The 患者's on a dripfeed - 削減(する)s now will kill us


The 泡 of hope that the 経済的な 危機 may be over, and 回復 soon 設立するd, burst last week.

The 後退,不況 is 公式に over but growth is almost invisible. The next se t of results will be produced in April.

There is now a 現実主義の 可能性 that Gordon Brown will go into the 選挙 in May with the economy, at best, bumping along the 底(に届く).

Nurse

Hanging in: The economy has just about been saved - but it is in very poor health

The 政府’s 決起大会/結集させるing cry will have to be: ‘It’s awful but it could have been a lot worse’.

I am not surprised. I have often said in this column that this isn’t a 後退,不況 like those of the 早期に Eighties and 早期に Nineties.

The British economy had a 大規模な heart attack when the arteries of the banking system 掴むd up.

The banks 危険に overextended themselves through 無謀な lending in the 人工的な 所有物/資産/財産 にわか景気 and by building a bizarre pyramid of コンビナート/複合体, paper 製品s which they didn’t understand and which 結局 崩壊(する)d in a heap.

As a result we are now, as a country, かなり poorer than we were a year ago.

More 前向きに/確かに, the 患者 is still alive thanks to a powerful cocktail of 経済的な 薬/医学s: 利益/興味 率s 削減(する) to 近づく 無; the 人工的な 創造 of money (いわゆる ‘quantitative 緩和’); 大規模な 予算 赤字s; 救助(する) and 半分-nationalisation of the banking system; and a big 平価切下げ.

But the country is still on a dripfeed and any honest 経済的な doctor will 警告する that the danger of a relapse into ‘二塁打-下落する 後退,不況’ is high. We need a 堅い stay in the 負債 中毒 clinic and a 異なる nt lifestyle.

And we have to recognise that much 損失 has been done. People have been 傷つける.

Millions have either lost their 職業s, been 軍隊d into part-time working, 未払いの internships and premature 退職 or, in the 私的な 部門, have taken 支払う/賃金 削減(する)s to keep their 職業s.

A lot of older people have no income from their 貯金 and have seen their 年金 基金s 削除するd in value.

Thousands of 商売/仕事 people have seen good companies, the 製品 of a lifetime’s work, 軍隊d to the 塀で囲む by banks 強化するing their credit 条件s.

The question now is: how best to support 回復?

The most 即座の 問題/発行する is what to do about the 広大な 政府 borrowing that has arisen from a 崩壊(する) in 税金 歳入 - 現在/一般に at its lowest 株 of the economy for 50 years - and rising public spending.

The 政府 has taken a lot of the cost of the banking 崩壊(する) and 後退,不況 on to its own 調書をとる/予約するs but we, the taxpayer, have to 支払う/賃金 the 法案.

I believe 政府 borrowing has to be 減ずるd; but the タイミング has to 反映する the health of the economy.

Two hundred 圧力(をかける)-ups in the gym, as ordered by Dr Osborne, could kill the 患者. I spent some time in the City of London last week talking to some of the 社債 売買業者s who are said to 持つ/拘留する the country’s 未来 in their 手渡すs.

They are obsessed with the country’s credit 率ing and 警告する that we are in danger of losing our 3倍になる-A status which enables the 政府 to borrow cheaply.

They have to be taken 本気で.

It would be 無謀な to 急落(する),激減(する) the economy 支援する into 後退,不況 through the 即座の large-規模 削除するing of public services and 職業s because the 政府’s 赤字 would 広げる instead of 契約.

We have to be sure that the 私的な 部門 can grow again, creating new 職業s, if 政府 契約s.

Some very difficult 決定/判定勝ち(する)s on public spending do need to be made and it is important that they are the 権利 決定/判定勝ち(する)s - not 損失ing 削減(する)s in 投資 that 土台を崩す the country’s long-称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 未来.

But there will have to be discipline over publicsector 支払う/賃金, 特に at the 最高の,を越す, and some cutbacks in numbers as there have been in the 私的な 部門.

It’s time to 離乳する the public 部門 off its all-普及(する) 特別手当 culture. It is possible to run the public 部門 more efficiently, though no one should pretend that this is 平易な.

Nor is it honest to say that some 政府 予算s, such as that of the NHS, should be ‘(犯罪の)一味-盗品故買者d’ from 削減(する)s.

By doing so, the 政府 and the Tories are 非難するing other valued services to 深く,強烈に 損失ing 削減(する)s.

The 過程 of rehabilitation will take years not months. Mervyn King, at the Bank of England, has 警告するd of a 10年間 of hard slog.

This can happen only if the public understands and supports what their 政府 is trying to do. What people tell me is they need a sense of where the country is going.

If there is to be a 10年間 of hard slog and slow rehabilitation what is 必須の is a 計画(する) for 回復 and it’s 負かす/撃墜する to 政府 to 供給する that sense of direction.

In the next few months there will be much 演劇 and excitement over every statistic 現れるing about the health of the economy.

A 始める,決める of 年4回の 人物/姿/数字s does not, in itself, mean a 広大な/多数の/重要な 取引,協定 ( 特に as the 人物/姿/数字s are usually 改訂するd). But the way 今後 does.

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