DOMINIC LAWSON:?The REAL 推論する／理由 大統領 Trump can't hope to match 中国's leader in the 関税 wars and why he's far from 存在 a master strategist

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Who said of 中国’s 大統領，／社長 Xi Jinping, ‘He’s a brilliant guy. He 支配（する）／統制するs 1.4 billion people with an アイロンをかける 握りこぶし’??

Yes, that was Donald J. Trump at one of his 決起大会／結集させるs during the 2024 US 選挙.?

And after Trump won, he 招待するd the 共産主義者 autocrat to his 就任（式）／開始. Xi turned it 負かす／撃墜する. Too busy 演習ing his アイロンをかける 握りこぶし at home.

現実に, there is a serious point here. Trump perpetually 労働s under the misapprehension that if only foreign autocrats could have some fun time with him at 損なう-a-Lago, they would succumb to his charm and see things his way.

It is astonishingly egocentric, 同様に as delusional. We are now seeing this with 大統領 Putin. Trump genuinely believed he could, by schmoozing the poisoner in the Kremlin, 説得する Moscow to abandon its war on ウクライナ共和国.?

Indeed, Trump regu larly （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that his unique 技術s as a personal 交渉者 would ‘end the war in 24 hours’.

注目する，もくろむ-watering

Is it now 夜明けing on the 大統領 that Putin can’t be 扱うd like some fellow 所有物／資産／財産 developer over martinis at the ゴルフ and country club? I 疑問 it: Trump is too old a dog to learn new tricks.

There is another stark difference between the US and the nations 支配するd by Xi and Putin. Those are 独裁政治s, whose peoples enjoy no 選挙（人）の choice, and where dissent can lead to death.?

大統領 Donald Trump said of 中国’s leader Xi Jinping: 'He's a brilliant guy. He 支配（する）／統制するs 1.4 billion people with an アイロンをかける 握りこぶし.' After Trump won the 選挙, he 招待するd the 共産主義者 autocrat to his 就任（式）／開始. Xi turned it 負かす／撃墜する

What this means, ーに関して／ーの点でs of Trump’s 宣言 of 貿易（する） war on 中国, is that Xi can 許す the sort of 深い 苦痛 it might 原因（となる） his people, in a way which a leader of the US can’t.

Or as the 追放するd Chinese 小説家 Hao Qun pointed out: ‘関税s and even 経済的な 許可／制裁s are not Xi Jinping’s 圧力 points. He is not 特に 関心d about the hardships 関税s may 原因（となる） for ordinary people.’

Trump may not care either, but he is an obsessive 観察者／傍聴者 of opinion 投票s ? or so I was told by someone who had had political 取引 with him.

When the 必然的な consequence of slapping 145 per cent 関税s on Chinese goods filters through into 注目する，もくろむ-watering price rises in US 消費者 markets, and the 終結 of many American retailers, those opinion 投票s will direct Trump’s 返答 . . . to 捜し出す a 早い 出口 from the 貿易（する） war he started, long before any of the supposed 利益s accrue. And don’t think that Beijing is unaware of this.

Then there are, in little more than a year and a half, the 中間選挙s. If 消費者 price インフレーション is 疫病／悩ますing Main Street ? which was the 長，指導者 推論する／理由 for Joe Biden’s unpopularity, 地位，任命する the Covid pandemic ? then 共和国の／共和党のs will panic. Those are the sort of democratic checks that Xi has no need to consider.

The Chinese 大統領，／社長 for life did have one moment when public dissent might have 転覆するd his leadership.?

Beijing’s 残酷に 施行するd ‘無-Covid’ 政策, 施行するing lockdowns long after the 残り／休憩（する） of the world had abandoned them, 結局 誘発するd the sort of 抗議するs that had not been seen in 中国 for １０年間s. 夜通し, Xi abandoned the 政策, without explanation or 陳謝.

Is it now 夜明けing on 大統領 Trump that Vladimir Putin can't be 扱うd like some fellow 所有物／資産／財産 developer over martinis at the ゴルフ and country club?

But in the 事例／患者 of the 貿易（する） war, the 共産主義者 leader can rely on the 国家主義 of the Chinese people, which should never be underestimated. They think, 歴史的に, ーに関して／ーの点でs of ‘the century of humiliation’ of 中国 by Western 力／強力にするs.

