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Angry Bear - Financial and Economic Commentary
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Financial Markets Are the Real Barter Economy

Posted by Steve Roth | 1/24/2012 10:28:00 AM

As (mis)conceived by most economists, money (which they confute here with currency) emerged as a solution to the time problem of barter economies: my spinach is ready now, but your apples won’t be ripe for months. How can we trade? Answer: you give me money for my spinach, and I give it back to you later for your apples.

That armchair-sourced fairy tale has been resoundingly debunked — that’s not how money (or even currency) emerged, and the Adam Smithian butcher/baker barter-exchange economy has never existed. Credit money — first embodied in tally marks on clay tablets — emerged and was in widespread use a couple of thousand years before coinage was invented (the latter largely to pay soldiers, whose itinerancy makes other methods problematic).

But the notion of barter economies lives on.

The whole system of national accounts (the NIPAs), in fact, was constructed by Simon Kuznets and company in the 30s as if we lived in a barter economy — with money being merely a time-shifting convenience, and with no accounting for financial assets at all. That accounting was only added a decade or so later, with publication of the Fed Flow of Funds accounts.

I’d like to suggest that this barter model for the real economy results in a great deal of confusion — including (especially?) among economists — largely because the NIPAs don’t usefully model the distinction between saving wheat (which can be consumed) and “saving” money (which can’t). By “useful” I mean “conceptually tractable, subject to consideration without logical error.”

I’m asserting that the barter model of the real economy results in lots of confusion and logical error. Viz: careful economic thinkers like Nick Rowe, Scott Sumner, and Andy Harless feeling the need/inclination to write lengthy think-pieces on that nature of “S.” Or the widespread misconception that “saving” (by whatever definition) “creates” “loanable funds.”

I’d even go so far as to say that those barter-model-induced logical errors pervade most thinking about economies and economics, both among economists and among the laity.

However: If you want to see a market that does operate as a barter economy, look no further than the market for financial assets. In this market, you trade your checking-account or money-market deposits for shares of Apple stock. Somebody else makes the opposite trade. The transaction is mutual and (effectively) instantaneous and simultaneous. It’s a barter.

In a very real and very counterintuitive sense, there is no money exchange in the financial markets. There are just barter swaps of financial assets.

A proleptic response to inevitable objections, and a definition of terms:

1. By “financial asset” I mean something that has exchange value — somebody will give you something in exchange for it — but that cannot be consumed (directly or through use or time/natural decay/obsolescence), providing actual human value — “utility” — in the process. (Things that can be so consumed, and do provide human utility — and derive their perceived value from that utility — are real goods/assets.)

2. “Money,” then, would be that exchange value as embodied (or metaphorically “stored”) in financial assets. Money cannot, in fact, even exist except as it is so embodied. Financial assets are money’s sines qua non – the things without which it does not exist.

Those financial assets (and the money they embody) can be tallied — represented — on clay tablets or in electronic accounting systems, in mental accounting ledgers (“You owe me”), or in physically exchangeable representations of those ledger tallies, such as dollar bills or stock certificates.

By this definition, a dollar bill or a deposit in a checking account is a financial asset, just as much as a share of stock or a government bond is. Which means that all exchanges of financial assets are swaps. Trades. Barters.

Exchanges for real goods, however, are different. When you buy or sell a real good, money (embodied in a financial asset) moves from one account to another, and — this is key — doesn’t disappear. It keeps getting passed on, exchanged. Real goods move the other way, and do disappear. You’re trading something that only has exchange value for something that can — will – be consumed. Conceptually: Financial assets travel in circles. Real goods travel in one direction only: from birth to death, production to consumption.

A physical metaphor may help: think of the financial system (including physical currency transactions) as a giant wheel, pushing along a conveyor belt of real goods.

But economists try to think about/model these very different situations as identical — as if “money” were being exchanged for bonds (and implicitly, as if those bonds will eventually be “consumed”). Since (mental) models for barter economies must be structured very differently from models for monetary economies,* modeling both of these as the same is problematic, confusing, and productive of logical errors — and perhaps even just plain wrong.

The gist of this thinking is not new — much of it reflects ideas floated long ago by circuitists, chartalists, modern monetary theorists, and other such (g)ists. But I’m hoping the formulation as presented here may be useful to others, as it is to me, in 1. forming mental/conceptual models of how economies work, and 2. evaluating the models bruited by others — notably the inherent validity of their underlying and often unstated assumptions.

