ロシアの 議会のs to stay in Africa にもかかわらず Wagner 反乱（を起こす）
Malian デモ参加者／実演宣伝者s 停止する a 旗，新聞一面トップの大見出し／大々的に報道する reading 'Thank you, Wagner' in February 2022. Mali's 革命評議会 brought in ロシアの 議会のs to support the army in the fight against jihadists
Ever since Wagner 創立者 Yevgeny Prigozhin 行う／開催する／段階d a 反乱（を起こす） in Russia last month, questions have been raised over the 未来 of his group in Africa, the cradle of its wealth and notoriety.
Prigozhin's 劇の 反乱 ended in a 取引，協定 by which he was 推定する／予想するd to move to 隣人ing Belarus with some of his men.
詳細（に述べる）s about the （許可，名誉などを）与える remain あらましの, but as far as Africa is 関心d, Wagner can count on its geopolitical and 経済的な 負わせる to 生き残る in one 形態／調整 or another.
"Let's continue to train, 改善する our 技術s, and then off to the next adventure to Africa," Prigozhin said last week, によれば a ビデオ, not authenticated by AFP, 地位，任命するd on 電報電信 by a Wagner -linked account.
As African countries and Russia 準備する for a 首脳会議 in St. Petersburg, here is a snapshot of Wagner's presence on the continent:
- 範囲 of services -
Wagner is 率直に active in at least four countries in Africa, typically shoring up 壊れやすい 政権s in 交流 for minerals and other natural wealth.
In Mali, Wagner 申し込む／申し出s a 十分な menu of services. Its 議会のs 保護する the 現在の 政権, 行為／行う 軍の 操作／手術s and training and advise on the 改正 of 採掘 法律s and even of the 憲法.
In Sudan, Wagner has been （刑事）被告 by 観察者／傍聴者s of 存在 ひどく 伴う／関わるd in the 繁栄するing and 違法な gold 貿易（する）.
It keeps in の近くに 接触する with the 早い Support 軍隊s, a 議会の 部隊 locked in a 血まみれの 力／強力にする struggle with army 長，指導者 Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
There is little 疑問 that Wagner will 生き残る in one 形態／調整 or another
In the Central African 共和国 (CAR), ロシアの 議会のs have been 現在の since 2018, supporting 大統領 Faustin Archange Touadera in return for 譲歩s to 偉業／利用する gold, diamonds and other minerals.
In Libya, Wagner is の近くに to Khalifa Haftar, a strongman based in the east of the country. によれば Pauline Bax, Africa Program 副 Director at the International 危機 Group, several hundred Wagner 軍隊／機動隊s are （軍隊を）展開する，配備するd to 保護する 軍の bases and oil 取り付け・設備s there.
- 許可／制裁s -
The group is frequently （刑事）被告 of 残虐（行為）s and 略奪するing of natural 資源s in Africa, 干渉するing in 地元の politics in 非常に／多数の 衝突s and running anti-Western （警察などへの）密告，告訴（状） （選挙などの）運動をするs, 特に in francophone West Africa.
The 部隊d 明言する／公表するs has 課すd 許可／制裁s on Prigozhin and labelled his group a transnational 犯罪の organisation.
After an 独立した・無所属 UN 専門家 （刑事）被告 the CAR army and its ロシアの 同盟（する）s of 行為／法令／行動するs of 暴力／激しさ, the EU 発表するd new 許可／制裁s against several Wagner leaders there.
Last week, Britain 課すd 許可／制裁s on 13 people or 商売／仕事s with 申し立てられた／疑わしい links to Wagner 乱用s, 含むing 拷問 and 死刑執行s, in Mali and the CAR, and （刑事）被告 of 脅すing the peace in Sudan.
- Deniability -
Created in the 早期に 2010s, Wagner quickly 設立するd itself as an African proxy army for Russia, 許すing Moscow to 公式に 否定する any 関与 in its 操作／手術s.
"Wagner is neither an army 部隊 nor an 完全に 私的な （独立の）存在," said Maxime Audinet, 研究員 at the French war college's IRSEM 学校／設ける.
"It serves the 公式の／役人 利益／興味s of Moscow, but also Prigozhin's personal ambitions. It's a thin line," he told AFP, in 発言／述べるs that were made before the 反乱（を起こす）.
- 地位，任命する-反乱（を起こす） change? -
Wagner's model will need to be 再評価するd in the light of the 反乱（を起こす） and the 解決／入植地, say 分析家s.
The group is self-財政／金融ing, at least ーに関して／ーの点でs of 支払う／賃金ing its, men but still needs 兵たん業務 support from the ロシアの defence 省, said Bax.
This could give Moscow てこ入れ／借入資本 to 課す a more loyal 人物／姿／数字 at Wagner's 舵輪／支配, and perhaps order a 指名する change or even 取って代わる the group with a different ロシアの outfit 供給するing 類似の services.
ロシアの 外務大臣 Sergei Lavrov said Wagner's 未来 in Africa was "above all up to the 政府s of the countries 関心d."
But Aditya Pareek at Janes, a 個人として-owned British open-source 知能 company, said it was ありそうもない that Russia could ever 支配（する）／統制する Wagner 完全に.
"Prigozhin's 派閥 is ありそうもない to prioritise その上のing the Kremlin's 利益／興味s," he said.
- 耐えるing 商売／仕事 model -
Whatever happens to Wagner, its 商売／仕事 概念 is probably here to stay, said Bax.
Billboards for a new ロシアの beer, Ti L'Or, which went on sale in the Central Africa 共和国 th is year
"Wagner has introduced a model that seems to work for at least two countries," she said, in 言及／関連 to Mali and the CAR.
"Even if Wagner 中止するs to 存在する, other companies will try to fill the 無効の."
This theory is 支援するd by African 政府s' １０年間s-long tradition of using mercenaries, often to 補償する for their armies' 証拠不十分.
The "あいまいな international legalese" defining what is a mercenary "makes Africa an all-too-attractive place to do 商売／仕事 with 柔軟な morals," 研究員 Amanda Brooke Kadlec wrote in New Lines Magazine.
"If the Wagner Group or other ロシアの competitors are perceived as incompetent or unreliable because of the 大混乱 at home, there are plenty of other 選択s out there."
