EXPLAINER: What's the 最新の in Russia's dance with default?
Russia appeared to dodge default on its foreign 負債 by dipping into its 不十分な dollar reserves. But Moscow's 負債 演劇 is far from over.
Russia's 財政／金融 省 abandoned its 提案 to use ルーブルs instead of dollars to make 延滞の 支払い（額）s on two 政府 社債s, 説 Friday that it had transferred the money to an account at Citigroup: $564.4 million for a 社債 予定 in 2022, and $84.4 million for another 予定 in 2042. A 30-day grace period on making the 延滞の 支払い（額）s was to 満了する／死ぬ Wednesday.
The 政府 had （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that U.S. 許可／制裁s 氷点の its 大規模な 通貨 reserves held abroad meant it couldn't 支払う／賃金 and that Russia wasn't to 非難する for any default, the first on foreign 負債 since the 1917 Bolshevik 革命.
Even if Russia is 設立する to have made the most 最近の 支払い（額）s, others are coming 予定. 加える, U.S. 許可 for American bondholders to 受託する 支払い（額） on ロシアの 社債s is 始める，決める to 満了する／死ぬ May 25, so even if Russia tries to 支払う／賃金, 投資家s would not 合法的に be able to take the money.
Here are some of the 問題／発行するs surrounding ロシアの 負債:
WHY ARE PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT A POSSIBLE RUSSIAN DEFAULT?
FILE - 青年 ride scooters in Manezhnaya Square 近づく Red Square and the Kremlin after sunset in Moscow, Russia, on April 20, 2022. Russia 突き破るd off a default on its 負債 Friday, April 29, 2022, by making a last-minute 支払い（額） using its precious dollar reserves sitting outside the country, U.S. 財務省 公式の／役人s said. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, とじ込み／提出する)
Ratings 機関s have said that if 社債s 明示する 支払い（額） in dollars, then 支払う／賃金ing in ルーブルs 量s to a 失敗 to 支払う／賃金 as 約束d. One 推論する／理由 Russia would want to 支払う／賃金 in ルーブルs instead of its reserves of foreign 通貨 is that a large part of them have been frozen abroad. It made Friday's 支払い（額） by dipping into 不十分な 内部の reserves that 許可／制裁s could not touch.
Russia has not definitively 避けるd default unless the money made its way from Citigroup through the banking system to bondholders ahead of Wednesday's 最終期限.
"Bondholders don't get paid until Citigroup 過程s the 支払い（額）s" and pass them on to clearinghouses that 分配する 支払い（額） to bondholders, said Jay S. Auslander, a 最高の，を越す 君主 負債 lawyer at the 会社／堅い of Wilk Auslander in New York.
Banks are 存在 極端に 用心深い about any 処理／取引s with Russia and may want to check with U.S. and UK 当局 first. But "I think it's likely is that the 基金s will make it to the bondholders, in which 事例／患者, they will not be in default this time," Auslander said.
HOW MUCH DOES RUSSIA OWE?
About $40 billion in foreign 社債s, about half of that to foreigners. Before the start of the war, Russia had around $640 billion in foreign 通貨 and gold reserves, much of which was held overseas and is now frozen.
HOW DO YOU KNOW IF A COUNTRY IS IN DEFAULT?
Ratings 機関s can lower the 率ing to default or a 法廷，裁判所 can decide the 問題／発行する. Bondholders who have credit default 交換（する）s - 契約s that 行為／法令／行動する like 保険 政策s against default - can ask a 委員会 of 財政上の 会社／堅い 代表者／国会議員s to decide whether a 失敗 to 支払う／賃金 負債 should 誘発する／引き起こす a payout, which still isn´t a formal 宣言 of default.
The Credit Default 決意 委員会 - an 産業 group of 14 banks and 投資家s that 決定するs whether or not to 支払う／賃金 on these 交換（する）s - said Friday that they "continue to 監視する the 状況／情勢" after Russia´s 支払い（額）. After another 会合 Tuesday, the 委員会 said it would continue to 監視する the 状況／情勢 and "defer 出版（物） of an 初期の 名簿（に載せる）／表（にあげる） of Deliverable 義務s."
WHAT CAN INVESTORS DO?
