US インフレーション 攻撃する,衝突するs its lowest point since 早期に 2021 as prices 緩和する for gas, groceries and used cars

WASHINGTON (AP) - Squeezed by painfully high prices for two years, Americans have 伸び(る)d some much-needed 救済 with インフレーション reaching its lowest point since 早期に 2021 - 3% in June compared with a year earlier - thanks in part to 緩和 prices for ガソリン, 航空機による fares, used cars and groceries.

The インフレーション 人物/姿/数字 the 政府 報告(する)/憶測d Wednesday was 負かす/撃墜する はっきりと from a 4% 年次の 率 in May, though still above the 連邦の Reserve´s 2% 的. From May to June, 全体にわたる prices rose 0.2%, up from just 0.1% in the previous month but still comparatively 穏やかな.

Even with Wednesday's better-than-推定する/予想するd インフレーション data, the Fed is considered all but sure to raise its (判断の)基準 率 when it 会合,会うs in two weeks. But with price 増加するs slowing - or even 落ちるing 完全な - across a 範囲 of goods and services, many 経済学者s say they think the central bank could 持つ/拘留する off on what had been 推定する/予想するd to be another 率 引き上げ(る) in September, should インフレーション continue to 冷静な/正味の.

"It takes the second 引き上げ(る) off the (米)棚上げする/(英)提議する, if that 傾向 continues," said Laura Rosner-Warburton, 上級の 経済学者 at MacroPolicy 視野s. "They're probably on 持つ/拘留する for the 残り/休憩(する) of the year."

On 塀で囲む Street, 投資家s 元気づけるd the encouraging news, sending 在庫/株 and 社債 prices higher. 投資家s have been 熱望して 心配するing the 結局の end of the central bank's 率 増加するs.

The Fed has raised its (判断の)基準 率 by a 相当な 5 百分率 points si nce March 2022, the steepest pace of 増加するs in four 10年間s. Its 推定する/予想するd 引き上げ(る) this month will follow the central bank´s 決定/判定勝ち(する) to pause its 率 増加するs last month after 10 連続した 引き上げ(る)s.

File - A food shopper pushes a cart of groceries at a supermarket in Bellflower, Calif., on Monday, Feb. 13, 2023. Over the past 12 months, gas prices have dropped, grocery costs have risen more slowly and used cars have become less expensive.(AP Photo/Allison Dinner, File)

とじ込み/提出する - A food shopper 押し進めるs a cart of groceries at a supermarket in Bellflower, Calif., on Monday, Feb. 13, 2023. Over the past 12 months, gas prices have dropped, grocery costs have risen more slowly and used cars have become いっそう少なく expensive.(AP Photo/Allison Dinner, とじ込み/提出する)

Wednesday's インフレーション data may 解除する hopes that the Fed will 達成する a difficult "soft 上陸," in which price 増加するs 落ちる 支援する to 2% without 原因(となる)ing a spike in 失業 or a 深い 後退,不況. Last week, the 政府 報告(する)/憶測d solid 雇うing in June, though it slowed compared with earlier this year. The 失業率 ticked lower, from 3.7% to 3.6%, 近づく a half-century low.

When the Fed began raising its 重要な 率 a year ago, many 経済学者s 推定する/予想するd that 失業 would have to rise 意味ありげに to 抑制(する) インフレーション. Though インフレーション isn´t yet fully tamed, some 経済学者s say they think it can 落ちる to a level 近づく the Fed´s 2% 的 earlier than they had 推定する/予想するd.

除外するing the volatile food and energy prices, いわゆる 核心 インフレーション was lower last month than 経済学者s had 推定する/予想するd, rising just 0.2% from May to June, the smallest 月毎の 増加する in nearly two years. Compared with a year ago, 核心 インフレーション does remain 比較して high, at 4.8%, but 負かす/撃墜する from a 5.3% 年次の 率 in May.

