Low 率s, more bank 苦痛 tipped for 2020
WHAT AWAITS THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN 2020
* BANKS TO CONTINUE THEIR ROUGH RUN
A heady cocktail of low 利益／興味 率s, 抱擁する remediation 法案s and 強化するing 利ざやs has wreaked havoc on a banking 部門 already skint on public 約束.
And with Westpac's child 開発／利用 スキャンダル taking 感情 to a fresh nadir, you can bet your franking credits there'll be more PR work for at least one 財政上の behemoth in 2020.
利益（をあげる） at NAB, ANZ, Westpac and 連邦／共和国 Bank fell by 7.8 per cent - or $2.27 billion - in FY19 as the quartet 始める，決める aside millions to 補償する 顧客s over the sort of 問題／発行するs 空気／公表するd at last year's 王室の （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限, and for 再編成 in 期待 of a low-growth 未来.
Of course, the 財政上の and reputational cost for Westpac is 始める，決める to be even greater.
The bank's lawyers have signalled they 推定する／予想する the bank to 収容する／認める to all or most of the 23 million 違反s of the Anti-Money Laundering and 反対する-テロ行為 財政／金融ing 行為／法令／行動する it has been （刑事）被告 of by the Australian 処理／取引 報告（する）／憶測s and 分析 Centre.
AUSTRAC is 捜し出すing a civil 刑罰，罰則 of between $17 million and $21 million for each offence, making the 最大限 罰金 a 可能性のある, if ありそうもない, $483 一兆.
A 始める，決める of agreed facts is 存在 worked on with a 刑罰，罰則 審理，公聴会 to take place in the 連邦の 法廷，裁判所 in February or March, the beginnings of what will likely be a 堅い year for the country's second largest 貸す人.
* WILL LOWE GET UNCONVENTIONAL?
The cash 率 was 削減（する） to a new かつてない low three times in 2019 as the economy 低迷d, and is tipped to 長，率いる even closer to 無 in the new year - probably as soon as February.
But にもかかわらず running low on 砕く, Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe has shown little appetite to commit to 慣習に捕らわれない 政策 対策 such as quantitative 緩和.
Still, the prospect of QE - which would 伴う／関わる the central bank 購入（する）ing 政府 社債s ーするために 上げる cash 供給（する）, and encourage lending and 投資 - appears ますます likely, 特に if Australia's growth 見通し continues to 軟化する, 労働 market slack 固執するs, and any 調印する of a 給料 選ぶ-up remains elusive.
The RBA is 広範囲にわたって 推定する／予想するd to lower the cash 率 from 0.75 per cent to a new かつてない low of 0.5 per cent in February in a fresh 試みる／企てる to kickstart spending in a 世帯 部門 that has taken any 最近の 刺激 対策 to the bank instead of the shops.
Dr Lowe says he does not 推定する／予想する to have to use quantitative 緩和 in Australia but, then again, the RBA was 予報するing the next 率 move would be up, not 負かす／撃墜する, this time last year.
* PROPERTY SURGE TO CONTINUE
One - if not the only - area of the economy that has 利益d from an 緩和 of 通貨の 政策 is the country's $6.6 一兆 所有物／資産／財産 market.
And the price 殺到する over the 支援する half of 2019 shows no 調印する of abating in 2020 - even as 関心s remain that continued ultra-low 利益／興味 率s could reinflate Australia's 住宅 泡.
In tandem with looser lending 基準s, three 率 削減（する）s since June have helped put 住宅 values on 跡をつける to 逆転する an 18-month 下降 and 攻撃する，衝突する new 頂点（に達する）s by March, even as the broader economy flatlines.
所有物／資産／財産 prices banked their fifth straight month of 伸び（る）s in November with a 1.7 per cent climb - the largest 月毎の 伸び（る） since 2003 - with the largest markets of Sydney and Melbourne fuelling the 殺到する.
The 傾向 could 証明する a saviour for the construction 部門, which has 苦しむd a 厳しい 下降 in new home 是認s, while others say a continued 所有物／資産／財産 market 回復 will help 上げる 消費者 wealth and spending 力／強力にする.
However, RBA board members have 表明するd 関心 that, with 住宅 prices and auction 通関手続き／一掃 率s already 回復するing from a two-year 拒絶する／低下する, 所有物／資産／財産 prices might be "極端に inflated" by lower 利益／興味 率s as banks pass on their lower borrowing costs in the form of 減ずるd mortgage 率s.
* AUSTRALIAN STOCKS TO KE EP CLIMBING
Also hitting new 高さs during 2019 was the （判断の）基準 ASX/200, up more than 20 per cent for the year (at the time of 令状ing) for the bourse's best year in a １０年間.
The 索引 頂点（に達する）d at 6,893.7 points on November 29 - a new intra-day 記録，記録的な／記録する - and the All Ords reached a new crest of 6,995.9 points at the same time thanks to low 利益／興味 率s and the 再開 of 貿易（する） 会談 between 中国 and the US.
Continued strength in 公正，普通株主権s in 2020 is 推定する／予想するd, though is reliant on healthy relations between US and 中国, 同様に as an 整然とした 決意／決議 of the Brexit 過程.
While the US 大統領の 選挙 in November must also be factored in, continued 改良 in 地元の house prices, その上の 経済的な 刺激 from the RBA and 加速するd 連邦の 政府 組織／基盤／下部構造 spending should 上げる 信用／信任 in the market.
