Could my mortgage cost me more than I make from house price rises?

  • A 30-year mortgage could see a ¡ò282,000 house cost a total of ¡ò445,000
  • But are house prices likely to rise enough to ¡ÊÉÔ­¤Ê¤É¤ò¡ËÊ䤦 the difference??
  • We crunch the numbers on mortgage costs and house prices in coming £±£°Ç¯´Ös?

When people buy a home they tend to think they are making a sound Åê»ñ, as prices tend to rise in the long run.

But unless they are a cash Ç㤤¼ê, they Í׵᤹¤ë a mortgage from a Âߤ¹¿Í ¡¼¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë ¹ØÆþ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë a ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º.

They will then spend £±£°Ç¯´Ös ÊÖ¤¹ing that mortgage, with a large Éôʬ of their ·îËè¤Î »Ùʧ¤¤¡Ê³Û¡Ës going on Íø±×¡¿¶½Ì£.

While it's Ê¿°×¤Ê to know how much they've made from house price growth when they come to sell, homeowners usually »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶⠤¤¤Ã¤½¤¦¾¯¤Ê¤¯ attention to how much the mortgage has cost them in the ¹ç´Ö.

With mortgage Ψs having risen over the past two years, it means the total ÎÌ paid »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë is more likely to have superseded any ¿­¤Ó¡Ê¤ë¡Ës made by house price growth during that time.??

New research from the comparison site, Finder, has revealed how much someone currently buying the average UK home would need it to rise in value in order to offset mortgage costs

New ¸¦µæ from the comparison ¾ì½ê¡¿°ÌÃÖ, Finder, has ÌÀ¤é¤«¤Ë¤¹¤ë¡¿Ï³¤é¤¹d how much someone ¸½ºß¡¿°ìÈÌ¤Ë buying the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë UK home would need it to rise in value ¡¼¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë Á껦¤¹¤ë mortgage costs

That doesn't mean buying a home is ¤ä¤à¤òÆÀ¤º a bad idea, ÆÃ¤Ë if the Âå°Æ¡¿ÁªÂò»è is »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶âing ever-higher rents - but owners may be Íø±×¡¿¶½Ì£d to know how much they would need their ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º to rise by to fully Á껦¤¹¤ë their mortgage costs.

Thanks to some new ¸¦µæ ³ôd ÇÓ¾Ū¤Ë with This is Money by the personal ºâÀ¯¡¿¶âÍ» comparison ¾ì½ê¡¿°ÌÃÖ Finder, we are able to ÌÀ¤é¤«¤Ë¤¹¤ë¡¿Ï³¤é¤¹ just that.?

The ʬÀÏ is based on someone buying the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë UK home with a 25 per cent deposit on a 30-year mortgage ¾Î¤¹¤ë¡¤¸Æ¤Ö¡¿´ü´Ö¡¿ÍѸì, whilst?»Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶âing the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë mortgage Ψ over the last 30 years, which is 4.25 per cent when also factoring in typical ÎÁ¶âs associated with remortgaging.

The ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë UK home ¸½ºß¡¿°ìÈÌ¤Ë costs ¡ò281,913, and someone buying this with a 30-year mortgage would ·ë¶ÉºÇ¸å¤Ë¤Ï¡¼¤Ê¤ë spending ¡ò445,000 on the house and mortgage, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Finder.

For the ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º to reach this valuation, the asking price would therefore need to rise by 58 per cent, equating to over ¡ò163,000 in Ä̲ߤΠ¾ò·ï over 30 years.

The good news for ²ÄǽÀ­¤Î¤¢¤ë homebuyers, though, is that over the last 30 years, the UK's ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë house price has risen by a ÊúÍʤ¹¤ë 416 per cent.

Were this to happen again, a house ²ÁÃ͡ʤ¬¤¢¤ë¡Ë ¡ò281,913 today would be ²ÁÃ͡ʤ¬¤¢¤ë¡Ë ¡ò1,454,981 in 2054, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Finder.

What if mortgage Ψs remain where they are?

Mortgage Ψs are ¸½ºß¡¿°ìÈÌ¤Ë ¤ï¤º¤«¤Ë above the 30-year ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë.