In just the past two months, 全体にわたる インフレーション, 手段d year over year, has slowed from nearly 5% in April to just 3% now. Much of that 進歩 反映するs the fading of spikes in food and energy prices that followed Russia's 侵略 of ウクライナ共和国 last spring. インフレーション is now 意味ありげに below its 頂点(に達する) of 9.1% in June 2022.

Gas prices have fallen to about $3.54 a gallon on 普通の/平均(する), 国家的に, 負かす/撃墜する from a $5 頂点(に達する) last year. Grocery prices have leveled off in the past three months and were 不変の from May to June. Milk prices, having dropped for a third straight month, are 負かす/撃墜する 1.9% from last year.

Eggs, which had 急上昇するd last year after an 突発/発生 of avian flu decimated chicken flocks, have dropped to $2.22 a dozen - 負かす/撃墜する more than 7% just in the past month. Egg prices had 頂点(に達する)d at $4.82 in January, によれば 政府 data. Still , they remain above the 普通の/平均(する) pre-pandemic price of about $1.60 a dozen.

経済学者s say インフレーション isn't likely to keep 落ちるing at such a 早い pace. On a 12-month basis, インフレーション could even tick up in the coming months now that big 減少(する)s in gas prices - they're 負かす/撃墜する 27% in the past year - have been 達成するd..

In particular, 航空運賃s 急落(する),激減(する)d 8.1% just from May to June, hotel costs 2% and car 賃貸しの prices 1.4% - sharp 減少(する)s that aren't likely to be replicated.

And the cost of some services are still rising and likely to stay high this year, 潜在的に keeping 核心 prices elevated. 自動車 保険 costs, for instance, have 急に上がるd, and are up 16.9% from a year ago. Americans are 運動ing more than during the pandemic and 原因(となる)ing more 事故s. 保険 is also costlier because 乗り物 prices are much higher than before the pandemic, and cars are therefore more 価値のある.

Restaurant prices are still moving up, having risen 0.4% from May to June and nearly 8% from a year earlier. Restaurant owners have had to keep raising 給料 to find and 保持する 労働者s, and many of them are passing their higher labor costs on to their 顧客s by raising prices.

Chrishon Lampley, owner of the ワイン brand Love Cork Screw, says more expensive restaurant prices have led her to 削減(する) 支援する on taking 見込みのある 顧客s out for meals. Instead, she gives 可能性のある ワイン 買い手s small gifts.

The cost of printing labels for her ワイン 瓶/封じ込めるs has nearly 二塁打d in the past year, Lampley said, mostly because of higher labor costs. She's 減ずるd her travel costs as a result. Lampley now chooses 延長するd-stay hotels with kitchens rather than 正規の/正選手 hotels, and she rents smaller cars even though she often carts around 事例/患者s of ワイン.

"Everything has just become way more frugal," she said. "I've got to pull 支援する. "

議長,司会を務める Jerome Powell and other Fed 公式の/役人s have 焦点(を合わせる)d their attention, in particular, on chronically high インフレーション for restaurant meals, 自動車 保険 and other items in the economy's sprawling service 部門. It's a big 推論する/理由 why several Fed policymakers were still talking earlier this week about the 見込み of two more 率 引き上げ(る)s.

"We´re likely to need a couple more 率 引き上げ(る)s over the course of this year to really bring インフレーション 支援する into ... a 維持できる 2% path," Mary Daly, 大統領,/社長 of the 連邦の Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said on Monday.

At the same time, Daly said she was "持つ/拘留するing myself to ... extreme data dependence" and could 転換 her thinking based on 後継の 報告(する)/憶測s. There will be two more インフレーション 報告(する)/憶測s - for July and August - before the Fed 会合,会うs in September.

Some drivers of higher prices are likely to keep fading and pull 負かす/撃墜する インフレーション in the coming months. Used car prices sank 0.5% from May to June, after two months of big spikes. New-car prices, too, have begun to 緩和する as a result, and were 不変の from May to June.

