Added Election Note for 2004

Compared to 2000, AZ, LA, TN and WV shifted to gray and CA, DE and NJ became swing states. However, no swing state with more than a 7% difference in the 2000 popular vote proved to be competitive in 2004. Using that 7% as the new benchmark, instead of the old 10%, the races most likely to be competitive in 2008 will be:

IA 7, NM 5 (under 1% GOP)
WI 10 (1% DEM)
PA 21, NH 4 (2% DEM)
OH 20, NV 5 (2% GOP)
MI 17, MN 10, OR 7 (4% DEM)
FL 27, CO 9 (4% GOP)


with AR/DE/MO/NJ/WA (8%), and VA/CA (9%) as longshots. Thus in six states Bush won and six Kerry won, if 2% of the voters switch sides in 2008, all twelve could go exactly opposite how they went in 2004. Only drastically changed circumstances or mismatched candidates could bring the next seven (or others) into play.