政／金融 decided to try an 実験. With the help of 投資 壇・綱領・公約 AJ Bell, we pitted six 大臣の地位s against each other, each with a different popular 戦略.?
For each, we asked this question: if an 投資家 had put £10,000 into this 大臣の地位 ten years ago, how much money would they have made by now?
The answer shocked Laith Khalaf 長，率いる of 投資 分析 at AJ Bell, who ran the 人物／姿／数字s, and surprised us at Wealth & Personal 財政／金融, too.
Stand out from the （人が）群がる: Herd 投資家s who blindly followed their peers 成し遂げるd worse over ten years than 業績／成果 chasers
投資家s are endlessly searching for the winning 戦略 that will give them the 辛勝する／優位. Everyone from ordinary 投資家s to 専門家 基金 経営者／支配人s 捜し出す out that 宗教上の grail ? the 決まり文句／製法 that will grow their wealth by a bit more than everyone else each year.
Many believe they have 設立する it. Some buy a 大臣の地位 and 持つ／拘留する it for years, come what may. Others 選ぶ for いわゆる contrarian 投資するing ? buying whatever is unloved at the time. Another bunch hoover up whatever's looking cheap.
We 手配中の，お尋ね者 to find out who is 権利.?
Our 大臣の地位s are not 構成するd of individual 在庫／株s or 基金s.?Instead, to be more 代表者／国会議員, they are made up of 投資 部門s, such as UK all-company 基金s, North American 基金s, 全世界の 基金s and 科学（工学）技術 基金s.
These are all 部門s defined by the 投資 協会 ? an 産業 団体／死体. The six 大臣の地位s were:
1) 業績／成果 chasers
In this 大臣の地位, w e imagined that, at the start of the ten-year period in 2014, the 投資家 put their £10,000 into healthcare, the 部門 that enjoyed the best 業績／成果 the previous year.?
Then, on January 1 of every その後の year, the 投資家 moved their 十分な 大臣の地位 into the best-成し遂げるing 部門 of the year just gone. In other words, they were always 投資するing in last year's 勝利者s.
2) Buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の
This 投資家 put their £10,000 into a 全世界の 基金, which moves up and 負かす／撃墜する with the 全世界の 株式市場. They left it untouched for a １０年間.
3) Egg spreaders
Here, we imagined that at the beginning of the ten-year period, the 投資家 分裂（する） their £10,000 平等に between UK 基金s, US 基金s, European 基金s, Japanese 基金s and 全世界の 現れるing market 基金s.?
In other words, rather than putting their eggs into one basket, they bought a bit of everything, and rebalanced them each year.
Are you an egg spreader? These 投資家s buy a bit of everything and rebalance 正規の／正選手 ly
4) Herd 投資家s
This 投資家 started with their £10,000 in the 投資 部門 that was most popular in 2013. Then every year, they 転換d their money into the 部門s that most people bought in the previous year, 関わりなく 業績／成果.
5) Contrarians
For this 大臣の地位, the 投資家 did the exact opposite of herd 投資家s. They put their £10,000 into the least popular 部門 from the previous year, and did the same on January 1 for the 十分な ten-year period.
6) 取引 hunters
Here the 投資家 put their £10,000 into the worst 成し遂げるing 部門 from the year before in each year.
And the 勝利者 is…
業績／成果 chasers ? and by a long way. After ten years, their £10,000 投資 would be 価値（がある） an impressive £27,360. The next best was the buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の 投資家, with £24,184.
The biggest loser was the 取引 hunter, turning the 投資 into £14,203. But even this 大臣の地位 managed to （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域 インフレーション ? £10,000 in 2014 is 価値（がある） £13,150 today.
Laith Khalaf says: 'Everyone knows that chasing 基金 業績／成果 is a fool's errand. Except for the fact that in the last ten years, it's 産する／生じるd terrific results.?
'投資家s who each January had put their money into the best perfo rming 基金 部門 of the previous year would be rolling in it, 登録（する）ing a 173.6 per cent return over the １０年間.'
But was it a fluke?
