AP-NORC 投票: GOP more 解雇する/砲火/射撃d up for 2020, 民主党員s anxious

When it comes to the 2020 大統領の 選挙, 民主党員s are nervous 難破させるs and 共和国の/共和党の excitement has grown.

That's によれば a new 投票 by The Associated 圧力(をかける)-NORC 中心 for Public 事件/事情/状勢s 研究 as Americans look ahead to a high-火刑/賭けるs 選挙 that is 10 months away but still very much 最高の,を越す of mind. While emotions could change in the coming months, the findings give 民主党員s one more worry to 追加する to the 名簿(に載せる)/表(にあげる): Will 苦悩 or enthusiasm be a bigger motivator come November?

On the 瀬戸際 of the first 投票(する)s 存在 cast in a 最初の/主要な contest with no (疑いを)晴らす leader, 66% of 民主党員s 報告(する)/憶測 苦悩 about the 選挙, compared with 46% of 共和国の/共和党のs. 民主党員s are also more likely to feel 失望/欲求不満. 共和国の/共和党のs, 一方/合間, are more likely than 民主党員s to 宣言する excitement about the race, and the 株 of enthusiastic 共和国の/共和党のs appears to be rising.

The findings aren't surprising to anyone who's talked to an 決めかねて 民主党員 about the (人が)群がるd 最初の/主要な field. Behind an 激しい 願望(する) to 追い出す 大統領 Donald Trump, 民主党員s often 述べる 深い 不確定 about what sort of 候補者 has the best chance and whether the party will be able to 勝利,勝つ the 投票(する)s. There's also hard 分割 over 政策 and whispers about a contested 条約. It can all feel a bit too much for some.

"I'm anxious and not really in a good way," said James Horinek, 32, a 民主党員 in Lawton, Oklahoma, who 作品 in marketing. "There's 分割 across the board - there's too much on the Democratic 味方する and too little on the 共和国の/共和党の one."

共和国の/共和党のs, 一方/合間, appear to 株 いっそう少なく of that angst, while their party hangs together on 告発, the economy and other major 問題/発行するs on Trump's 協議事項.

FILE - In this Jan. 18, 2020 file photo, a voting drive volunteer sets up a table in Richardson, Texas. Democrats are anxious about the coming presidential election and Republicans are more likely to be excited about it. That's the finding of a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

FILE - In this Jan. 18, 2020 とじ込み/提出する photo, a 投票(する)ing 運動 volunteer 始める,決めるs up a (米)棚上げする/(英)提議する in Richardson, Texas. 民主党員s are anxious about the coming 大統領の 選挙 and 共和国の/共和党のs are more likely to be excited about it. That's the finding of a new 投票 from The Associated 圧力(をかける)-NORC 中心 for Public 事件/事情/状勢s 研究. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

"I am not nervous at all. I think Donald Trump will 勝利,勝つ it in a 地滑り," said Clinton Adams, a 39-year-old custodian in the Florida Panhandle.

The 投票 設立する that 43% of 共和国の/共和党のs say they're excited about the 選挙, up 10 百分率 points from October. 一方/合間, 33% of 民主党員s 報告(する)/憶測d excitement.

About three-4半期/4分の1s of both 民主党員s and 共和国の/共和党のs say they are 高度に 動機づけるd to cast 投票(する)s this year. But that only raises the question of which emotion will be stronger in turning out the 投票(する) around the 利ざやs.

A party usually wants its 投票者s excited rather than anxious, said George Marcus, a polit ical scientist at Williams College who has 熟考する/考慮するd the 役割 of emotion in politics and 投票ing. Marcus 設立する that 投票者s who 報告(する)/憶測 恐れる and 苦悩 are more likely to be 混乱させるd and 分裂(する) their 投票(する).

"It creates the 可能性 for 説得/派閥," Marcus said of 投票者 worry. "If I'm an anxious 民主党員, I may stay home, I may 投票(する) 共和国の/共和党の. ... You want your base to be either really angry at the other 味方する or really enthusiastic."

