PETER OBORNE: Red lights are flashing. An 経済的な ハリケーン is coming...and we should all be 脅すd

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On the surface, things are looking rosy. The Office for 国家の 統計（学） last week 発表するd that 雇用 was at 76.1 per cent ― the 共同の highest level since 記録，記録的な／記録するs began.

消費者s are still spending. The International 通貨の 基金 says that the British economy will grow 1.4 per cent next year.

But I’m not 安心させるd. In fact, I don’t mind admitting that I’m rather 脅すd. This week the red lights began to flash, a 警告 that a 全世界の 後退，不況 is on the way.?

A Lehman Brothers 労働者 in London is pictured carrying his 所持品 out of the 会社／堅い, which 崩壊（する）d before the 2008 危機.?Last week we learned that the UK economy ― the world’s fifth largest 国家の economy ― shrank by 0.2 per cent in the three months to June this year

And not just a normal 後退，不況 of the 肉親，親類d which comes along every １０年間 or so. I 恐れる that an 経済的な ハリケーン might be about to descend.

Here in Britain and around the world we should 準備する ourselves for 職業 losses, failed 商売／仕事s and 破産した／（警察が）手入れするd hopes, and Brexit will have little to do with it.

Before I wrote about politics, I was a 財政上の 特派員, and I know that 経済的な trouble comes 手渡す in 手渡す with political 騒動.?

Go 支援する to the 広大な／多数の／重要な 不景気 of the 1930s. It led to the rise of fascism in 大陸の Europe and World War II. I don’t believe that history repeats itself, but it’s 安全な to say all 肉親，親類d of problems 嘘（をつく） ahead.?

Let’s take a more 詳細（に述べる）d look at the 警告 調印するs. Last week we learned that the UK economy ― the world’s fifth largest 国家の economy ― shrank by 0.2 per cent in the three months to June this year.

Donald Trump’s 脅しs against 大統領 Xi Jinping of 中国 may 勝利，勝つ him 国内の 人気. But it’s plain to see that the world is 逆戻りするing into a system of 競争相手 保護貿易論者 封鎖するs, 逆転するing the direction of travel of the last 50 years

Some 専門家s 解任するd it as a blip 原因（となる）d by companies 減ずるing 在庫／株s which had been 拡大するd ahead of Britain’s 初めの 推定する／予想するd 出発 from the EU on March 29.

Perhaps. But look at Germany ― globally the fourth largest economy and the engine room of Europe. 産業の 生産／産物 苦しむd its worst 年次の 減少（する） in a １０年間, and 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 (GDP) also fell by 0.1 per cent in the second ４半期/4分の1 of 2019.

At least Germany is strong enough to 天候 a 嵐／襲撃する. Not so Italy, which is a 財政上の 大災害 waiting to happen.

The country 借りがあるs an 注目する，もくろむ-watering $2.3 一兆 in public 負債. GDP growth is all but 非，不，無-existent and 商売／仕事 信用／信任 even lower まっただ中に political 不安定.

Its 壊れやすい 治める／統治するing 連合 looks finished, with Matteo Salvini ― 副 首相 and 長，率いる of the far-権利 League party, ― 押し進めるing for snap 選挙s in the autumn.

Most of all, though, I am unsettled by 中国, the nation that has driven 全世界の 経済成長 for the last three １０年間s.

The terrifying truth is that world growth has been 財政／金融d on a borrowing splurge for the past １０年間. によれば the 学校／設ける of International 財政／金融, world 負債 rose $3 一兆 in the first ４半期/4分の1 of 2019, to $246 一兆 ― that is three times 全世界の GDP

産業の 生産／産物 growth 攻撃する，衝突する a 17-year low in July. At the same time, 中国’s 輸出（する）-led growth has been slowing 急速な／放蕩な. In July, it 低迷d to いっそう少なく than 5 per cent ― Beijing needs much higher growth to 支える its 投資s at home and abroad.

Of course, cyclical 下降s of this 肉親，親類d, however unpleasant, are 決まりきった仕事 occurrences. What makes me truly nervous about this one is 開始するing 全世界の 負債, which now stands at a far higher level than it did ahead of the 2008 後退，不況.

This is 深く，強烈に worrying because 支援する in 2008, 政府s around the world were able to solve ― or, at least, ameliorate ― the problem by 投資するing 抱擁する sums, 保釈（金）ing out banks and re?floating the economy 経由で quantitative 緩和 (in which central banks 注入するd new money into the system).

Yes, it worked then, but if another 財政上の 衝突，墜落 of that size happens, we 欠如（する） the means to do it again. 国家の balance sheets have not 回復するd.

And it’s not just 国家の 負債. 普通の／平均（する） UK 世帯 負債 is now more than £15,000 ― that’s £2,000 more than the alarming level reached in 2008.?

Consider this terrifying statistic: unsecured 負債 stood at a £286 billion in 2008. That was unsustainable then, but today it stands at £428 billion.

The same 傾向s are seen 国祭的な. Last week, U.S. mortgage 負債 reached a 記録，記録的な／記録する level ― $9.406 一兆, によれば the 連邦の Reserve Bank of New York ― which, for the first time, より勝るs the high of $9.294 一兆 from 2008.

On Wednesday something 悪意のある occurred. For the first time in 12 years, 産する／生じるs on long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 社債s fell below those on short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 社債s.?

For the last half century, this いわゆる inversion of the 産する／生じる curve has been an infallible 調印する that 後退，不況 is on its way.

The terrifying truth is that world growth has been 財政／金融d on a borrowing splurge for the past １０年間.

によれば the 学校／設ける of International 財政／金融, world 負債 rose $3 一兆 in the first ４半期/4分の1 of 2019, to $246 一兆 ― that is three times 全世界の GDP. Unimaginable. And, I’m afraid, unsustainable.

As all of us know from いつかs unpleasant personal experience, you 支払う／賃金 a price if you live beyond your 経済的な means. A day of reckoning is on its way.

Go 支援する to the 広大な／多数の／重要な 不景気 of the 1930s. It led to the rise of fascism in 大陸の Europe and World War II. I don’t believe that history repeats itself, but it’s 安全な to say all 肉親，親類d of problems 嘘（をつく） ahead. 仲買人s are pictured outside the 在庫／株 交流 during the 塀で囲む Street 衝突，墜落 of 1929

The 状況／情勢 is made even more dangerous by ぼんやり現れるing 貿易（する） wars.

Donald Trump’s 脅しs against 大統領 Xi Jinping of 中国 may 勝利，勝つ him 国内の 人気. But it’s plain to see that the world is 逆戻りするing into a system of 競争相手 保護貿易論者 封鎖するs, 逆転するing the direction of travel of the last 50 years.

The World 貿易（する） Organisation ― which has done so much to create wealth by 解放する／自由なing up 全世界の 貿易（する） ― is almost impotent.

Worryingly, that’s the 会・原則 which 地位，任命する-Brexit Britain will depend on when we やめる the 安全 of the EU 選び出す／独身 market and customs union. But Brexit, no 取引，協定 or さもなければ, isn’t the 推論する／理由 for what may 広げる in the coming year.

推定する／予想する a wave of 国家の 破産s. One already looks 必然的な in Argentina, and 確かな in Italy, which can’t 生き残る in the Eurozone for much longer. Nor can Greece. And the knock-on 影響s will be 抱擁する.

We have become used to 比較して benign 経済成長 stretching over １０年間s. Now the world is ente （犯罪の）一味 a new and dangerous 環境.