?In this 状況, an abhorrence of quailing before Washington is something Xi can and will 偉業／利用する, both for his own 人気 internally and ーに関して／ーの点でs of the image 中国 現在のs to the 残り／休憩（する） of the world.

The fact that Trump is 深く，強烈に 人気がない outside America will only be of 援助 in this. I have been struck by how even those in this country disgusted by the ruthless and intensely repressive nature of Xi’s 政権 still look 今後 to Trump getting a 血まみれの nose.

防御壁／支持者

There will be many more of them in the EU, which Trump, 正当化するing his 関税s, said ‘was created to screw the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, that’s the 目的 of it’.

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In reality, the US was instrumental in creating what became the EU, seeing such an （独立の）存在 as a 防御壁／支持者 against the Soviet empire.

The 中央情報局 was the biggest 選び出す／独身 財政上の 支援者 of the European movement in the 1950s, and what we now call the EU was the brainchild of ジーンズ Monnet, who had the closest imaginable 関係 with the US 明言する／公表する department.

The point is that if Trump were 戦略の in his 願望（する） to 孤立する 中国, he would not 同時に 選ぶ a fight with the EU.?

When Ursula 出身の der Leyen （機の）カム in as 大統領 of the European （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限, she 明言する／公表するd her 意向 to 減ずる the 危険s of dependence on 中国.

But the 影響 of Trump’s 課税 of 25 per cent 関税s on cars and steel from the EU (and from the UK too, by the way) is to 弱める the 手渡す of European leaders who favour such a 再編成.

But, 明白に, Trump is not 戦略の. His 支持者s eulogise what they call the Presi dent’s ‘4-D chess’, ーに関して／ーの点でs of his whipsawing 決定／判定勝ち（する）-making, but ? and I speak as someone who has written 調書をとる／予約するs on chess ? Trump is as far from a Grandmaster as it is possible to imagine.?

Chess 需要・要求するs the ability to think 深く，強烈に before moving, and a 完全にする absence of emotion in 決定／判定勝ち（する）-making. Trump is, to an 驚くべき／特命の／臨時の extent, a?creature of impulse 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金d with ferocious energy.

Perhaps the best insight into this （機の）カム from a former 従業員 in his casino 商売／仕事, John O’Donnell, who published a 調書をとる／予約する ? called Trumped! ? about the experience.

?O’Donnell wrote: ‘Donald’s conception of time was so circumscribed that it was astounding. He did 商売／仕事 完全に in the moment.’

Colossal

This is the polar opposite of men such as Xi and Putin, who can at least be recognised as 患者 and 耐えるing in their 追跡 of political 客観的なs, however inimical those are to our own 安全.

The 推論する／理由 for 大統領 Trump's dizzying 180-degree turn on 関税s was not just the 急落（する），激減（する） in 株 prices that underpin the 退職 基金s of millions of Americans, but also the 社債 market 逃げるing from the dollar

We saw that Trumpian inconstancy on a world-shaking 規模 last week, as he suddenly deferred the ver y high level of 関税s he had 課すd only days earlier against hundreds of nations (含むing an island 住むd 純粋に by penguins, blameless birds who, up until then, had no 推論する／理由 to be anti-American).

The 推論する／理由 for this dizzying 180-degree turn at 速度(を上げる） was not just the 急落（する），激減（する） in 株 prices that underpin the 退職 基金s of millions of Americans but also the 社債 market 逃げるing from the dollar. This is a 脅し to America much greater than anything that Xi can 召集（する）.

That the dollar has been, since the 影響 of the Second World War, the world’s reserve 通貨 is, as the former French 大統領，／社長 Valery Giscard d’Estaing put it, America’s ‘exorbitant 特権’.?

It has enabled the effortless 基金ing of the US’s colossal 負債s and, by keeping those borrowing 率s low, means that poor 世帯s in the developing world subsidise much richer ones in the US.

It has, in 影響, 基金d the American dream. But last week, even the Greek 政府 was able to raise money on the international markets at a lower 率 than the US, so 広大な／多数の／重要な was 投資家s’ panic over Trump’s wild wilfulness.

And Trump’s next move on the world 貿易（する） chessboard? We have no idea. And neither does he.