U.S. 財務省s 産する／生じる curve flashes red to 投資家s
By Megan Davies and Ira Iosebashvili
NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. 財務省 産する／生じる curve is flashing a 警告 調印する to 塀で囲む Street, where many are worried that a 後退，不況 could be in 蓄える／店 after 社債 投資家s 押し進めるd up short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 率s to the point where 産する／生じるs on the 2-year 財務省 were 現実に higher than the 10-year 財務省.
Such a 現象, called a "産する／生じる curve inversion," is a 重要な metric that 投資家s watch as 社債 産する／生じるs 衝撃 other 資産 prices, 料金d through to banks' returns and have been an 指示する人（物） of how the economy will fare. Aside from signals it may flash on the economy, the 形態／調整 of the 産する／生じる curve has ramifications for 消費者s and 商売／仕事.
On Tuesday, one of the most closely-watched parts of the curve, the two-year to 10-year curve, inverted, sending a 警告 調印する for 投資家s that a 後退，不況 could follow. The last time it inverted was 2019 and the に引き続いて year, the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs entered a 後退，不況 - albeit one 原因（となる）d by the 全世界の pandemic.
"A lot of people 焦点（を合わせる） on this and there could be a self-実行するing 期待, they see the 10 year/2 year invert and believe there will be a 後退，不況 and change 行為," said Campbell Harvey, Professor of 財政／金融 at the Fuqua School of 商売／仕事, Duke University, who 開拓するd using the 産する／生じる curve as a predictive 道具 for 後退，不況s. "So if you're a company you 削減（する） 支援する capex and 雇用 計画（する）s."
Harvey, who 焦点（を合わせる）d his 研究 on a different part of the 産する／生じる curve, 追加するd that 存在 用意が出来ている for a 後退，不況 was "not a bad thing... so when it occurs you 生き残る."
仲買人-売買業者 LPL 財政上の said the 2/10 inversion is "a powerful 指示する人（物）" pointing out that it predating all six 後退，不況s since 1978, with just one 誤った 肯定的な.
"There is a 推論する／理由 this 指示する人（物） is so 広範囲にわたって followed," those 分析家s said.
While 投資家s 警告を与える that the 産する／生じる curve is just one 指示する人（物） の中で many to look for when 予報するing re cession, the curve has become a classically followed signal.
"There is definitely a psychological element to it," said Gennadiy Goldberg, 上級の 率s strategist at TD 安全s. "The 産する／生じる curve has worked in the past because it has been a signal that the end of the cycle is coming."
CLOSELY FOLLOWED
産する／生じるs of short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 U.S. 政府 負債 have been rising quickly, 反映するing 期待s of a 一連の 率 引き上げ（る）s by the U.S. 連邦の Reserve, while longer-時代遅れの 政府 社債 産する／生じるs have moved at a slower pace まっただ中に 関心s 政策 強化するing may 傷つける the economy.
As a result, the 形態／調整 of the 財務省 産する／生じる curve has been 一般に flattening and in some 事例／患者s inverting.
Not everyone is 納得させるd the curve is telling the whole story. Some say the Fed's 社債 buying program of the last two years has inflated the price of 10-year 財務省s, keeping the 産する／生じる artificially low. They say the 産する／生じる is bound to rise when the central bank starts 縮むing its balance sheet, steepening the curve.
Clouding the picture その上の is that different parts of the 産する／生じる curve have been signaling different 調印するs.
While 財政上の markets see the two-year 産する／生じる as a good proxy for Fed 政策 and closely follow the 2/10 part of the curve, many academic papers 好意 the spread between the 産する／生じる on three-month 財務省 法案s and 10-year 公式文書，認めるs. This 産する／生じる curve has not 示すd 後退，不況.
Eric Winograd, 上級の 経済学者, AllianceBernstein said discussion of the 産する／生じる curve inversion was "overheated."
"I understand the narrative and I think from a 危険-taking 視野 there is good 証拠 that a flat or inverted 産する／生じる curve is a challenge for broader 危険 資産s but I am not going to worry more about a 後退，不況 if the 産する／生じる curve inverts by 5 basis points or doesn´t," Winograd said.
投資家s may be more dismissive of an inversion this time around, as the Fed remains very 早期に in the 引き上げ（る）ing cycle, with time to pull 緩和する off the ブレーキs if the economy appea rs to be slipping into a 下降, TD's Goldberg said.
研究員s at the Fed, 一方／合間, put out a paper https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/公式文書，認めるs/feds-公式文書，認めるs/dont-恐れる-the-産する／生じる-curve-reprise-20220325.htm on March 25 that 示唆するd the predictive 力／強力にする of the spreads between 2- and 10-year 財務省s to signal a coming 後退，不況 is "probably spurious," and 示唆するd a better 先触れ（する） of a coming 経済的な 減産／沈滞 is the spread of 財務省s with 成熟s of いっそう少なく than 2 years.
Still, for some, the 傾向 is not to be ignored.
"I´ve had a lot of questions about whether this time is different because of QE and other 推論する／理由s keeping the 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 賞与金 artificially flat, and thus 減ずるing the 後退，不況 signaling 所有物／資産／財産s of 2s10s and other 産する／生じる curve 対策," wrote Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.
"However, for me I think about it very 異なって. I don´t care why the curve inverts as I think the 伝達／伝染 機械装置 is through animal spirits."
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, 吊りくさび Krauskopf and David Randall; 令状ing by Megan Davies; Editing by David Gregorio)
