日本銀行's 産する／生じる 的ing 抑えるs 憶測 in JGB 未来s
By Junko Fujita
TOKYO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The 日本銀行's 積極的な market 操作／手術s to defend its 政策 禁止（する）d for 産する／生じるs has not only sapped liquidity in the 政府 社債 market but also 徹底的に 限られた／立憲的な 範囲 for 憶測 in 社債 未来s.
Years of 社債 buying by the 日本銀行 under its 産する／生じる-curve-支配（する）／統制する (YCC) 政策 have distorted the Japanese 政府 社債 (JGB) market by artificially 抑えるing parts of the curve and 原因（となる）ing illiquidity as the 日本銀行's 所有権 of （判断の）基準 社債s has ballooned.
That illiquidity has 影響する／感情d the 未来s market, which banks and 投資家s use not only to 推測する on 社債s but also to hedge their 利益／興味 率 危険s.
A surprise 調整 to 日本銀行 政策 in December was supposed to 改善する the 操作／手術 of the market but hardly did so. In that move, the central bank 広げるd the 禁止（する）d in which 10-year 産する／生じるs could move a 50 basis points either 味方する of 無 from 25 basis points.
"The 日本銀行 said it 広げるd the upper end of the 10-year 社債 産する／生じる to 訂正する the market 機能（する）／行事," said Kentaro Hatono, 基金 経営者／支配人 at 資産 管理／経営 One. "But instead, to defend its 0.5% cap it destroyed the market 機能（する）／行事."
The move only 高くする，増すd market 憶測 that the 日本銀行 would その上の 緩和する or abandon its 産する／生じる-支配（する）／統制する 政策, 軍隊ing it to buy even more 社債s to defend its new upper 限界. (For more on how YCC 作品, see)
仲買人s say betting on such 政策 change through 未来s has now become prohibitively expensive.
They cannot profitably short-sell the nearest three-month 未来s 契約, 円熟したing in March, because the 日本銀行 owns most of いわゆる cheapest-to-配達する 社債s that the 未来s 契約 is pegged to. In April, the 日本銀行 beg an buying 制限のない 量s of 10-year 社債s daily and then in June 広げるd that 政策 to the cheapest-to-配達する 社債, of seven years' duration.
By Jan. 31, the 日本銀行 owned 103.1% of the 358th 一連の 10-year 社債s that the March 未来s 契約 is tied to, Keisuke Tsuruta, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley 安全s wrote in a 公式文書，認める to （弁護士の）依頼人s.
In a typical 処理／取引 to bet on higher 産する／生じるs, 仲買人s would sell 未来s, wait for a 落ちる in the 未来s price - which moves inversely to 産する／生じるs - then settle the 契約 at 成熟 by 配達するing physical 社債s or 未来s.
As 投資家s 急ぐd to buy 支援する the March 未来s, the price of that 契約 has risen はっきりと.
That has meant that 相場師s cannot even roll over their March short positions to June without 支払う／賃金ing ひどく.
"We have to buy 支援する March 未来s at an unreasonably high price, and sell June 未来s at an unreasonably low one," said Hatono. "With the spread this wide just for three months, returns from hedging are wiped out."
The spread between 未来s 円熟したing in March and June stood at 1.30 yen on Monday, after 広げるing to much as 2.34 yen on Jan. 23, the biggest gap since Sept. 1999. In 早期に December it was 0.6 yen.
The central bank bought a 記録，記録的な／記録する 23.69 一兆 yen ($182 billion) of 社債s in January through its 完全な 購入（する） 操作／手術s, the 最新の 日本銀行 data shows. Because it also lends those JGBs to banks, and they sell 社債s to other 投資家s who then sell some 支援する to the 日本銀行 for cash, it ends up owning more than 100% of some 社債 問題／発行するs.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Junko Fujita; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Bradley Perrett)