Still, Marcus 公式文書,認めるd 民主党員s have a long way to go before 選挙 Day. The 選択 of a 指名された人 could 静める jitters and 動かす up excitement for a 候補者. Events could also 転換 GOP 投票者s' 信用/信任.

Anna Greenberg, a Democratic 世論調査員, said the contrast between GOP excitement and Democratic 苦悩 and 失望/欲求不満 is not a surprise.

"In general, 支持者s of the party in 力/強力にする are going to be more 楽観的な and 希望に満ちた, while 支持者s of the party out of 力/強力にする are going to be 失望させるd and angry," Greenberg said.

She also 公式文書,認めるd that 民主党員s have been 強調する/ストレスd since Trump won the White House.

"Since Trump was elected, 民主党員s have been 特に anxious about both the idea of 故意の誤報 and 選挙 干渉,妨害 in 2020 and what could happen in a second Trump 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語," Greenberg said. However, she 追加するd, "there is no 証拠 that 民主党員s are any いっそう少なく enthusiastic about 投票(する)ing in 2020, and the results of the 2018 選挙 would 示唆する that they are 高度に 動機づけるd to 投票(する)."

Indeed, the 投票 示唆するs that the feeling の中で 民主党員s might be a driver: About 9 in 10 anxious 民主党員s say they feel very 動機づけるd to 投票(する) this November, compared with about half of those who are not anxious.

Tim Farrell is one of those 強調する/ストレスd-out 民主党員s who have been worried since Trump won in 2016. The 58-year-old social 労働者 in Watertown, New York, says he's been "ill for the last three years."

He has little 約束 that 投票者s will turn on Trump, but it's the 現在進行中の 告発 裁判,公判 in the 共和国の/共和党の-controll ed 上院 that's raised his 苦悩 about November. "I'm dreading the 推定する/予想するd 結果. He won't be 罪人/有罪を宣告するd. He'll feel he's invulnerable, and he's an idiot with his finger on the button," Farrell said of the 大統領,/社長.

Farrell 推定する/予想するs to 寄付する to whomever the party 指名するs, and indeed, that's one way Democratic 苦悩 may help their party. Eighteen パーセント of anxious 民主党員s say they´ve 寄付するd, compared with 5% of those who are not anxious.

Still, the 強調する/ストレス doesn't feel good to Kathy Tuggle, a retired 行政の assistant in Richmond, Indiana. She also dreads the 関わりあい/含蓄s of a Trump 無罪放免 - that the 大統領,/社長 can 新採用する other countries to help his reelection - and worries about relaxed 基準s for truth in political 広告s on Facebook.

"I'm just not sure we can have a fair 選挙 権利 now," the 65-year-old 民主党員 said. "That's probably my biggest 苦悩 権利 now."

Domingo Rodriguez thinks these worries are ridiculous. The 75-year-old retired 翻訳家 lives in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, and, though he's not (v)提携させる(n)支部,加入者d with either party, supports Trump. "I think Trump will 勝利,勝つ again. I'm not nervous," Rodriguez said, chuckling as he thought about 民主党員s' 見解(をとる) of the 選挙.

"They're 絶対 anxious. For them it's a 事柄 of life and death," said Rodriguez, who emigrated from Uruguay 10年間s ago. Not for him, though. "I know I'm going to be living and 存在するing and 存在 in the 広大な/多数の/重要な 部隊d 明言する/公表するs even if the 民主党員s 勝利,勝つ."

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The AP-NORC 投票 of 1,353 adults was 行為/行うd Jan. 16-21 using a 見本 drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak パネル盤, which is designed to be 代表者/国会議員 of the U.S. 全住民. The 利ざや of 見本ing error for all 回答者/被告s is 加える or minus 3.6 百分率 points. 回答者/被告s were first selected 無作為に using 演説(する)/住所-based 見本ing methods and later were interviewed online or by phone.

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This 訂正するs the (一定の)期間ing of Anna Greenberg's 指名する.

Online:

AP-NORC Ce nter: http://www.apnorc.org/

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Catch up on the 2020 選挙運動 with AP 専門家s on our 週刊誌 politics podcast, "Ground Game."

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