Strong U.S. 職業s, 給料 growth 推定する／予想するd in December
Nonfarm payrolls 予測（する） 増加するing 200,000 in December
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失業率 seen 不変の at 3.7%
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普通の／平均（する） hourly 収入s 予測（する） 伸び（る）ing 0.4%; up 5.0% y/y
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely 持続するd a solid pace of 職業 and 行う growth in December, but rising borrowing costs as the 連邦の Reserve fights インフレーション could slow labor market 勢い 意味ありげに by 中央の-year.
The Labor Department's closely watched 雇用 報告（する）／憶測 on Friday is also 推定する／予想するd to show the 失業率 不変の at 3.7% last month. The labor market has remained strong since the Fed 乗る，着手するd last March on its fastest 利益／興味 率-引き上げ（る）ing since the 1980s.
率-極度の慎重さを要する 産業s like 住宅 and 財政／金融, 同様に as 科学（工学）技術 companies, 含むing Twitter, アマゾン and Facebook parent Meta have 削除するd 職業s, yet 航空機によるs, hotels, restaurants and 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業s are desperate for 労働者s as the leisure and 歓待 産業s continue to 回復する from the pandemic.
Labor market resilience has underpinned the economy by 支えるing 消費者 spending, but could 誘発する the Fed to 解除する its 的 利益／興味 率 above the 5.1% 頂点（に達する） the U.S. central bank 事業／計画（する）d last month and keep it there for a while.
"All 指示，表示する物s are that the labor market remains strong," said Sung Won Sohn, a 財政／金融 and 経済的なs professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. "Leisure and 歓待 雇用者s are not able to get anybody even after 給料 have been going up. That pattern has and will continue for a while, so that's where the rubber 攻撃する，衝突するs the road."
The 調査する of 商売／仕事 設立s is likely to show that nonfarm payrolls 増加するd by 200,000 職業s last month after rising 263,000 in November, によれば a Reuters 投票 of 経済学者s. That would be the smallest 伸び（る） in two years.
However, 職業 growth would far 越える the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age 全住民, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 範囲 that 経済学者s associate with tight labor markets.
見積（る）s 範囲d from as low as 130,000 to as high as the 350,000 予報するd by TD 安全s.
Data from payroll scheduling and 跡をつけるing company Homebase showed 雇用者s held on to 労働者s in December, which 示唆するd a smaller-than-normal 減少（する） in not 季節的に adjusted (NSA) 条件.
SEASONAL BOOST
"This means that the seasonal factor, which should be adjusting over a 加える 200,000 NSA 拒絶する／低下する, would be 追加するing over a stronger than 推定する／予想するd 人物／姿／数字," said TD 安全s 大型の strategist Oscar Munoz. "The seasonal 調整 has 追加するd around 430,000 職業s, on 普通の／平均（する）, over the last five Decembers."
An 現在進行中の strike by 36,000 teachers in California is seen depressing 政府 payrolls. The 政府 will 改訂する the 季節的に adjusted data for the 世帯 調査する, from which the 失業率 is derived, for the last five years.
世帯 雇用 減少（する）d in October and November, 主要な some 経済学者s to 推測する that 全体にわたる 職業 growth was overstated. Some Fed 公式の／役人s have also latched on to the 相違 between the two 対策.
Yet the 世帯 調査する tends to be volatile and most 経済学者s 推定する／予想する 世帯 雇用 would be 改訂するd toward nonfarm payrolls.
"Whenever 傾向s in 世帯 雇用 have diverged from payroll 雇用, 是正s have tended to come throu gh 世帯 雇用 訂正するing に向かって now-stronger payrolls," said Veronica Clark, an 経済学者 at Citigroup in New York. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger 回復する in 世帯 雇用 in December or over the coming months."
Little 衝撃 is seen on the 失業率 from the 改正 to the 世帯 data. 普通の／平均（する） hourly 収入s are 推定する／予想するd to have risen by 0.4% after 殺到するing 0.6% in November. That would lower the year-on-year 増加する in 給料 to 5.0% from 5.1% in November.
Strong 行う growth is likely to 固執する in January as several 明言する／公表するs raise their 最小限 行う and most 労働者s across the country get cost of living 調整s. There were 10.458 million 職業 開始s at the end of November, which translated to 1.74 職業s for every 失業した person.
But the 傾向 in 雇用 growth could slow 意味ありげに by 中央の-year. The Fed last year raised its 政策 率 by 425 basis points from 近づく 無 to a 4.25%-4.50% 範囲, the highest since late 2007. Last month, it 事業／計画（する）d at least an 付加 75 basis points of 引き上げ（る）s in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.
信用／信任 の中で 長，指導者 (n)役員／(a)執行力のある officers is at its lowest level since the 広大な／多数の／重要な 後退，不況, によれば a 最近の 調査する from the 会議／協議会 Board.
"If they think 需要・要求する is 弱めるing and 歳入s are going to slow, they're probably going to feel 圧力 to 削減（する） costs to 持続する profitability," said James Knightley, 長，指導者 international 経済学者 at ING in New York. "That does 示唆する that the pace of 雇用 growth is likely to slow やめる quickly through this year, and we could in fact, start to see some 職業 losses in the middle of the year." (報告（する）／憶測ing by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by David Gregorio)
