PETER OBORNE: Has Boris Johnson's high wire 戦略 for Brexit just got trickier after the 敗北・負かす of Nigel Farage's party in the Peterborough 選挙?

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Hanging out: Boris Johnson dangles from a zip line in 2012

Not for the first time, the pundits were 証明するd hopelessly wrong. They 予報するd Thursday's 補欠選挙 in Peterborough would be a 載冠（式）／即位（式） for Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage and his millionaire 実業家 候補者 マイク Greene.

事実上 every factor had played in Farage's favour.

Above all, the 補欠選挙 took place as the Brexit Party was still celebrating its seismic victory in the European 議会 選挙s ― coming first with 32 per cent of the 国家の 投票（する） and 掴むing 29 seats.

によれば a YouGov 調査する this week, it also had a six-point lead 国家的に ― on 26 per cent, with 労働 and the Lib Dems tied on 20 per cent and the Tories struggling with 18 per cent.

Peterborough, too, is a 堅固に プロの／賛成の-Brexit 選挙区／有権者, having 投票（する）d 60 per cent in favour of Leave at the 2016 国民投票.

Other advantages 含むd the fact that 投票者s see the Tories as rudderless, with a lame duck 首相 who has failed to 配達する Brexit.

And, as for the 労働 Party, its 記録，記録的な／記録する 地元で was a 不名誉, considering that the 補欠選挙 had been called because its MP had been sent to 刑務所，拘置所 for perverting the course of 司法（官） by lying to police, its Brexit 政策 is all at sea, and its 候補者 in the city had been （刑事）被告 of repellent anti-Semitism.

No wonder Farage was 確信して before the count ― 特に as 抗議する parties such as his 普通は 成し遂げる 井戸／弁護士席 in 補欠選挙s.

But, にもかかわらず all the cards stacked in his favour, he didn't 勝利，勝つ.

事実上 every factor had played in Farage's favour, but the Brexit Party did not 勝利，勝つ the Peterborough 補欠選挙

The result shows that ― Brexit or no Brexit ― there is still life in the two main parties.

労働 won the seat and the Tories （機の）カム third, rather than fifth (behind the Greens) as they did in last month's European 選挙s.

Much more 重要な than the 後退 for the nascent Brexit Party is the 影響 the Peterborough result will have on the Tory leadership 選挙, which 正式に got under way yesterday with the 公式の／役人 辞職 of Theresa May as party leader after 1,059 days in 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金.

によれば those pundits who wrongly 予報するd a Farage 勝利 in Peterborough, Boris Johnson is on course to 勝利，勝つ.

I'm not so sure.

True, he's the favourite. And I have no 疑問 that 投票者s who want a hard Brexit will 支援する the man they see as the only 政治家，政治屋 with the willpower and personality to take Britain out of the EU with a 取引，協定 or with No 取引，協定. But fellow hard Brexiteer Farage's 失敗 on Thursday means that shrewder 観察者／傍聴者s believe Johnson's chances have been わずかに dented.

Of course, countless people are fed up with the paralysis in Westminster and angry at 政治家，政治屋s' 失敗 to fulfil their 約束 to 配達する Brexit.

But, as 労働's winning 候補者 in Peterborough has 証明するd, there are a host of other 問題／発行するs that people care about ― such as 緊縮, 罪，犯罪 and the NHS.

Lisa Forbes saw off the 競争 from Farage's new party, which shows how people care about a host of 問題／発行するs other than Brexit?

This week's depressing news that Ford's engine 工場／植物 in Bridgend is to の近くに with the loss of 1,700 職業s 供給するd 弾薬／武器 for those who believe that the country 危険s 産業の 大混乱 if we leave the EU without a 取引，協定 ― which is something Mr Johnson is happy to countenance if he becomes PM.

This is why I'm 納得させるd that those Tory leadership 候補者s with the most pragmatic 態度 に向かって Brexit ― such as Jeremy 追跡（する）, Rory Stewart and Michael Gove ― should feel ブイ，浮標d this 週末.

This is the 見解（をとる）, too, of the Tory peer and 世論調査員 Lord Hayward who says that 'swing 投票者s' ― those who don't always 投票（する） for the same party and whose 決定／判定勝ち（する）s are difficult to 予報する ― in Tory 中心地域 areas such as the Home 郡s are 存在 put off by Mr Johnson's trenchant 見解（をとる）s.

