India's high 政策 率s, 女性 rupee could 回復する 外部の balances -HSBC 経済学者
MUMBAI, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's 率 強化するing と一緒に a 女性 rupee could be the "optimal" 政策 返答 to 回復する the country's 外部の balances, HSBC 安全s said in a 公式文書，認める on Friday.
"While the 打点 started 引き上げ（る）ing 率s in May 2022, it was only in September that it moved to a two-pronged 戦略 of higher 率s and a 女性 rupee," said Pranjul Bhandari, 長，指導者 経済学者 of at HSBC 安全s and 資本／首都 Markets (India).
"As such, we think India is now giving the optimal 政策 返答. The challenge will be to continue on this path."
After remaining 比較して stable for a couple of months, the rupee 弱めるd 3.6% against the dollar since 早期に September.
Earlier this week, the South Asian 通貨 dropped to a 記録，記録的な／記録する low of 82.6825 to the dollar. The central bank, however, has been frequently 介入するing to 抑制（する） the rupee's volatility.
許すing the rupee to depreciate will make India's 輸出（する）s more 競争の激しい, which would support 経済成長, Bhandari said.
"By 同時に making 輸出（する）s 競争の激しい and 輸入するs expensive, FX 価値低下 can lower the 貿易（する） 赤字."
India in September 報告（する）／憶測d a 貿易（する） 赤字 of $26.7 billion. For the July-Sept period, the 貿易（する） 赤字 was about $85 billion, wider than $71 billion a ４半期/4分の1 ago.
On the 率s defence to 演説（する）／住所 the 外部の balance, Bhandari said the 増加する in 政策 率 will help 演説（する）／住所 India's 経常収支 赤字, which is the difference between the 投資 and the 貯金 率.
India's 経常収支 赤字 stood at $23.90 billion in the first ４半期/4分の1 of 会計年度 2022/23 or 2.8% of the GDP. As a 百分率 of GDP, i t is the highest 赤字 since Sep 2018.
政策 率 引き上げ（る）s can help raise 私的な 部門 saving by discouraging borrowing and incentivising 財政上の saving, Bhandari said.
To the extent that 率 引き上げ（る）s slow growth, the 女性 rupee could help 上げる the GDP, she said.
She 推定する／予想するs the 打点 to 配達する its fourth 50 basis points repo 率 引き上げ（る） in December, taking the repo 率 to 6.4%.
The 打点 has raised repo 率 by 190 bps since May to bring 負かす／撃墜する インフレーション that has stayed above its 寛容 禁止（する）d for three ４半期/4分の1s.
"The 即座の challenge is to lower the 経常収支 赤字 from an 推定する／予想するd 5% of GDP in September 2022, to about 2.5%, which we 見解（をとる） as 維持できる going 今後." (報告（する）／憶測ing by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Neha Arora)
