New build house prices ¤Ë¤ï¤«·Êµ¤d 17% last year while older homes dipped: Our ÃÏ¿Þ¡¿·×²è¤¹¤ë shows price gap in YOUR area

  • New builds now ²ÁÃ͡ʤ¬¤¢¤ë¡Ë ¡ò413,032 compared to ¡ò282,440 for ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes?
  • The typical Èó¡¤ÉÔ¡¤Ìµ-new build ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º fell by 2.4% last year
  • New home developers ¡Ê·º»ö¡ËÈï¹ð of ±¿Æ°ing up prices by cutting ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë??

A »¦Åþ¤¹¤ë in the price of new build homes over the past 12 months may be masking what is really happening in the ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º market, new data has ÌÀ¤é¤«¤Ë¤¹¤ë¡¿Ï³¤é¤¹d.?

The cost of the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë new build in the UK rose by a staggering 17.2 per cent in the 12 months to November 2023, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð the ºÇ¿·¤Î À¯ÉÜ data.

And while new build prices have ¤Ë¤ï¤«·Êµ¤d, the price of ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes appears to have dipped ¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¤ÀÃæ¤Ë higher mortgage Ψs.?

This is hidden in house price º÷°ús, which don't tend to ʬÎö¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë their ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ús by ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º type and have therefore Êó¹ð¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë¡¿²±Â¬d for several months that ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë house prices have been rising.?

Gap opening up: The typical new home as of November 2023 was selling for ¡ò413,032 compared to the average existing home, selling for ¡ò282,440

Gap ³«»Ï up: The typical new home as of November 2023 was selling for ¡ò413,032 compared to the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing home, selling for ¡ò282,440

But the typical Èó¡¤ÉÔ¡¤Ìµ-new build ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º, which makes up the ¹­Âç¤Ê Âç¿¿ô of ½èÍý¡¿¼è°ús, ¸½¼Â¤Ë went É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë in value by 2.4 per cent in the 12 months to November ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð the Office for ¹ñ²È¤Î Åý·×¡Ê³Ø¡Ë ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ús.?

The typical new home was selling for ¡ò413,032 as of November 2023, compared to the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing home at ¡ò282,440.

Îò»ËŪ¤Ë, both new-build and ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes have gone up and É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë in price at about the same pace. So why are new homes suddenly ¥¹¥Ô¡¼¥É°ãÈ¿ ahead??

> Are new build homes more expensive? We crunch the numbers?

Thanks to ¸¦µæ by the ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º ³«È¯ ɾ²Á ¥½¥Õ¥È¥¦¥§¥¢ ²ñ¼Ò¡¿·ø¤¤, Aprao, we were able to Àפò¤Ä¤±¤ë the price of the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë new build home compared to ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes over time.?

In the 10 years ¼çÍ×¤Ê up to 2023, new-build house prices Áý²Ã¤¹¤ëd by 60 per cent while ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes rose 63.5 per cent.

On an annualised basis, that meant new builds were rising by 5.4 per cent on ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë per year compared to ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes, which rose 5.6 per cent.

But in 2023, it's ¡Êµ¿¤¤¤ò¡ËÀ²¤é¤¹ that new-build homes have been the ±¿Æ°ing ·³Ââ »ý¤Ä¡¿¹´Î±¤¹¤ëing up Á´ÂΤˤ錄¤ë ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º prices - and in many ÃÏ°ès, the strong new-build ÉôÌç growth has even helped to »Ù¤¨¡Ê¤ë¡Ë up what would have ¤µ¤â¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð been Íî¤Á¤ëing house prices.

New builds more expensive in all UK ÃÏ°ès?

New-build values have outperformed the ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes sold across every ÃÏ°è of Britain, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð the ʬÀÏ by Aprao.

For example, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë new build in the North East rose in price by 20.9 per cent last year. However, ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing ºß¸Ë¡¿³ô on the market fell by 0.8 per cent.

In London, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë new-build ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º rose by 11 per cent in value in 12 months to November. °ìÊý¡¿¹ç´Ö, ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing London ºß¸Ë¡¿³ô fell by 4.4 per cent on ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë.

In Scotland, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë new build price was up 18.7 per cent in the 12 months to November compared to a 1 per cent Íî¤Á¤ë in value across ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing ºß¸Ë¡¿³ô.

Why are new build prices ¤Ë¤ï¤«·Êµ¤ing?

Some ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º ÀìÌç²Ès believe that developers have ¸ú²ÌŪ¤Ë Áý²Ã¤¹¤ëd new build prices by cutting »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë on ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë.

Last year, ¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¤ÀÃæ¤Ë higher mortgage Ψs, sales ÍÆÀÑ¡¿ÍÆÎÌs took a ¹¶·â¤¹¤ë¡¤¾×Æͤ¹¤ë. ½»Âð ½èÍý¡¿¼è°ús fell by 19 per cent during 2023 to just over 1.02 million, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð HMRC ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ús.

In the ľÌ̤¹¤ë of this Íî¤Á¤ëing ¼ûÍס¦Í׵᤹¤ë from Ç㤤¼ês, many house ·úÀ߶ȼÔs and developers appear to have ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë on building, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ús from the ¹ñ²È¤Î House Building ²ñµÄ.