I would point out in particular that as with my discussion here, the accounting-based modeling approach of Wynne Godley (and his predecessors, successors, collaborators, and parallel travelers) begins not where Kuznets did — with the interchange of real goods and services — but with the nuts and bolts of financial accounting. This approach imposes logical constraints on economists’ reasoning, constraints that seem sadly lacking in much barter-economy thinking.

As Godley says in the conclusion to his seminal paper:

In contrast to the standard textbook methodology, which starts by making very strong behavioural assumptions based on no empirical evidence at all (for example regarding the shape and role of an aggregate neo-classical production function), [this methodology suggests that] a different paradigm is indicated in which knowledge is gradually built up by empirical study, within the formidable constraints imposed by double entry accounting.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to think logically and coherently using the NIPA/Flow of Funds economic model, with the (confusing) barter and savings models embodied in the NIPAs. I’m saying it’s very difficult — especially since economists aren’t trained in financial accounting — and that as a result logical failures are widespread.

* Nick Rowe quoting Clower: “Hang on. In a Walrasian economy there is one big market where all n goods are exchanged; in a barter economy there are (n-1)n/2 markets where 2 goods are exchanged; and in a monetary economy there are (n-1) markets where 2 goods are exchanged, one of which is money.”

Cross-posted at Asymptosis.

In Part I we saw that labor's earnings have lagged far behind GDP growth.  (More on earnings stagnation here) Meanwhile, corporate profits have grown at a rate that, until recently, increased over time, and they are now at a historically high fraction of GDP.

Here is a specific look at the Finance Sector. The graph shows finance sector profits as a percentage of total corporate profits - all after tax.



 

13.9% Just Under 15% ?

Posted by Robert | 1/24/2012 01:08:00 AM

What is a small amount of money ? The extremely excellent Josh Marshall typed


We’ve got the first report about Romney’s 2010 taxes. His effective tax rate was 13.9%, just below the 15% he estimated last week. More shortly.

44 minutes ago (eek I just typed "just typed" then noticed the irony).

The tiny difference between the taxes Romney publicly guessed he roughly paid and the taxes he paid is over $450,000. One of Romney's many gaffes is saying his taxes were around 15% because, although he had earned money for speaches, he didn't earn much. Indeed he earned less than 450,000 that way. But it is a huge amount of money to earn with so little sweat.

Similarly the difference between 13.9% and 15% is more than seven times median family income.

Of course, Romney's income isn't close to a rounding error in the Federal Budget.

I think that getting the rate under 15% requires considerable effort. As a businessman consulting with his lawyers and accountants, Romney doesn't leave money on the table (it's not the money it's the principle that it's all about the money). As a candidate, I'm sure he really really wishes he had found a way to send a million more over to the IRS.

by Linda Beale

Romney to release tax returns Tuesday (finally)

Romney's bitter loss to Newt Gingrich in the Republican primary in South Carolina demonstrated that playing the patrician elite above the fray has its limits as a campaign strategy. Romney's strategists had apparently thought that they could get away with not releasing tax returns--at least not any except his 2011 ones (maybe) when filed--but they hadn't counted on vicious attacks from the GOP right that questions his vulture capital millions and his top1% effective tax rate.

That's what happens when there is a campaigner who thinks that earning $370,000 from speeches given to meaningless conventions of some trade or another is "just a little money", while admitting that the money he still earns from the vulture fund where he oversaw takeovers of companies (and layoffs of employees and offshoring of work) manages to be taxed at a preferential rate of merely 15%.

by Tom aka Rusty Rustbelt

Health Care Thoughts: Evidence Based Medicine

Evidence based medicine is one of the center pieces of PPACA (Obamacare) and is generally viewed as THE enlightened way to practice medicine and to direct dollars more effectively. Problem is, there is a "whose ox just got gored" issue.

The American Psychiatric Association is currently revising guidelines for autism spectrum diagnoses, and early research indicates some high cognition youngsters may have their diagnosis dropped or altered. This could result in an alteration or loss of services (caveat: it is very early in the process).

It has been suggested over the past couple of decades the diagnosis was expanded, perhaps past the bounds of science, as parents scrambled and pleaded for help. Parents and educators are concerned. What parent can blame them?