The formal way to 宣言する default is if 25% or more of bondholders say they didn't get their money. Once that happens, 準備／条項s say all Russia´s other foreign 社債s are also in default, and bondholders could then 捜し出す a 法廷，裁判所 judgment to 施行する 支払い（額）.
In normal circumstances, 投資家s and the defaulting 政府 typically 交渉する a 解決／入植地 in which bondholders are given new 社債s that are 価値（がある） いっそう少なく but that at least give them some 部分的な／不平等な 補償（金）.
But 許可／制裁s 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業 取引 with Russia's 財政／金融 省. And no one knows when the war will end or how much defaulted 社債s could 勝利，勝つd up 存在 価値（がある）.
In this 事例／患者, 宣言するing default and 告訴するing "might not be the wisest choice," Auslander said. "You can't 交渉する with Russia 権利 now. You're wading into a world where 許可／制裁s are 絶えず changing, where there are a lot of unknowns. So you may see creditors decide at this point to keep their 意向s の近くに to their vest and hang tight for now."
Popular 感情 is a consideration for 投資家s, 特に any who may have bought 社債s at knocked-負かす／撃墜する prices in hopes of 利益（をあげる）ing from a 解決／入植地.
"権利 now is maybe not a good time to 急ぐ in and show that you were 利益（をあげる）ing off 苦しめるd 負債 in ロシアの 社債s," Auslander said. "Will that time come in the 未来? I 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う it will."
Once a country defaults, it can be 削減（する） off from 社債-market borrowing until the default is sorted out and 投資家s 回復する 信用／信任 in the 政府´s ability and 乗り気 to 支払う／賃金. But Russia has already been 削減（する） off from Western 資本／首都 markets, so any return to borrowing is a long way off anyway.
The Kremlin can still borrow ルーブルs at home, where it mostly relies on ロシアの banks to buy its 社債s.
WHAT IMPACT COULD A RUSSIAN DEFAULT HAVE?
The country is already 苦しむing 相当な 経済的な 衝撃 from Western 許可／制裁s, which have sent foreign companies 逃げるing and 混乱に陥れる／中断させるd 貿易（する） and 財政上の 関係 with the 残り／休憩（する） of the world. Default would be one more symptom of that 孤立／分離 and disruption.
投資 分析家s are 慎重に reckoning that a Russia default would not have the 肉親，親類d of 衝撃 on 全世界の 財政上の markets and 会・原則s that （機の）カム from an earlier default in 1998. 支援する then, Russia´s default on 国内の ルーブル 社債s led the U.S. 政府 to step in and get banks to 保釈（金） out Long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 資本／首都 管理／経営, a large U.S. hedge 基金 whose 崩壊（する）, it was 恐れるd, could have shaken the wider 財政上の and banking system.
支えるもの／所有者s of the 社債s - for instance, 基金s that 投資する in 現れるing market 社債s - could take serious losses. Russia, however, played only a small 役割 in 現れるing market 社債 索引s, 限界ing the losses to 基金 投資家s.
While the war itself is having 破滅的な consequences ーに関して／ーの点でs of human 苦しむing and higher food and energy prices 世界的な, default on 政府 社債s would be "definitely not systemically 関連した," Kristalina Georgieva, 長，率いる of the International 通貨の 基金, has said.< /p>
FILE - Cars are parked in 前線 of Russia's Central Bank building in Moscow, Russia, Jan. 30, 2015. Prices for ロシアの credit default 交換（する）s - 保険 契約s that 保護する an 投資家 against a default - 急落（する），激減（する）d はっきりと 夜通し after Moscow used its precious 外貨準備高 to make a last minute 負債 支払い（額） on Friday April 29, 2022. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, とじ込み／提出する)
FILE - ロシアの 大統領 Vladimir Putin listens during a 会合 of the Russia the Land of 適切な時期 監督上の Board at the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia, on April 20, 2022. Russia 突き破るd off a default on its 負債 Friday, April 29, 2022, by making a last-minute 支払い（額） using its precious dollar reserves sitting outside the country, U.S. 財務省 公式の／役人s said. (Mikhail Tereshchenko/スプートニク, Kremlin Pool Photo 経由で AP, とじ込み／提出する)
