貿易（する） war escalation comes at inopportune moment for economy
WASHINGTON (AP) - The escalation of the U.S.-中国 貿易（する） fight comes at a 特に inopportune moment for the 全世界の economy, 脅すing to turn a period of slower growth into 後退，不況.
In the past week, 大統領 Donald Trump has said he will 課す new 税金s on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese 輸入するs. Beijing 答える／応じるd by 停止（させる）ing 購入（する）s of U.S. farm goods and 許すing the value of its 通貨, the yuan, to 落ちる to an 11-year low. Trump, in turn, labeled 中国 a 通貨 manipulator, a step that has little 即座の 影響 but could lead to 未来 関税 引き上げ（る）s.
The 早い-解雇する／砲火／射撃 sequence of events "粉々にするs 信用／信任, 信用 and 期待s," said Sung Won Sohn, an 経済学者 at Loyola Marymount University in California. World 株式市場s 宙返り／暴落するd Monday - the Dow Jones 産業の 普通の／平均（する） lost 767 points or 2.9% - before 回復するing Tuesday. The Dow 回復するd from a 法外な 落ちる Wednesday morning and was 負かす／撃墜する 68 points in afternoon 貿易（する）ing.
The prospects for a 貿易（する） 取引，協定, which appeared 有望な as recently as 中央の-May, have dimmed to 近づく-invisibility.
"They are all moving in the wrong directions," Sohn said. "I don't think the Chinese are looking for a 貿易（する） 取引，協定 during the 現在の 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 of 大統領 Trump. They have decided he is too 予測できない to 交渉する with."
When companies across the world lose 信用／信任 or certainty about 全世界の 貿易（する） 政策s, they tend to 延期する 計画（する）s to 投資する, 拡大する and 雇う. Spread across the 全世界の economy and over time, those 傾向s can 誘発する／引き起こす a 厳しい 経済的な 下降.
A man walks past a money 交流 shop decorated with different banknotes at Central, a 商売／仕事 地区 in Hong Kong, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2019. 中国's yuan fell その上の Tuesday against the U.S. dollar, 燃料ing 恐れるs about 増加するing 全世界の 損失 from Beijing's 貿易（する） war with 大統領 Donald Trump. (AP Photo/肉親，親類 Cheung)
The 貿易（する） 論争 has already had spillover 影響s across the globe. In Germany, Europe's 産業の powerhouse, factory 生産（高） fell in June for the second time in three months, partly because its 輸出（する）s to 中国 have fallen. 中国 is 購入（する）ing いっそう少なく 製造業の 器具／備品 from Germany as its own economy 弱めるs.
And Japan's 輸出（する）s have fallen for seven straight months, partly because Japanese factories ship 電気の 構成要素s and 半導体s to 中国 for 議会 into smartphones and other tech gadgets.
Barely a month ago, Trump and 大統領 Xi Jinping 発表するd a 一時休戦 in their 戦う／戦い over 主張s that Beijing 軍隊s foreign companies to を引き渡す 貿易（する） secrets, 不公平に 補助金を支給するs Chinese companies and engages in cyber-窃盗 of 知識人 所有物／資産／財産.
The 停戦 broke last week when Trump, professing frustr ation that 12 一連の会議、交渉／完成するs of 交渉s had failed to break the 行き詰まり, said he would 課す 関税s Sept. 1 on $300 billion of Chinese 輸入するs that he 以前 left untouched.
Those 義務s would cover mostly 消費者 goods, such as toys, 着せる／賦与するs, and smartphones, 製品s that were 大部分は spared in the Trump 行政's earlier 一連の会議、交渉／完成するs of 関税s. That could raise prices for U.S. 消費者s just in time for holiday shopping.
The world economy hardly needs the 緊張する. The International 通貨の 基金, the World Bank and other 予報官s have all downgraded their 予測（する）s for 全世界の growth this year.
It isn't just the 貿易（する） war. 製造業者s around the world have 許すd their 在庫s to build up and now are slowing 生産／産物 to bring their 備蓄（する）s closer to 顧客 需要・要求する. JPMorgan's 全世界の 製造業の 索引 fell in July for the third straight month to the lowest level since 2012. Moody's 投資家s Service 予報するs that 全世界の 自動車 sales will 減少（する） 3.8% this year.
