AP 分析: Why Trump's 選挙 延期する tweet 事柄s

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WASHINGTON (AP) - 大統領 Donald Trump´s pattern is now familiar: He makes a 素晴らしい 主張, on Twitter or impromptu. The 長，率いる scratching begins.

Was he serious? Was he trying to distract from other 消極的な news?

同盟（する）s are left to shrug their shoulders and 小衝突 off his 発言／述べるs. Some 定期的に （人命などを）奪う，主張する to have not read or heard them.

A public numbness 始める，決めるs in, to the point that even Trump´s most ardent political 対抗者s have difficulty 召喚するing 乱暴／暴力を加える.

But this week the 大統領，／社長 申し込む／申し出d a 声明 that stood out, even の中で many that have put Trump´s branding アイロンをかける on the office.

His standing with the public flagging まっただ中に myriad crises, Trump floated on Twitter the prospect of 延期するing the Nov. 3 選挙 - a suggestion more in line with autocrats who try to quash the public´s ability to 投票（する） than with the 長，率いる of the world´s 主要な 僕主主義.

It was a tweet that 事柄d, and couldn´t be ignored, even by many 共和国の／共和党のs who have long given Trump a pass.

It 事柄d because it 量d to a 素晴らしい attack on the underpinnings of American 僕主主義 - on the notion that a nation that has held 解放する／自由な and fair 選挙s in the 中央 of wars, pandemics and the 広大な／多数の／重要な 不景気 might not be 有能な of doing so when it´s Trump´s political career that is on the line.

"Most 大統領，／社長s have leaned very hard in the other direction, even when times were tougher than now," said William Galston, a 上級の fellow in governance 熟考する／考慮するs at the Brookings 会・原則.

Indeed, Abraham Lincoln 圧力（をかける）d for an 選挙 in 1864 when the Civil War was 激怒（する）ing and his prospects for victory looked 荒涼とした, though he 最終的に 利益d in part by making it easier for 兵士s in the field to 投票（する）. An 選挙 was also held on time in 1944, with 現職の Franklin D. Roosevelt （人命などを）奪う，主張するing victory in the 中央 of World War II.

But Trump does not appear to have the same attachment to the tenets of American 僕主主義 as his 前任者s. He has 繰り返して put 強調する／ストレス on the nation´s 会・原則s, 誘発するing an obstruction of 司法（官） 調査 by special counsel Robert Mueller and 告発 by the 衆議院 for 捜し出すing a foreign 政府´s help in digging up dirt on Joe Biden, now his Democratic 対抗者 in the November 選挙.

In 2020, Trump has 積極性 turned his attention to the 選挙（人）の 過程 that will 決定する his political 運命／宿命. He´s 繰り返して raised unfounded 告訴，告発s of 詐欺, 特に 関係のある to the uptick in mail-in 投票（する）ing that is 推定する／予想するd because of safety 恐れるs during the COVID-19 pandemic. He´s also 辞退するd to say whether he would 受託する the 結果 of the 選挙, 説 it's too soon to give an ironclad 保証（人）.

Trump made 類似の 声明s as a 候補者 in 2016, and has also flirted with 選挙 fra ud 共謀 theories as a 私的な 国民. The 恐れる の中で 民主党員s and many 選挙s 専門家s in 2020, however, has been that Trump would （権力などを）行使する the 力／強力にする of his office to 影響する／感情 the 結果 of the 選挙 or Americans´ ability to 投票（する） - 特に if he thought he might be 長，率いるd for 敗北・負かす.

The 大統領，／社長 appeared to 実証する those 恐れるs this week. He tweeted that "全世界の／万国共通の Mail-In 投票（する）ing" - something that has not been 提案するd - would lead to "the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT 選挙 in history."

"延期する the 選挙 until people can 適切に, securely and 安全に 投票（する）???" he wrote.

Trump 拡大するd his 選挙 attacks later in the day, 説 he didn´t want to move 今後 with the 投票（する） unless the results are known the same day. Because of the 推定する／予想するd 増加する of mail-in 投票（する）s, which take longer to count, it´s likely that the results may not be known for days, 特に if the contest between Trump and Biden is の近くに.

With the 選挙 いっそう少なく than 100 days away, both 国家の and battleground 明言する／公表する 投票s show Trump 追跡するing Biden and losing support from Americans on his 扱うing of the pandemic and other major 問題／発行するs.

In reality, Trump doesn´t have the ability to 延期する the 選挙 on his own. Changing the date would 要求する 是認 from 議会 - something 共和国の／共和党の 国会議員s made （疑いを）晴らす they would not support.

"Never in the history of the country, through wars and 不景気s and the Civil War, have we ever not had a federally scheduled 選挙 on time, and we´ll find a way to do that again this November 3," said 上院 大多数 Leader Mitch McConnell, a stalwart Trump 同盟（する）.

The best-事例／患者 シナリオ, によれば some 観察者／傍聴者s, is that Trump´s broadsides against the 選挙（人）の 過程 are 簡単に a way for him to explain away a possible loss.

"The 希望に満ちた シナリオ is that Trump is just laying the 基礎 for a `sore loser´ （選挙などの）運動をする afterward where he won´t use 合法的な 機械装置s to challenge the 選挙, but he will tell himself and his 支持者s that he was robbed and become a 肉親，親類d of a 永久の irritant in the political system," Galston said.

Still, many 民主党員s cast Trump´s tweet as a 警告 発射 and a signal of what the 大統領，／社長 may be willing to do if it appears likely he will lose in November.

"This has got to be a wake-up call," said Biden, whose （選挙などの）運動をする has 組み立てる／集結するd a team of 600 lawyers and 観察者／傍聴者s who are 割り当てるd to 保護（する）／緊急輸入制限 the 正直さ of the 選挙 in every 明言する／公表する.

Events on the other 味方する of the world 申し込む／申し出d a cautionary tale.

The day after Trump floated a 延期する in the U.S. 選挙, Hong Kong´s 政府 発表するd that it would 延期する September 法律を制定する 選挙s for a year. The 政府 非難するd the coronavirus pandemic, but the move was seen as a way to sideline プロの／賛成の-僕主主義 政治家，政治屋s 捜し出すing to 押し進める 支援する on 激しい-handedness by Beijing.

The White House 非難するd the move.

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Associated 圧力（をかける） writer Will Weissert in Washington 与える／捧げるd to this 報告（する）／憶測.

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Editor´s 公式文書，認める: Julie Pace has covered the White House and politics for AP since 2007. Follow her at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC