After ebullient 2019, 塀で囲む Street 警告するs of slower road ahead
NEW YORK (AP) - After a year of nirvana, 投資家s may need to get ready for something a little more normal.
Markets are coming off a fabulous 2019, where 在庫／株s and 社債s around the world climbed in concert. But for the next year - and １０年間, in fact - 塀で囲む Street is telling 投資家s to 始める，決める their 期待s かなり lower.
It's not calling for another 衝突，墜落 like the U.S. 株式市場 苦しむd just over a １０年間 ago. Or for another run like the last 10 years, where the S&P 500 returned more than 13% on an annualized basis. A 伸び（る） いっそう少なく than half of that may be more likely, both for next year and 毎年 for the coming １０年間.
"People need to have a more 現実主義の 期待 of what returns are going to be," said Greg Davis, 長，指導者 投資 officer at 先導. "That means 投資家s who are saving for 退職 or for college education will likely need to 始める，決める aside more, because returns won´t be as generous as what we´ve seen over the last １０年間."
It´s not because 塀で囲む Street sees the U.S. economy 落ちるing into a 後退，不況, at least not in 2020, even though that's been a recurring 恐れる for much of the last １０年間. Much of 塀で囲む Street 推定する／予想するs the economy to chug modestly higher next year.
Instead, it´s a simple 事柄 of math. 在庫／株s and 社債s don't have as much room to rise after their stellar 2019, 分析家s say. Starting points 事柄, and 投資s began this year at a low point after 後退，不況 worries 続けざまに猛撃するd markets in December 2018. U.S. 在庫／株s will start 2020, 一方／合間, の近くに to their highest levels ever.
FILE - In this Nov. 4, 2019, とじ込み／提出する photo 仲買人 Peter Tuchman, 中心, 作品 on the 床に打ち倒す of the New York 在庫／株 交流. Markets are coming off a fabulous 2019, where 在庫／株s, 社債s and other 投資s climbed in concert. But for the next year, and １０年間, in fact, 塀で囲む Street is telling 投資家s to 始める，決める their 期待s かなり lower. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, とじ込み／提出する)
塀で囲む Street has been busy trying to rein in 期待s.
先導 予測（する）s U.S. 在庫／株s will return 3.5% to 5.5% 毎年 over the coming １０年間. Even toward the 最高の，を越す end of that 範囲, it's only half what the market has returned 歴史的に. Foreign 在庫／株s might 申し込む／申し出 a bit more, at 概略で 7.5% 毎年, but U.S. 社債s look 始める，決める to 申し込む／申し出 only 2% or 3% 毎年 over the next １０年間, によれば 先導.
Of course, any 予測 about where 投資s will 結局最後にはーなる is only a guess, no 事柄 how educated. Many on 塀で囲む Street （機の）カム into this year 推定する／予想するing only modest returns given all the worries about 利益／興味 率s and a possible 後退，不況. Now, the S&P 500 is abou t to の近くに out its second-best year of the last two １０年間s.
But for 社債s, the 推論する／理由s for lower 推定する／予想するd returns are 平易な to see. 社債s 支払う／賃金 much いっそう少なく in 利益／興味 than one or 10 years ago. The 10-year 財務省 now has a 産する／生じる of 1.92 %, versus 2.82% a year ago and 3.54 % a １０年間 ago. For 社債s to return more than their 産する／生じるs, 率s will need to 減少（する） even lower.
Some banks along 塀で囲む Street have 比較して healthy 期待s for 在庫／株s in 2020 - but few if any are calling for a repeat of 2019's 殺到する for the S&P 500, which was at 28.9% as of Tuesday's の近くに. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the 索引 ending 2020 at 3,300, which would be a 2.2% rise, for example. Goldman Sachs is more bullish, with a 的 of 3,400, but that would still be いっそう少なく than a fifth of this year's 伸び（る）.
在庫／株s are more expensive than a year ago on a host of different 対策. One of the most 一般的に used is how a 在庫／株's price compares to its 利益（をあげる） over the 先行する year. By that 手段, the S&P 500 is 貿易（する）ing at 21.1 times its 収入s. That's more expensive than at the start of the year, when it was at 16.5, or its 普通の／平均（する） over the last two １０年間s of 17.7, によれば FactSet.
Low 利益／興味 率s should help keep this price-収入s valuation high, 分析家s say. So will a U.S.-中国 貿易（する） 衝突 that's hopefully no longer ramping higher, 分析家s say. The 減らすd 脅し of a 後退，不況 should keep 投資家s willing to 支払う／賃金 比較して high price-収入s 割合s. But the 脅し of 政策 changes in Washington, D.C., could 行為／法令／行動する as a counterweight.
"There is a lot of nervousness around the 選挙s," said Lisa Thompson, 公正，普通株主権 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 at 資本／首都 Group. "The 選挙s could 供給する some 利益／興味ing 適切な時期s for 投資家s, 特に in the first half of the year."
She's the type of 投資家 who sees volatile markets, where prices are swinging higher and lower, as "利益／興味ing 適切な時期s" because she can use them to buy 在庫／株s she likes at lower prices.
大統領 Trump has 勧めるd in lower 税金s and はしけ 規則s for 商売／仕事s, which 投資家s have seen as incontrovertible 勝利，勝つs for 投資s 関わりなく their politics. 民主党員s running to unseat him, 一方／合間, could 逆転する that 勢い and 的 some 産業s in particular, such as health care. That could lead to big swings for 在庫／株s 早期に in 2020 as Democratic 候補者s try to stand out in a winnowing field.
Even if the worst-事例／患者 シナリオ were to come to pass, though, and the economy were to 落ちる into a 後退，不況, many professional 投資家s say they aren't worried about a 衝突，墜落 like 2007-09 where 在庫／株 投資家s lost more than half their 貯金. 投資家s have remained hesitant to 骨折って進む their money into 在庫／株s, even after this １０年間-long run, so 基金 経営者／支配人s say they don't see grossly overvalued markets as there were just over a １０年間 ago.
"When the cycle does end, we don't see 泡s out there like in 2008, 2009," said Saira Malik, 長，率いる of 公正，普通株主権s at Nuveen. "I think people are nervous."
FILE - In this Aug. 7, 2019, とじ込み／提出する photo 仲買人 John Romolo 作品 on the 床に打ち倒す of the New York 在庫／株 交流. Markets are coming off a fabulous 2019, where 在庫／株s, 社債s and other 投資s climbed in concert. But for the next year, and １０年間, in fact, 塀で囲む Street is telling 投資家s to 始める，決める their 期待s かなり lower. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, とじ込み／提出する)
