EXPLAINER-Why the U.S.-Mexico energy spat is a 堅い nut to 割れ目
By Isabel Woodford
MEXICO CITY, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The leaders of the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, Canada and Mexico are 予定 to 持つ／拘留する a 首脳会議 next week, where a major bone of 論争 could be a 論争 中心ing on whether Mexico 違反d a 貿易（する） 協定／条約 by 強化するing 明言する／公表する 支配（する）／統制する of its energy market.
WHERE DOES THE DISPUTE STAND?
緊張s over Mexico's 国家主義者 政策s boiled over into a formal 論争 in July, when the Washington and Ottawa とじ込み／提出するd a （民事の）告訴 against Mexico under the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs-Mexico-Canada 協定 (USMCA) 貿易（する） 取引，協定.
The （民事の）告訴 argued Mexican 大統領 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's 成果／努力s to change the market to 好意 明言する／公表する oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and 国家の 力／強力にする 公共事業（料金）／有用性 Comision 連邦の de Electricidad (CFE) had 差別するd against U.S. and Canadian companies.
The companies also complained that bureaucratic 延期するs are stymieing their 操作／手術s.
論争 決意／決議 会談 began, and although 進歩 has been 停止（させる）ing, the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and Canada last year agreed to 延長する the 過程 beyond an 初期の 75-day window.
Under USMCA, if the 論争 is not 解決するd during 協議s, a 論争 パネル盤 can be called to adjudicate.
WHAT IS MEXICO'S DEFENSE?
Lopez Obrador has put on a bullish 前線, 説 Mexico has broken no 法律s and that "nothing is going to happen."
It comes after he 精密検査するd the electricity market in the 指名する of 国家の 主権，独立, giving CFE 優先 over 私的な companies in connecting 力／強力にする 駅／配置するs to the grid.
Often couching his 対立 to foreign and 私的な 参加 in the energy 部門 as part of his 運動 to eradicate 汚職, he argues past 政府s skewed the market in 好意 of 私的な 資本／首都.
He also says that energy is a 国内の 事柄, and points to an article he had 挿入するd into USMCA 規定するing Mexico's "inalienable" 所有権 of its oil and gas. Critics say the article does not cover his 治療 of foreign 会社／堅いs.
CAN MEXICO FIX THE DISPUTE?
Most 分析家s 予報する Mexico would lose if a パネル盤 is asked to 解決する the 論争. That could be very 高くつく／犠牲の大きい to Mexico, raising the prospect of 刑罰の U.S. 関税s.
Both countries have 以前 強調する／ストレスd that they want to sort out the 不一致 before it reaches a パネル盤.
会談 slowed 負かす／撃墜する after Mexico's economy 大臣 辞職するd in October, and her 後継者 （疑いを）晴らすd out several experienced 貿易（する） 交渉者s, leaving an inexperienced team in 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金.
The new teams says it has put 今後 提案s that could を取り引きする two of the four areas of 協議s, and that they are also 演説（する）／住所ing other U.S. 関心s. But there has been little （疑いを）晴らす 指示，表示する物 of meaningful 進歩.
決意／決議 appears to hinge on whether energy 国家主義者s inside the Mexican 行政, who have taken their cues from Lopez Obrador, are 用意が出来ている to 妥協.
WHAT ARE MEXICO'S BARGAINING CHIPS?
Lopez Obrador has made energy 政策 a cornerstone of his 大統領／総裁などの地位, making it hard for him to 支援する 負かす／撃墜する.
His 行政 is also mindful that Mexico's 援助 on 取り組むing 違法な 移民／移住 tends to carry more 負わせる in Washington 予定 to its prominence in U.S. 国内の politics, giving the 政府 tacit, if unstated, てこ入れ／借入資本.
Also, Mexican 産業 is so ひどく 統合するd with the U.S. economy that a 貿易（する） 衝突 could be painful for both countries at a time the 地域 is 試みる／企てるing to 減ずる its 依存 on Asia and bring 負かす／撃墜する 急に上がるing インフレーション.
Still, the spat has 攻撃する，衝突する 投資家 信用／信任 in Mexico, and Lopez Obrador is 捜し出すing U.S. help to 財政／金融 solar 力／強力にする 生産（高） in northern Mexico and attract 投資 in greener 製造業の, 特に in carmaking, a 基幹産業. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Isabel Woodford Editing by Dave Graham and Marguerita Choy)