Lord Hayward thinks that the 保守的なs 直面する '破壊' if they 控訴，上告 to Brexiteers without winning the support of floating 投票者s.

He also draws a distinction between hardcore Tory 行動主義者s, many of whom would be elated with a No 取引，協定 Brexit, and the silent 大多数 of calmer 保守的な 投票者s who are much more aware of the dangers.

T he 尊敬（する）・点d 世論調査員's 見解（をとる）s are an important corrective to a 投票 報告（する）／憶測d yesterday in a Johnson-supporting 国家の newspaper which （人命などを）奪う，主張するd he is the best-placed leadership 候補者 to 伸び（る） the support of 投票者s 現在／一般に 支援 the Brexit Party and Ukip and the most likely to 打ち勝つ Jeremy Corbyn.

However, it must be 公式文書，認めるd that the 調査する was carried out by the political consultancy CTF, which is run by Boris's strategist Lynton Crosby and which has 寄付するd money to his （選挙などの）運動をする.

一方／合間, there are intriguing 調印するs from Brussels that 示唆する Johnson's high-wire 'Brexit at all costs' 戦略 may not be necessary. While the 取引，協定 Mrs May got from Brussels ― but failed to 押し進める through the ありふれたs ― cannot be changed, there could be some 柔軟性 over the pivotal 問題／発行する of the Irish backstop.

EU 交渉者s might 熟視する／熟考する a new 時刻表／予定表 under which 確かな 制限s could be 除去するd 徐々に as 地位，任命する-Brexit 貿易（する） 会談 進歩d.

The prospect of a Tory 政府 under a new PM 達成するing Brexit should 苦しめる Jeremy Corbyn, にもかかわらず the smile on his 直面する yesterday after his success in Peterborough.

As we look at the pendulum of politics this 週末, there have been several ups and 負かす／撃墜するs.

Jeremy Corbyn up (a bit). Nigel Farage 負かす／撃墜する. Boris Johnson, the supposed Tory antidote to Farage, 負かす／撃墜する a fraction, too.

Incidentally, a 調査する asking 投票者s to compare Tory leadership 候補者s to 風刺漫画 characters 設立する Mr Johnson に例えるd to Pinocchio, Goofy and Dumbo.

And, にもかかわらず their party winning only 21 per cent of the 投票（する） in Peterborough, wiser Tories such as Jeremy 追跡（する） and Rory Stewart should be a lot happier today.

Sajid Javid was not 現在の at the 明言する／公表する dinner for 大統領 Trump this week

Mystery over Sajid's Trump 招待する?

Why wasn't Home 長官 Sajid Javid at this week's 明言する／公表する 祝宴 for 大統領 Donald Trump at Buckingham Palace?

This is a question that has been asked by Harun 旅宿泊所, 長官 general of the イスラム教徒 会議 of Britain.?

He wonders if Mr Javid was not 招待するd because his イスラム教徒 遺産 might have 感情を害する／違反するd Trump, who 問題／発行するd (n)役員／(a)執行力のある orders 一時的に banning people from seven おもに イスラム教徒 countries from entering America.

Certainly, Trump 論証するd 敵意 to London 市長 Sadiq 旅宿泊所, 述べるing him as a '石／投石する 冷淡な loser who should 焦点（を合わせる） on 罪，犯罪' and who had 'done a terrible 職業'.?

It would be shameful if Theresa May 認可するd any 無視する，冷たく断わる to Mr Javid so as to pander to the prejudice of the U.S. 大統領.

It has been a 堅い week for Theresa May in her last days as 総理大臣. Yet she has 行為／行うd herself with enormous 宙に浮く and dignity.

Never more so than when she read out the 深く，強烈に poignant last letter home of Captain Norman William George Skinner, who died on the beaches of Normandy. I'm sure 非，不，無 of those who are standing to be her 交替／補充 could have spoken it so beautifully.

Health 長官 Matt Hancock is an engaging man, but he should watch his language.?

During his （選挙などの）運動をする to become Tory leader, he's used the words 'f**k' and 'sh*t'.?

I imagine he's done it to attract attention ― as youngsters often do. But as 40-year-old Mr Hancock 円熟したs he will learn that people 推定する／予想する much better from public servants.