In June, used 乗り物 prices paid by 売買業者s were 負かす/撃墜する 5.6% from a year earlier, helping to 冷静な/正味の インフレーション, によれば data gathered by 黒人/ボイコット 調書をとる/予約する, which 監視するs prices. But used 乗り物s are still comparatively pricey: 売買業者s are 支払う/賃金ing almost 70% more for them than in June 2019, before the pandemic began. The 普通の/平均(する) 名簿(に載せる)/表(にあげる) price 申し込む/申し出d by 売買業者s to 消費者s was $28,850 last month.

Alex Yurchenko, 長,指導者 data officer for 黒人/ボイコット 調書をとる/予約する, said he 推定する/予想するs prices paid by 消費者s to keep 落ちるing through year's end, 与える/捧げるing to 拒絶する/低下するing インフレーション. But they aren't 推定する/予想するd to 減少(する) 劇的な. Typically, prices 落ちる in the second half of the year, then rise in the spring as the car-buying season begins.

"We 推定する/予想する a re turn to some 肉親,親類d of normality," Yurchenko said.

供給(する)s of new 乗り物s are rising, and prices are dropping わずかに. As a 全世界の 不足 of computer 半導体素子s 病弱なs, 自動車製造業者s have 加速するd 生産/産物. New-乗り物 prices 頂点(に達する)d in December but fell 3% to $45,978 last month, によれば 見積(る)s from J.D. 力/強力にする.

And 賃貸しの costs, a 抱擁する driver of インフレーション, are 推定する/予想するd to keep 拒絶する/低下するing, as 建設業者s continue to 完全にする the most new apartment 部隊s in 10年間s. Rising 住宅 costs have driven more than two-thirds of the 増加する in 核心 インフレーション in the past year, the 政府 said, so as that 増加する fade it should 刻々と lower 全体にわたる インフレーション.

Prices first spiked two years ago as 消費者s ramped up their spending on items like 演習 bikes, standing desks and new patio furniture, 燃料d by three 一連の会議、交渉/完成するs of 刺激 checks. The jump in 消費者 需要・要求する 圧倒するd 供給(する) chains and 点火(する)d インフレーション.

Many 経済学者s have 示唆するd that 大統領 Joe Biden´s 刺激 一括 in March 2021 強めるd the インフレーション 殺到する. At the same time, though, インフレーション also jumped overseas, even in countries where much いっそう少なく 刺激 was put in place.

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AP 自動車 Writer Tom Krisher 与える/捧げるd to this 報告(する)/憶測 from Detroit.

File - Used Mini vehicles are displayed at a dealership Friday, April 14, 2023, in Highlands Ranch, Colo. Over the past 12 months, gas prices have dropped, grocery costs have risen more slowly and used cars have become less expensive.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

とじ込み/提出する - Used 小型の 乗り物s are 陳列する,発揮するd at a dealership Friday, April 14, 2023, in Highlands Ranch, Colo. Over the past 12 months, gas prices have dropped, grocery costs have risen more slowly and used cars have become いっそう少なく expensive.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski, とじ込み/提出する)

A motorist pumps fuel at a Shell station Wednesday, July 5, 2023, in Englewood, Colo. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reports on U.S. consumer prices for June. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A 運転者 pumps 燃料 at a 爆撃する 駅/配置する Wednesday, July 5, 2023, in Englewood, Colo. On Wednesday, the Labor Department 報告(する)/憶測s on U.S. 消費者 prices for June. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

File - People travel through Salt Lake City International Airport Friday, June 30, 2023, in Salt Lake City. After two years of painfully high prices, inflation in the United States has reached its lowest point in more than two years - 3% in June compared with a year earlier - thanks in part to easing prices for gasoline, airline fares, used cars and groceries. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

とじ込み/提出する - People travel through Salt Lake City International Airport Friday, June 30, 2023, in Salt Lake City. After two years of painfully high prices, インフレーション in the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs has reached its lowest point in more than two years - 3% in June compared with a year earlie r - thanks in part to 緩和 prices for ガソリン, 航空機による fares, used cars and groceries. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, とじ込み/提出する)

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