Brazil: Divided over wanting ex-leader in office or 刑務所，拘置所
BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) - Half of Brazilians want former 大統領 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to 勝利，勝つ next year's 選挙 and return to the office he 占領するd between 2003 and 2010. The other half wants him in 刑務所，拘置所 for a 汚職 有罪の判決.
Those dueling 感情s now 強調する an important question as （選挙などの）運動をするs begin gearing up ahead of the 2018 選挙: Will da Silva, who is 控訴，上告ing the 有罪の判決, be 許すd to run?
"Whether Lula runs or not makes all the difference in the next 選挙," said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo. "Even if he is 刑務所，拘置所d he won't be out of the race, as whoever he supports could be a 競争の激しい 候補者."
FILE - In this Friday, March 4, 2016, とじ込み／提出する photo, Brazil's former 大統領，／社長 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is surrounded by 支持者s as he leaves the 労働者's Party building in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Half of Brazilians want former 大統領 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to 勝利，勝つ 2018's 選挙 and return to the office he 占領するd between 2003 and 2010. The other half wants him in 刑務所，拘置所. (AP Photo/Nelson Antoine, とじ込み／提出する)
With a lead in all 投票s, the man universally known as Lula is （選挙などの）運動をするing across Brazil while he 控訴，上告s the 有罪の 判決. If it's upheld, he could go to 刑務所，拘置所 and be 閉めだした from running. If it's overturned, da Silva is 直面するing several other 裁判，公判s that could 干渉する with his （選挙などの）運動をする.
にもかかわらず the 後退s, da Silva has seen his 是認 率ing rise since the 有罪の判決, 固く結び付けるing the reality that he will likely be a 軍隊 in the 選挙 one way or the other.
The chairman of a group of three 治安判事s has said that he 推定する／予想するs the 法廷，裁判所 to 支配する on da Silva's 控訴，上告 before next August. The 選挙 is in October.
Da Silva was 罪人／有罪を宣告するd in July by 裁判官 Sergio Moro as part of a sprawling 調査 into kickbacks by construction companies and public 公式の／役人s. Da Silva was 宣告，判決d to 9 1/2 years in 刑務所，拘置所 and 閉めだした from 持つ／拘留するing public office for seven.
But while 候補者s 人物／姿／数字 out how to position themselves depending on da Silva's 合法的な 運命／宿命, there are also questions about whether the former 大統領，／社長's own 労働者s' Party has a 計画（する） B.
"Lula's 立候補 is irreversible," 労働者s' Party chairwoman Gleisi Hoffmann told The Associated 圧力（をかける）.
Ciro Gomes, a former 閣僚 大臣 in da Silva's 政府 and a 大統領の 希望に満ちた himself, 同意しないs.
"The 労働者s' Party will have a 候補者, but it won't be Lula," Gomes said recently at a 会議／協議会 in Sao Paulo.
The 選挙 is Oct. 7, 201 8, with a likely runoff three weeks later if 非，不，無 of the 候補者s 得る more than 50 パーセント of the 投票（する）.
A 調査する by 投票ing 会社／堅い Datafolha says Silva has 30 パーセント support for the first 選挙 一連の会議、交渉／完成する, compared to 20 パーセント for his closest 競争相手, 下院議員 Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who speaks glowingly about the country's 1964-1985 独裁政治.
The 投票 also 示すs da Silva would （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域 every adversary in a runoff, except for a tie with Moro, the 裁判官 who 罪人／有罪を宣告するd him but who has 繰り返して said he will not run にもかかわらず 存在 あられ／賞賛するd by many Brazilians as a hero.
一方／合間, 54 パーセント of the Brazilians 調査するd said they want the former 大統領，／社長 in 刑務所，拘置所.
The 投票 was 行為／行うd Sept. 27-28 after da Silva's 有罪の判決 in the "Car Wash" 調査（する）. Datafolha interviewed 2,772 people and said the 投票 had a 利ざや of error of 2 百分率 points.
全体にわたる, the 投票 said da Silva has become more popular since he was 設立する 有罪の. In July, Datafolha 設立する that he was 拒絶するd by 46 パーセント of 投票者s and would tie with former 閣僚 大臣 Marina Silva in a runoff, compared to 42 パーセント of 投票者s in October who said they would not 支援する the ex-大統領，／社長.
Hoffmann believes 大統領 Michel Temer's dismal 是認 率ing, which has hovered around 3 パーセント in 最近の 投票s, is a 重要な 推論する／理由 why da Silva is 伸び（る）ing strength.
"People look at Temer and think of all the good things Lula did in office. The difference is staggering. And people have noticed how politicized the 調査s against him are," she said.
Another factor 燃料ing da Silva's lead is 分割 の中で 対抗者s who have not coalesced around an "anti-Lula" 候補者.
The 権利-leaning Brazilian Social 僕主主義 Party is torn between two possible 候補者s: Sao Paulo Gov. Geraldo Alckmin, who lost to da Silva in the 2006 大統領の 選挙, and Sao Paulo 市長 Joao Doria. So far, both are 投票ing at いっそう少なく than 10 パーセント.
Da Silva has been 持つ／拘留するing large 決起大会／結集させるs acro ss the country. He 競うs all the 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s against him are 政治上 動機づけるd and 約束s better 経済的な times, a message that resonates with many as Brazil struggles to 現れる from its worst 後退，不況 in １０年間s.
At any moment, however, the higher 法廷，裁判所 決定／判定勝ち（する） on his 控訴，上告 could throw his （選挙などの）運動をする into a tailspin.
Fernando Castelo Branco, 法律 professor at Sao Paulo's PUC University, said da Silva's 立候補 will be 取り消すd if the 有罪の判決 is upheld before 公式の／役人 （選挙などの）運動をするing begins in August.
"If he has already 登録（する）d his 立候補, the 法廷，裁判所 could still 支持する the 有罪の判決 or 追加する to his 刑罰，罰則s and in that 事例／患者 his 立候補 could be annulled," Branco said.
FILE - In this Tuesday, Oct. 3, とじ込み／提出する 2017 photo, Brazil's former 大統領 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks at a 抗議する against the 政府's 計画（する） to 増加する 民営化s, 含むing in the oil 産業, in 前線 of the 明言する／公表する-run oil company Petrobras （警察，軍隊などの）本部 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Half of Brazilians want da Silva to 勝利，勝つ the coming 2018 選挙 and return to the office he 占領するd between 2003 and 2010. The other half wants him in 刑務所，拘置所. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado, とじ込み／提出する)
FILE - In this March 15, 2015 とじ込み／提出する photo, デモ参加者／実演宣伝者s, one dressed as a 囚人 and wearing a mask with the likeness of Brazil's former 大統領 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, joke with 偽の money from a mock 刑務所，拘置所 during a 抗議する 需要・要求するing the 告発 of Brazil's 大統領 Dilma Rousseff in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Half of Brazilians want former 大統領 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to 勝利，勝つ 2018's 選挙 and return to the office he 占領するd between 2003 and 2010. The other half wants him in 刑務所，拘置所. (AP Photo/Andre Penner, とじ込み／提出する)
