Challenging times ahead for 中東の, North Africa: 国際通貨基金
The Middle East and North Africa 地域 is 直面するing challenging times because of lower oil prices, the fallout from 地域の 緊張s and civil 衝突, the International 通貨の 基金 said Tuesday.
The 国際通貨基金 said in its World 経済的な 見通し 報告（する）／憶測 that a modest 回復 in oil prices was likely to have little 衝撃 on growth in MENA oil-輸出（する）ing countries.
"Since the end of World War II, countries in this 地域 have 苦しむd more 衝突s than those in any other 地域 in the world," the 報告（する）／憶測 said.
The 国際通貨基金 said in its World 経済的な 見通し 報告（する）／憶測 that a modest 回復 in oil prices was likely to have little 衝撃 on growth in MENA oil-輸出（する）ing countr ies ?Haidar Mohammed Ali (AFP/とじ込み／提出する)
"The 経済的な costs of 衝突 are 大規模な for some countries and the spillovers large."
It said an 概算の 10 million 難民s "have mostly stayed within countries in the 地域 -- for example, since 2010, 難民s from Iraq and Syria have 上げるd the 全住民s of Lebanon and Jordan by one-４半期/4分の1 and one-fifth, それぞれ."
Such 衝突s 背負い込む 重要な 経済的な costs.
After hitting a 10-year low in January, oil prices 決起大会／結集させるd by 50 パーセント to $45 in August, mostly 予定 to involuntary 生産／産物 outages that brought balance to the oil market, the 国際通貨基金 said.
It 予測（する） that prices will rise 徐々に from an 普通の／平均（する） of $43 a バーレル／樽 this year to $51 a バーレル／樽 in 2017.
The 国際通貨基金 持続するd its growth 発射／推定s for most of the oil 輸出業者s in the 湾 協調 会議 (ペルシャ湾岸協力会議) that 含むs 石油輸出国機構 中心人物 Saudi Arabia.
However, it 昇格d its 見通し for Iran on higher oil 輸出（する）s after Western 許可／制裁s over Tehran's 核の programme were 解除するd, and for Iraq on 増加するd 生産／産物.
The 国際通貨基金 増加するd its 2016 growth 予測（する）s for the Islamic 共和国 to 4.5 パーセント, from 4.0 パーセント in April. It also raised next year's 人物／姿／数字 to 4.1 パーセント, from 3.7 パーセント.
In Iraq, the growth 予測（する） for this year was 解除するd to a strong 10.3 パーセント 予定 to higher than 推定する／予想するd oil 生産／産物.
But growth 発射／推定s for Iraq in 2017 were 厳しく lowered to just 0.5 パーセント because of 安全 challenges and lower 投資s in the oil 部門, the 国際通貨基金 said.
The 報告（する）／憶測 also 持続するd growth 発射／推定s for the 地域's oil importers as a whole, although it said the economies of countries hosting millions of 難民s from Syria's war have 苦しむd immensely.
MENA oil 輸出業者s have lost hundreds of billions of dollars since the 中央の-2014 衝突，墜落 in 天然のまま prices, transforming 抱擁する 黒字／過剰s into 不足（高）s.
"Most (countries) continue to 強化する 財政政策 in 返答 to structurally lower oil 歳入s, and 財政上の 部門 liquidity continues to 拒絶する／低下する. Many countries in the 地域 also remain 影響する／感情d by 争い and 衝突," the 報告（する）／憶測 said.
It 持続するd its growth 予測（する）s for Saudi Arabia, the 地域's largest economy, at 1.2 パーセント this year and 2.0 パーセント in 2017.
