Euro zone インフレーション 落ちるs はっきりと in Dec but 申し込む/申し出s ECB little 一時的休止,執行延期

FRANKFURT, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone インフレーション 宙返り/暴落するd by more than 推定する/予想するd last month but underlying price 圧力s rose, making it likely the European Central Bank will continue raising 利益/興味 率s for months to come.

消費者 price growth in the 圏 that 拡大するd to 20 nations when Croatia joined on Jan. 1, slowed to 9.2% in December from 10.1% a month earlier, below 予測(する) for 9.7% in a Reuters 投票, data from Eurostat showed on Friday.

But this seemingly good news masked a more malignant 傾向 as the biggest chunk of the 拒絶する/低下する (機の)カム from lower energy prices while all 重要な 構成要素s of 核心 インフレーション 加速するd.

インフレーション 除外するing volatile food and energy prices 選ぶd up to 6.9% from 6.6% while an even narrower 手段 that also 除外するs alcohol and タバコ prices rose to 5.2% from 5%.

Services and 非,不,無-energy 産業の goods インフレーション, both watched closely by the ECB to 計器 the durability of price growth, 加速するd, 追加するing to 関心s that price growth is more stubborn than 恐れるd.

Another worry is that headline インフレーション may have dipped on a host of one-off or 一時的な 対策, 含むing 政府 補助金s, and some of this could be 逆転するd in January, when インフレーション could 加速する once again.

But even if price volatility is 始める,決める to be high over the coming months, インフレーション has likely 頂点(に達する)d and the real 問題/発行する is just how quickly it will 落ちる 支援する に向かって the ECB's 2% 的.

The problem is that the longer price growth stays high, the more difficult it will be to tame it as 会社/堅いs start adapting their pricing and 行う 政策s, perpetuating インフレーション.

That is why the ECB raised 率s by a 連合させるd 2.5 百分率 points last year - mirror ing its 全世界の peers, even if somewhat later - and 約束d big 引き上げ(る)s in both February and March in what is already the most 積極的な 政策 強化するing cycle in its history.

But even so, インフレーション will not return to 2% until the second half of 2025, によれば the ECB's own 発射/推定s, which have proven 過度に 楽観的な over the past two years, 示唆するing that 危険s are skewed に向かって a slower disinflationary 過程.

Markets and 調査するs are both starting to factor in the 可能性 that インフレーション stays above 2% その上の out, partly because a host of outside factors are 構内/化合物ing the ECB's problems.

A winter 後退,不況 that was 推定する/予想するd to 押し進める up 失業 was supposed to eat 深い into price 圧力s. But the 下降 is 証明するing more benign than 予測(する) and 雇用, already at a 記録,記録的な/記録する high, is 現実に going up, not 負かす/撃墜する.

会計の support for 世帯s is also 証明するing more generous than hoped and this 過度の spending is 追加するing to 購入(する)ing 力/強力にする, 反対するing the ECB's 制限する 政策s. (報告(する)/憶測ing by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Catherine Evans)

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