The prospect that Britain will leave the European Union without a 貿易（する） 取引，協定 - a 危険 that seemed to rise after Boris Johnson became 首相 last month -imperils Europe's 経済的な prospects. And Japan is 準備するing to raise its 消費 税金 in October, which could stifle its economy.
全世界の 貿易（する） 投資 has 冷気／寒がらせるd because of Trump's 決定／判定勝ち（する） to 課す 関税s on foreign steel, アルミ, dishwashers, solar パネル盤s and hundreds of Chinese 輸入するs - and the 報復 those steps have drawn from other countries. Companies are waiting to see whether and how the 論争s work out.
"There are かなりの downside 危険s with an escalation of 保護貿易主義," said Sara Johnson, (n)役員／(a)執行力のある director of 全世界の 経済的なs at the 研究 会社／堅い IHS Markit. "We're 混乱に陥れる／中断させるing 供給（する） chains, and 関税s 最終的に lead to いっそう少なく efficient 全世界の 生産／産物."
Oxford 経済的なs says 商売／仕事 悲観論主義 has risen はっきりと: 56% of the companies it 調査するd from July 12 to Aug. 1 said the 危険 of a shar p 全世界の 減産／沈滞 has risen, up from 32% in the spring.
The tit-for-tat 交流 Monday over 中国's 通貨 brought a new, dangerous element into the mix: the prospect of a 通貨 war.
"We 港／避難所't been on this 地形 since the 1930s," said Joe Brusuelas, 長，指導者 経済学者 at the consultancy RSM.
Trump has made （疑いを）晴らす he wants to see the U.S. dollar 減少（する） against the yuan, the euro and other 通貨s. That's one 推論する／理由 he's 適用するd relentless 圧力 to the 連邦の Reserve to 削減（する） U.S. 利益／興味 率s - a move that tends to 運動 the dollar lower. (The Fed last week 削減（する） its 重要な 利益／興味 率 for first time in a １０年間.)
"The 大統領，／社長 has signaled that he has no problem with a 女性 dollar," said Joe Manimbo, 上級の market 分析家 at Western Union 商売／仕事 解答s. "This is certainly 前例のない in modern times."
Turning a 貿易（する） war into a 通貨 war 転換s the 戦場 to 通貨 markets, where policymakers have much いっそう少なく 支配（する）／統制する.
"通貨 wars take on a life of their own," Brusuelas said.
In the 1997-1998 Asian 財政上の 危機, 仲買人s 捨てるd Asian 通貨s and 配達するd 破滅的な 後退，不況s to Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, where borrowers struggled to 返す U.S. dollar-denominated 貸付金s and left 地元の banks 溺死するing in bad 負債.
Indeed, a dollar-versus-yuan fight is ありそうもない to remain 限定するd to the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and 中国. If other countries see Chinese or U.S. 輸出業者s 伸び（る）ing a 通貨 advantage, they will feel 圧力 to 答える／応じる by 押し進めるing their 通貨s lower, too.
"通貨 wars are 保証（人）d not to stay two-party 事件／事情／状勢s," Brusuelas said.
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AP 経済的なs Writer Christopher Rugaber 与える／捧げるd to this story.
A bank 従業員 counts U.S. dollar banknotes next to stack of 100 Chinese yuan 公式文書，認めるs at a bank 出口 in Hai'an in eastern 中国's Jiangsu 州, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2019. 中国's yuan fell その上の Tuesday against the U.S. dollar, 燃料ing 恐れるs about 増加するing 全世界の 損失 from Beijing's 貿易（する） war with 大統領 Donald Trump. (Chinatopix 経由で AP)
Specialist Lingbo Jiang 作品 on the 床に打ち倒す of the New York 在庫／株 交流, Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2019. U.S. 在庫／株s fell 概して in midday 貿易（する）ing Wednesday as central banks around the world 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s and 増加するd 恐れるs that 全世界の growth is 存在 crimped by the U.S.-中国 貿易（する） war. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
仲買人 John Romolo 作品 on the 床に打ち倒す of the New York 在庫／株 交流, Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2019. U.S. 在庫／株s fell 概して in midday 貿易（する）ing Wednesday as central banks around the world 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s and 増加するd 恐れるs that 全世界の growth is 存在 crimped by the U.S.-中国 貿易（する） war. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