You could argue that the last １０年間 has not been typical for 投資家s. It was a period in which US 科学（工学）技術 companies ? the likes of Facebook's owner, Meta, and Google's owner, Alphabet ? drove a good chunk of the growth in 全世界の 株式市場s.?
Their 星／主役にする kept rising. As these were 運動ing growth year after year, it is perhaps no surprise that the 業績／成果 chaser 大臣の地位 did 井戸／弁護士席 over that period.
So, we asked AJ Bell to try the same 実験, using the same 大臣の地位 styles, over other ten-year periods.?
And it couldn't f ind a 選び出す／独身 ten-year period in the past 30 years when the 業績／成果 chaser did not （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域 a buy and 持つ／拘留する 戦略 ? which is what is usually recommended to ordinary 投資家s by the 投資 産業.
Moreover, look その上の and you see that the 科学（工学）技術 部門 was the 最高の，を越す performer in only two of the ten years ? and India, healthcare and 商品／必需品s were all also two-time 最高の，を越す performers.
So, should you become a 業績／成果 chaser?
Not やむを得ず ? and for several 推論する／理由s. First, past 業績／成果 is no 保証（人） of 未来 returns ? even if a 戦略 has 成し遂げるd 井戸／弁護士席 for a number of years.
Jason Hollands, at 投資 壇・綱領・公約 Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, says: 'Chasing returns can work for a while, then suddenly the best performers change. Unless you have a 水晶 ball, you cannot know when it will happen. It may catch you out.
'If you chase 業績／成果, you are also far more likely to be exposed when 泡s 現れる. In the 1990s, when the dotcom 泡 burst, 投資家s who had been piling into these most-popular 在庫／株s would have 苦しむd 不正に.'
Second, 業績／成果 chasers have 耐えるd a stomach-lurching ride. In the past ten years, the biggest 年次の 減少（する） for 業績／成果 chasers was 14.2 per cent.?
But if you go 支援する to 2000, 業績／成果 chasers would have 苦しむd an 31 per cent 落ちる ? compared with a 5 per cent 落ちる experienced by buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の 投資家s.
Khalaf 追加するs: 'In 2008, a pe rformance chaser 大臣の地位 would have dropped by 45 per cent, against a 24 per cent 落ちる for a buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の 大臣の地位. In 2009, it would have dropped again ? this time by 11 per cent ? while the buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の 大臣の地位 would have 回復するd by 23 per cent.' Ouch.?
Third, it is all 井戸／弁護士席 and good comparing the 業績／成果 of hypothetical 大臣の地位s. But it is a bit more 複雑にするd if you're managing one of them.?
Ups... and 負かす／撃墜するs: While it 成し遂げるd 井戸／弁護士席 this year, in 2008 a 業績／成果 chaser 大臣の地位 would have dropped in value by 45%
In the 事例／患者 of a buy and 持つ／拘留する 大臣の地位, you literally have to do just that.?
簡単に buy a 井戸／弁護士席-diversified 大臣の地位 of 部門s, and 地理学s and then sit tight ? tweaking occasionally to rebalance or if your 投資 goals or time horizon changes.
But were you to manage a 業績／成果 chaser 大臣の地位 ? or one of the others, such as contrarian, herd or 取引 hunter ? you would have to work out which 基金s to buy and sell each year to stic k to your chosen 戦略, 精密検査する your 大臣の地位 every year, and probably 背負い込む 料金s every time you bought and sold.
Is there a 妥協?
A buy and 持つ／拘留する 全世界の 大臣の地位 作品 on the 前提 that 全世界の 株式市場s tend to rise over the long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, but that few of us 効果的に 予報する which 部門s will 成し遂げる best so may 同様に 持つ／拘留する a bit of each and hope for the best.
For many 投資家s ? 特に those who want いっそう少なく 演劇 ? this is probably a good starting point.
However, if you have 確かな 有罪の判決s ? about a particular 投資するing style or 傾向, or a 部門, 地理学 or company you think will do better than the 普通の／平均（する） ? you could always tweak a balanced 大臣の地位 to 表明する it.?
Buy a bit more of these 投資s ? but don't plough all your cash into them in 事例／患者 you're wrong.
- What's your 投資するing style? Email rachel.rickard@mailonsunday.co.uk
