EXPLAINER-What is at 火刑／賭ける for 投資家s in Nigeria's 選挙?
By Rachel Savage
JOHANNESBURG, Feb 13 (Reuters) - 投票者s in Nigeria go to the 投票s on Feb. 25 and international 投資家s are 慎重に 希望に満ちた that whoever is elected as the next 大統領，／社長 of Africa's largest and most populous economy will be more market-friendly than the 現在の 政府.
While there are also 議会の 選挙s, the 焦点（を合わせる） is on the 大統領／総裁などの地位. With 現職の Muhammadu Buhari not on the 投票（する）, the main 競争相手s are 与党 退役軍人 Bola Tinubu, former 副／悪徳行為 大統領，／社長 Atiku Abubakar, and third party 候補者 Peter Obi.
WHAT ARE MAIN ISSUES FOR INVESTORS?
多重の 交流 率s, 普及した insecurity and low oil 生産／産物 予定 to 大規模な 天然のまま 窃盗 are all problems that worry 投資家s. Another 焦点（を合わせる） is 急に上がるing 燃料 補助金 costs that devour 政府 歳入s and 運動 up 負債.
改革（する） of the foreign 為替市場 is the number one 関心 for international 公正，普通株主権 投資家s, said Steve Pollicino of U.S. 仲買業 Auerbach Grayson, 追加するing that 不確定 over how long it takes to get money out of Nigeria was a big deterrent.
"No 投資家's going to want to buy into a market where you can't sell 在庫／株 and get your money out," he said.
Foreign 投資家s held 16% of 株 on Nigeria's 在庫／株 交流 last year, はっきりと 負かす／撃墜する from 58% in 2014, Nigerian 交流 Group data showed.
除去するing 石油 補助金s, which cost $10 billion in 2022, is also 重要な but a "hard sell", said Babatunde Ojo, frontier 現れるing markets 公正，普通株主権s 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 at Harding Loevner.
"This is the short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 苦痛 you have to take in a long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 game," he said.
Strong and （疑いを）晴らす 規則 is im portant for international oil and gas companies, which are pivoting to cleaner gas, said Amaka Anku, 長，率いる of Eurasia Group's Africa practice.
WHAT ABOUT NIGERIA'S DEBT?
Nigeria's 負債-to-GDP 割合 is low compared to countries with 類似の credit ratings. However, its 負債 servicing 重荷（を負わせる） is の中で the highest globally, によれば ratings 機関 Fitch. In 2022, the 連邦の 政府 spent 96.3% of its 歳入s 支払う／賃金ing 利益／興味, the 国際通貨基金 said recently.
Abubakar 計画（する）s to 捜し出す "負債 forgiveness", while Obi has said creditors will be "engaged for 負債 再編成 and possible 取り消し /forgiveness".
"I believe that he used that word in a very 自由主義の sense that is not the same sense that the markets give to that word," Carlos de Sousa, an 現れるing market 負債 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 at Vontobel, said of Obi's use of the word "再編成".
"If the question is, 'Is Nigeria's 負債 維持できる today?' 絶対 yes, nobody has any 疑問 about that. Is it in a 維持できる path? No it is not," said de Sousa.
The next 大統領，／社長 will need to ramp up 政府 歳入s from a very low base to make 負債 manageable and 供給する 国民s with services, said de Sousa, 公式文書，認めるing that 非，不，無 of the major 候補者s had 誓約（する）d to raise 税金s.
Many 投資家s, however, were 慎重に 楽観的な that Nigeria would see 改良s, whoever 勝利，勝つs on Feb. 25.
"大統領 Buhari has 始める，決める such a low 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業," said de Sousa. "It's really not difficult to do things better."
DO INVESTORS HAVE A PREFERRED CANDIDATE?
Few 投資家s 表明するd a strong preference for who 勝利，勝つs. All three main 候補者s 提案する variations of 類似の 政策s - FX 改革（する）, 燃料 補助金 除去 or 段階-out and 上げるing the economy.
A 平和的な 結果 is 重要な for Nigeria which has 苦しむd 暴力／激しさ around 選挙s in 最近の １０年間s.
If Tinubu 現れるs as the 勝利者, there would likely be "a smoother 移行," said Joe Delvaux, a 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 at Amundi, which 持つ／拘留するs Nigerian 君主 社債s.
A victory for Atiku would probably mean more 不確定 as 力／強力にする 転換s, said Delvaux. Many 分析家s see Atiku as more プロの／賛成の-商売／仕事.
"If you have a 候補者 like Peter Obi coming in, the challenge will be that (the) 機械／機構 isn't there," said Delvaux. "So I cannot 裁判官 what capacity will be there on 実施."
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Rachel Savage, 付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Libby George in London and Rodrigo Campos in New York, Editing by MacDonald Dzirutwe, Karin Strohecker and Christina Fincher)