At ¸½ºß¤Î, the most popular mortgage À½ÉÊ ¤ÎÃæ¤Ç borrowers are two-year ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd Ψs, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð ÃçÇã¿Í L&C Mortgages.?

The ¸½ºß¤Î ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë two-year ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd mortgage Ψ for someone buying with a 25 per cent deposit is 4.97 per cent, ¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Finder.

If this Ψ were to stay the same for the next 30 years, the total ÎÌ someone would need to »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶â would rise to ¡ò477,900. This ºîÉÊ out as an extra ¡ò90.65 per month, and over ¡ò32,600 Á´ÂΤˤ錄¤ë.

> What next for mortgage Ψs and how long should you ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ë for??

According to Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed rate mortgage is 5.81%

¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Moneyfacts, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë two-year ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd Ψ mortgage is 5.81%

¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð Moneyfacts, the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë two-year ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd Ψ mortgage across all deposit sizes is ¸½ºß¡¿°ìÈÌ¤Ë higher at 5.81 per cent.

If this were the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë Ψ over the next 30 years, the total ÎÌ someone would need to »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶â, when buying the ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë home, would rise to ¡ò517,705, which equates to an extra ¡ò72,705 over the mortgage ¾Î¤¹¤ë¡¤¸Æ¤Ö¡¿´ü´Ö¡¿ÍѸì, albeit not taking into account Éղà ÎÁ¶âs.

For house prices to match the cost of the mortgage, they would need to rise by ³µÎ¬¤Ç 84 per cent over the next 30 years.?

How much will your mortgage cost over its lifetime?

The difficulty with working out the cost of a mortgage over its 25, 30, 35-year or even longer lifetime is that Ψs will almost certainly change.

Britain's system of shorter ¾Î¤¹¤ë¡¤¸Æ¤Ö¡¿´ü´Ö¡¿ÍѸì ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëd Ψ ¼è°ú¡¤¶¨Äês - rather than ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ëing a Ψ for a mortgage's life - means that a borrower could have started off »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶âing 5 per cent in the Ãæ±û¤Î-2000s, ž´¹d to Ψs of around 2 to 3 per cent after that, gone É餫¤¹¡¿·âÄƤ¹¤ë to a ľ¤¹¡¿Çã¼ý¤¹¤ë¡¤È¬É´Ä¹¤ò¤¹¤ë in the 1 per cent bracket, and now be »Ù±ç¤¹¤ë at 5 per cent.

To get an idea of how much a mortgage would cost over a lifetime, you can use True Cost Mortgage Calculator, and put in different Ψs for different time periods - or you could choose an ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë Ψ that you ¸«Àѡʤë¡Ë for the ½½Ê¬¤Ê ¾Î¤¹¤ë¡¤¸Æ¤Ö¡¿´ü´Ö¡¿ÍѸì.??

Compare true mortgage costs

Work out mortgage costs and check what the real best ¼è°ú¡¤¶¨Äê taking into account Ψs and ÎÁ¶âs. You can either use one part to work out a Áª¤Ó½Ð¤¹¡¿ÆÈ¿È mortgage costs, or both to compare ÂßÉÕ¶âs

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Will house prices continue to rise like in the past?

For house prices to rise over the next 30 years as µÞ®¤Ê¡¿ÊüÆ¢¤Ê as they have over the past 30 years, they would on ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë need to rise around 5.63 per cent every year, taking into account the ±Æ¶Á of ǯ¼¡¤Î ¹½Æâ¡¿²½¹çʪing.

This might seem ´°Á´¤Ë possible. However, many of the major house price ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ës paint a more downbeat picture, over the next five years at least.

For example, the ¹­¤¤ÃÏ½ê ¥¹¥Ñ¥¤¡¿¼¹¹Ô´±, Savills, is ͽÊ󤹤ëing that ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë UK house prices will rise by 17.9 per cent in the five years to 2028.

Savills is forecasting that UK house prices will rise by less than 18% over the next five years

Savills is ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ëing that UK house prices will rise by ¤¤¤Ã¤½¤¦¾¯¤Ê¤¯ than 18% over the next five years

°ìÊý¡¿¹ç´Ö, Knight Frank is ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ëing ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë UK house prices to rise by 20.5 per cent over the same period.

The ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º ²ñ¼Ò¡¿·ø¤¤, JLL, is ͽÊ󤹤ëing an even flatter picture with ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë house prices rising 14 per cent by 2028, Âåɽ¤¹¤ëing an ÉáÄ̤Ρ¿Ê¿¶Ñ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë rise of 2.7 per cent each year.

ºÇ½ªÅª¤Ë, house price ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ës are to be taken with a pinch of salt. ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ëing the next five years is hard enough, but ͽ¬¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ëing the next 30 years Àµ³Î¤Ë is almost impossible.?

Is buying a home a sound Åê»ñ?

Owning one's own home is often ¸«²ò¡Ê¤ò¤È¤ë¡Ëd as more than just an Åê»ñ, it's a British obsession, and many ¸«²ò¡Ê¤ò¤È¤ë¡Ë 'getting on the ladder' as one of life's ¹­Âç¤Ê¡¿Â¿¿ô¤Î¡¿½ÅÍ×¤Ê milestones.

Buying a ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º is often considered to be a ¼¨¤¹ of independence, °ÂÁ´ and success.

Owning is often also ¤ß¤Ê¤¹d as a preferred Âå°Æ¡¿ÁªÂò»è to renting, which often means »Ùʧ¤¦¡¿Ä¶âing ever-Áý²Ã¤¹¤ëing rents to a landlord who could ask tenants to leave at any time, with just two months' notice.?

What next? While house prices have tended to rise in the long run, they have been drifting sideways and even dipping over the past two years thanks to higher mortgage rates

What next? While house prices have tended to rise in the long run, they have been drifting sideways and even dipping over the past two years thanks to higher mortgage Ψs

But in ½ã¿è¤Ë ºâÀ¯¾å¤Î ¾ò·ï, buying and owning a home carries more than just the cost of a mortgage.

Buying also comes with some Éղà costs such as ¹çˡŪ¤Ê and surveyor ÎÁ¶âs and for those that move it will also ȼ¤¦¡¿´Ø¤ï¤ë ¹­¤¤ÃÏ½ê ¥¹¥Ñ¥¤¡¿¼¹¹Ô´± ÎÁ¶âs and in most »öÎã¡¿´µ¼Ôs stamp µÁ̳ costs on ̤Íè ¹ØÆþ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ës.

Then there is the cost of ½êÍ­¸¢, which ´Þ¤às ½¤Íýs and °Ý»ý¡¿À°È÷ or more often service ¹ðȯ¡Ê¤¹¤ë¡Ë¡¤¹ðÁʡʤ¹¤ë¡Ë¡¿ÎÁ¶âs and ground rents if a leasehold ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º.

ºÇ½ªÅª¤Ë, while buying a ½êͭʪ¡¿»ñ»º¡¿ºâ»º can be seen as an Åê»ñ, it should not be done for that ¿äÏÀ¤¹¤ë¡¿Íýͳ alone.

Liz Edwards, personal ºâÀ¯¡¿¶âÍ» ÀìÌç²È at Finder said: 'Getting on the ½»Âð ladder has typically been a sound Åê»ñ for Britons but there are some ½ÅÍ×¤Ê things to ÂѤ¨¤ë in mind before you buy.

'Firstly, don't assume that previous house price rises will continue.?

'It's even possible that prices could go through a Ĺ°ú¤«¤»¤ëd ²¼Í¤ë - for example, prices ÄãÌÂd and didn't ²óÉü¤¹¤ë for almost eight years between July 1989 and April 1997.

'Secondly, it's ²ÁÃ͡ʤ¬¤¢¤ë¡Ë remembering that the price of a house isn't the only cost ȼ¤¦¡¿´Ø¤ï¤ëd. There are Éղà ÎÁ¶âs like stamp µÁ̳, solicitors' ÎÁ¶âs and a mortgage ÎÁ¶â.

'And as this r esearch has shown, mortgage costs Äɲ乤ë a ½ÅÍ×¤Ê ÎÌ to the Á´ÂΤˤ錄¤ë cost of a house - ÆÃ¤Ë if Íø±×¡¿¶½Ì£ Ψs rise in the ̤Íè.'