The Rulers Cannot Take Responsibility

Posted by Dan Crawford (Rdan) | 1/22/2012 03:02:00 PM

op-ed by Noni Mausa

   
The Rulers Cannot Take Responsibility

At least, not in the sense of crime and punishment.  Only in  immediate, short term and small decisions can political rulers be  unambiguously judged right or wrong, and adequately punished.  There is no punishment, however severe, that can adequately balance the potential harm done by one man or a small group to an entire nation.  Even in ordinary people, the threat of reprisals is unevenly effective in preventing crimes. And nobody thinks such threats can prevent  stupidity, misjudgment and decisions made on incomplete data.  The scope for such poor decisions is magnified thousandfold in the public arena.

In government the scale of possible harm is so disproportionate to what a bad ruler can suffer or repay, that for all practical purposes they wield power without responsibility.

Even the most earnest and caring leader, the cleverest, the strongest,  cannot “take responsibility.” They can do much good and much harm, but  they personally can’t be held accountable in any way that mends the broken crockery of the nation.

The whole purpose of government is to make decisions for the common  good across time.  Longer than a term of office or even a lifetime,  the work of government requires planning and caution.  It is
inherently conservative in the original sense of the word.  The only way rulers can “take responsibility” is to realize this and  to make decisions and support social structures that are cautious and  conscious.

 I sent a link to Beverly to this article which stated Citizen United was not so much about corporate personhood. Here is her response, and in addition in a later e-mail Beverly makes this key point (intro amended for readability):

...that no constitutional amendment is necessary in order to nullify Citizens United, because Citizens United actually was decided on the basis of a purported issue of fact that was unsupported by any evidence and that can be refuted by actual clear evidence--and that that's really the point that the Montana Supreme Court justices were making.

and actually much more....

by Beverly Mann

The Beginning of the End of Citizens United

The article makes the important point that Citizens United and Bellotti, the 1978 opinion that Citizens United uses as its justification, focus mainly on the listeners’ right to hear political speech rather than on the speaker’s right to speak, and so it is not corporate personhood but instead the money-is-speech Supreme Court tenet that is the operative precept in Citizens United. But then the authors claim that, because no listener was a plaintiff challenging the constitutionality of the statute, the Court had no authority to decide the issue on the basis of the supposed interests of listener members of the public. That’s ridiculous, and they themselves effectively refute it. They say:

For their traditional First Amendment balancing, on one side of the scale, courts have categorized the speech as either a kind that communicates an idea, opinion, demand, information relevant to democratic debate, etcetera, or a kind that better fits the category of being merely an instrumentality of transactional conduct. (The speech can also fall in the middle between these two categories). The more communicative and the less transactional, the more weight the courts have recognized on this side of the scale. On the other side of the scale is weighed the amount of harm done by allowing the speech. Speech that merely facilitates the conduct of transactions, such as fraud, conspiracy, insider trading tips, pimping and so forth may properly be criminalized and regulated without much regard for the fact that the means for carrying out the transactions may be entirely speech. Money in politics falls within the category of transactional speech, and it also causes severe harm to the democratic form of government. It may, therefore, be regulated and criminalized.

One reason why speech that communicates political argument, ideas, opinions, information relevant to democratic debate, is more protected under the First Amendment than commercial or transactional speech is that the public has a stronger interest in hearing, and therefore a stronger right to hear, political argument, ideas, information, etc., than it does transactional speech. A big part of the balancing in First Amendment speech cases concerns the interest of the listener.

Educating Dean Baker

Posted by Robert | 1/22/2012 10:44:00 AM

I never expected to type that. I have great respect for Dean Baker who, among other things, convinced Paul Krugman we were in a housing bubble. He is very smart and writes about important issues. But he has recently written two posts which contain the same elementary error.

I don't want to be rude, but the posts make me think of Robert Lucas's tirade against Christy Romer.
Baker wrote

Steven Rattner remains convinced that handing future generations trillions of dollars of government bonds imposes a burden on them and is very unhappy that I don't see things that way. Let's try this one more time.

[skip]

At some future point, everyone who owns this debt today will be dead. They will have no choice but to hand this debt on to members of the next generation, either their own heirs or someone else's.
Baker asserts that if someone owns something, he must keep it till he dies then leave it to his heirs. In fact, it is also possible to sell it and consume the proceeds. My objection to Baker's post really is just that elementary.

I suppose one might argue that I have missed something. I don't think I have and explain at gruesome length after the jump.

Mitt Headroom

Posted by Robert | 1/22/2012 12:58:00 AM

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