The NHBC's ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ús ÌÀ¤é¤«¤Ë¤¹¤ë¡¿Ï³¤é¤¹d 87,564 new homes were ´°Á´¤Ë¤¹¤ëd in the »äŪ¤Ê ÉôÌç in 2023, É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë 20 per cent on 2022 when 109,829 were ´°Á´¤Ë¤¹¤ëd. ´°À®s ¸ÀµÚ¤¹¤ë to when a ±¢Ëšʤò´ë¤Æ¤ë¡Ë is ³Îǧ¤¹¤ëd as ready to be ÀêÎΤ¹¤ëd.

Less building: New homes completed in 2023 were down 20% when compared with 2022

¤¤¤Ã¤½¤¦¾¯¤Ê¤¯ building: New homes ´°Á´¤Ë¤¹¤ëd in 2023 were É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë 20% when compared with 2022

Are housebuilders Ω¤Á±ýÀ¸¤µ¤»¤ëing to ²¡¤·¿Ê¤á¤ë up prices??

Housebuilders are ¤¤¤Ä¤«s ¡Ê·º»ö¡ËÈï¹ð of sitting on building »ö¶È¡¿·×²è¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ës when times are ·ø¤¤, slowing the Ψ at which they ´°Á´¤Ë¤¹¤ë homes so they can sell them for higher prices after the market ²óÉü¤¹¤ës.?

This ¸º¤º¤ës the ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë of homes and can Áý²Ã¤¹¤ë prices ͽÄê to more ¶¥Áè. Is that what is happening here???

Peter Ë¡°Æ, the ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º author and commentator, says: 'The disproportionate rise in the price of brand new homes is ľÀÜ¡¿¤Þ¤Ã¤¹¤°¤Ë ´Ø·¸¤Î¤¢¤ë to the 15 per cent to 20 per cent ¿³µÄ¤¹¤ë¡¿½Ï¹Í¤¹¤ë ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë in ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë by ÍÆÀÑ¡¿ÍÆÎÌ house ·úÀ߶ȼÔs. They have ¼óÈø¤è¤¯ »ý³¤¹¤ëd prices by cutting ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë.'

House ·úÀ߶ȼÔs will have also seen their Íø¤¶¤äs squeezed by the rising cost of construction and ºâÀ¯¡¿¶âÍ».

Since 2019, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë cost of construction ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs has climbed by 33.2 per cent, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð separate ʬÀÏ by Aprao.

Some things have risen more than others. For example, Àä±ï¤¹¤ëing ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs have risen 61.4 per cent, pre-cast ¸Ç¤á¤ë¡¿¥³¥ó¥¯¥ê¡¼¥È À½ÉÊs are up 55.8 per cent and plastic doors and windows are up 49.6 per cent.

> True Cost Mortgage Calculator: Check what a new ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd Ψ would cost?

Shovels in the ground and cranes in the sky:?Since 2019, the average cost of construction materials has climbed by 33.2% according to analysis by Aprao

Shovels in the ground and cranes in the sky:?Since 2019, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë cost of construction ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs has climbed by 33.2% ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð ʬÀÏ by Aprao

Daniel Norman, Ĺ¡¤»ØƳ¼Ô (n)Ìò°÷¡¿(a)¼¹¹ÔÎϤΤ¢¤ë of Aprao says: 'The pandemic ¸½ºß¤Îd a myriad of challenges for the nation's housebuilders, with À©¸Âs around producing and Í¢Æþ¤¹¤ëing building ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs ¼çÍ×¤Ê to a spike in costs.

'But while the pandemic itself may be °æ¸Í¡¿ÊÛ¸î»ÎÀÊ and truly behind us, it's fair to say that the same challenges remain today , with the cost of many ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs remaining higher than they were even a year ago.

'At the same time, developers are ¸ºß ¹¶·â¤¹¤ë¡¤¾×Æͤ¹¤ë with higher costs on other Á°Àþs, with higher Íø±×¡¿¶½Ì£ Ψs playing their part, while their ¹Ô¤¦ Ë¡°Æ will have also Áý²Ã¤¹¤ëd.'

Peter Ë¡°Æ feels the combination of lower Ç㤤¼ê ¼ûÍס¦Í׵᤹¤ë, ¤È°ì½ï¤Ë extra construction and ºâÀ¯¡¿¶âÍ» costs will have ¸¶°ø¡Ê¤È¤Ê¤ë¡Ëd many housebuilders to ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë on the ºß¸Ë¡¿³ô they are making ÍøÍѤǤ­¤ë.

Peter Bill is the author of Property Planet and co-author of Broken Homes: Britain's Housing Crisis: Faults, Factoids and Fixes

Peter Ë¡°Æ is the author of ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º ÏÇÀ± and co-author of Broken Homes: Britain's ½»Âð ´íµ¡: Faults, Factoids and ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ës

He says: 'A house ·úÀß¶È¼Ô or developer needs to be ³Î¿®¤·¤Æ about how much a ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º will sell for before buying a ¾ì½ê¡¿°ÌÃÖ. A developer will nearly always Ū a ºÇ¾®¸Â 20 per cent Íø±×¡Ê¤ò¤¢¤²¤ë¡Ë.

'For example, say a developer ºÇ½é »ö¶È¡¿·×²è¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ëd that its income from sales will be ¡ò1,000,000, they will build in ¡ò200,00 0 Íø±×¡Ê¤ò¤¢¤²¤ë¡Ë into their sums. Say they have ³µ»»¤Î the construction costs to be ¡ò600,000. That leaves them a ¡ò200,000 ͽ»» to buy the land or old building.

'They acquire the land and make ·×²è¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ës to begin building work. However, ͽÄê to higher mortgage Ψs, it now ¿´ÇÛ¤¹¤ës that the ³«È¯ will sell for ¡ò900,000, rather than ¡ò1,000,000. That will ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë their ¡ò200,000 Íø±×¡Ê¤ò¤¢¤²¤ë¡Ë in half.

'°ìÊý¡¿¹ç´Ö, higher than ¿´ÇÛ¤¹¤ëd costs of construction may also be eating into their Íø±×¡Ê¤ò¤¢¤²¤ë¡Ë Íø¤¶¤äs.

'Big housebuilders are more fortunate than smaller developers. They can afford to wait for prices to ²óÉü¤¹¤ë, rather than sell at lower Íø¤¶¤äs - or at a loss.

'Instead, they ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë costs and slow the Ψ of construction, rather than ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë prices.'?

However, Anthony Codling, Ĺ¡¤Î¨¤¤¤ë of European ½»Âð and building ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs for Åê»ñ bank, RBC »ñËÜ¡¿¼óÅÔ Markets, believes that the »¦Åþ¤¹¤ë in prices is ºÇ½ªÅª¤Ë ¸ºß driven by ¼ûÍס¦Í׵᤹¤ë from Ç㤤¼ês.

'New build prices only rise if ¼ûÍס¦Í׵᤹¤ë is greater than ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë. If the homes aren't selling, the prices will come É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë.

Anthony Codling, head of European housing and building materials for investment bank RBC Capital Markets

Anthony Codling, Ĺ¡¤Î¨¤¤¤ë of European ½»Âð and building ¹½À®Í×ÁÇs for Åê»ñ bank RBC »ñËÜ¡¿¼óÅÔ Markets

'If we look at the market, mortgage Ψs are lower than they were a few months ago and µëÎÁ are rising, therefore homebuyers can afford to spend more now than they could a few months ago.'

Rather than housebuilders?purposely cutting »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë on ¶¡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë, Codling argues that an?ÉÔ½½Ê¬¤Ê planning system is slowing them É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë.

'Housebuilders would like to sell more homes,' says Codling. 'There are very few, if any, ¾¦Çä¡¿»Å»ös that Áܤ·½Ð¤¹ to sell ¤è¤ê¾®¿ô¤Î À½ÉÊs than they could.?

'The ÌäÂ꡿ȯ¹Ô¤¹¤ë ľÌ̤¹¤ëing housebuilders is a planning system moving at a glacial pace, ½»Âð Ūs have been scrapped, planning departments ´ð¶âing has been ºï¸º¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë and therefore ¤è¤ê¾®¿ô¤Î planning µö²Äs are ¸ºß ǧ¤á¤ëd.?

'It is the planning system that is »ý¤Ä¡¿¹´Î±¤¹¤ëing »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë ½»Â𠶡µë¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë, not housebuilders, they are in the ¾¦Çä¡¿»Å»ö of building houses.

Codling Äɲ乤ës: 'Build costs continue to rise, but housebuilders cannot automatically pass these costs on to the homebuyer, because don't forget for every one new build there are seven or eight second ¼êÅϤ¹ Âå°Æ¡¿ÁªÂò»ès where build costs have long been forgotten and therefore do not ¾×·â the price.'

If new builds were to begin cutting prices and sell at lower prices than the market value, it would Âåɽ¤¹¤ë '¾¦¶È¤Î ¼«»¦', ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Codling,?ÆÃ¤Ë if they then run out of homes to sell.

He Äɲ乤ës: 'Housebuilder Íø±×¡Ê¤ò¤¢¤²¤ë¡Ës have already fallen °ÕÌ£¤¢¤ê¤²¤Ë, Íø¤¶¤äs have fallen by about 50 per cent across the ÉôÌç, and if housebuilders run out of money and go ÇË»º¤·¤¿¡¿¡Ê·Ù»¡¤¬¡Ë¼êÆþ¤ì¤¹¤ë, we will get even ¤è¤ê¾®¿ô¤Î new homes, so we need to be careful what we wish for.'

*Please ¸ø¼°Ê¸½ñ¡¤Ç§¤á¤ë that the data on new build and ¸ºß¤¹¤ëing homes prices is based on ONS data taken from the Land Registry. It ½ü³°¤¹¤ës Northern Ireland's house price data.?Northern Ireland prices are based on a ǯ£´²ó¤Î ¿Íʪ¡¿»Ñ¡¿¿ô»ú only.