政府 警告するd of 規模 of 誤った 肯定的なs in 集まり coronavirus 実験(する)ing 計画(する)

Hundreds of thousands of people could be unnecessarily told to 孤立する under the 政府’s ambitious 集まり coronavirus 実験(する)ing 提案s, a 主要な statistician has 警告するd, as a 閣僚 大臣 認める the 科学(工学)技術 for the 計画(する) does not yet 存在する.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said the “抱擁する danger” with Boris Johnson’s “操作/手術 Moonshot” 事業/計画(する) ? which would see millions of UK-wide 実験(する)s carried out daily ? was that there would be a “very large number of 誤った 肯定的なs”.

His 警告 (機の)カム as 輸送(する) 長官 認める Shapps said that while the 政府 was hoping to develop a Covid-19 実験(する) that 供給するd a result in between 20 and 90 minutes, there “isn’t a certified 実験(する) in the world that does this”.

The 総理大臣 told a 負かす/撃墜するing Street 圧力(をかける) 会議/協議会 on Wednesday that the 計画/陰謀 could help sport and entertainment 発生地s 再開する fully and 許す people to socially mix in large groups again with on-the-day 実験(する)s.

漏れるd 文書s seen by the BMJ 医療の 定期刊行物 示唆するd the 事業/計画(する) could have a price tag of £100 billion ? の近くに to that of the £114 billion 予算 given to NHS England in 2018/19.

Prof Spiegelhalter told BBC 無線で通信する 4’s Today programme that statisticians were “banging their 長,率いるs on the 塀で囲む” at the 提案.

“集まり 審査 always seems like a good idea in any 病気 ? ‘Oh yes, let’s 実験(する) everybody’. But the 抱擁する danger is 誤った 肯定的なs ? no 実験(する)s are perfect, it is not a simple yes/no thing.”

He said the threshold would have to be 始める,決める to a level that would “選ぶ up anything that hints at 存在 感染性の”, meaning that the 実験(する)s would “always 生成する a very large number of 誤った 肯定的なs”.

“That doesn’t 事柄 so much perhaps if you’re just 存在 stopped going into a theatre ? the point is it is not just a 事柄 of 実験(する)ing.

“You’ve got this whole 石油精製 商売/仕事 that that person will be told to 孤立する, their 接触するs will b e told to 孤立する, and so on.

“And if you only have 1% 誤った 肯定的なs の中で all the people who are not 感染性の, and you’re 実験(する)ing the whole country, that’s 600,000 people unnecessarily labelled as 肯定的なs.”

Earlier Mr Shapps told Sky News: “This is 科学(工学)技術 that, to be perfectly blunt, 要求するs その上の 開発 ? there isn’t a certified 実験(する) in the world that does this but there are people that are working on 原型s.”

However 副 長,指導者 医療の officer Dr Jenny Harries said the 科学(工学)技術 is likely to be 利用できる in weeks to months.

Mr Shapps also said it would be wrong to give younger age groups greater freedom than the 年輩の under the new 支配するs after その上の 制限s were 輪郭(を描く)d に引き続いて a spike in 事例/患者s の中で young people.

Speaking to Sky News, he said: “I think it would be やめる wrong as a society to say we will let (Covid-19) run はびこる within part of the 全住民 ? not least because that 全住民 can get やめる 本気で ill and it can last for やめる a long time ? and everybody else has to hide away like hermits.

“I don’t think that would be the 権利 way to run a society.”

The 総理大臣 said on Wednesday that he hoped “we could be able to get some 面s of our lives 支援する to normal by Christmas” and pointed to 集まり 実験(する)ing as something which could help society open 支援する up その上の.

For now, however, Mr Johnson 勧めるd people to 限界 their social 接触する “as much as possible” as he 確認するd that social 集会s of more than six people will be 無法者d in England from Monday.

一方/合間 Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling led to the 決定/判定勝ち(する) to 課す the lockdown in March, said people should “hesitate” at the “headlong 急ぐ to get everybody 支援する into offices” まっただ中に the rising 事例/患者s.

“The 事例/患者 number 増加するs we’ve seen in the last two weeks do not yet account for the 再開するing of schools. So undoubtedly that may 増加する 伝達/伝染 still その上の and there may be a need th erefore to 減ずる 接触するs in other settings,” he told Today.

Prof Ferguson said he was still working from home, and 警告を与えるd: “Certainly I think we should hesitate and maybe pause at the headlong 急ぐ to get everybody 支援する into offices.

“But some people have to work and I 完全に understand the 関心s in many 4半期/4分の1s that everybody working at home has an 経済的な 衝撃, 特に on city centres.”

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