INSIGHT-Why 共和国の/共和党の hardliners can afford to say no to U.S. 負債 天井 増加する

By Jason Lange, Gram Slattery and David Morgan

WASHINGTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - House Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 国会議員s taking a hard line against raising the U.S. 政府's $31.4 一兆 負債 天井 rely ひどく on small 寄贈者s to 基金 their (選挙などの)運動をするs, a Reuters 分析 設立する, 保護物,者ing them from 商売/仕事 ロビー 圧力 to 避ける a default.

Members of the House Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会, a 隠しだてする group of at least 37 保守的な 共和国の/共和党のs, got の近くに to 40% of their 選挙資金s from smaller 寄付s during the 2022 選挙 cycle, the 分析 of 財政上の 公表,暴露s 設立する, compared to の近くに to 20% for the 残り/休憩(する) of the party's House members.

That 財政上の independence from 伝統的な 力/強力にする 仲買人s could make it even harder for 共和国の/共和党の (衆議院の)議長 Kevin McCarthy to 持続する 支配(する)/統制する over members of his party in a closely divided House and その上の 複雑にする his 交渉s with Democratic 大統領 Joe Biden over raising the 政府's borrowing 限界.

House Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 members, who want to 縮む the 役割 of 政府, are 需要・要求するing 削減s in 政府 spending. Biden …に反対するs putting 条件s on a 負債 天井 増加する, which is needed to cover 支出s and 税金 削減(する)s already 認可するd by 議会.

"The most 保守的な of us will only support a responsible 調整 of the 負債 天井 if it's …を伴ってd by meaningful and serious 会計の 改革(する)," 代表者/国会議員 Clay Higgins, a Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 member from Louisiana, said in an interview.

Some Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 members leaned 特に hard on small 寄贈者s; U.S. 代表者/国会議員 Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia got の近くに to 70% of her 2022 選挙資金 from people giving $200 or いっそう少なく, Reuters 設立する. Her office did not 答える/応じる to requests for comment.

U.S. 代表者/国会議員 Jim Jordan, who is from Ohio, got の近くに to 60% of his 基金s from small 寄贈者s while 代表者/国会議員 Andy Biggs, who is from Arizona, brought in の近くに to 50%.

"We´ve got - I forget how many hundred-thousand 寄贈者s we have, 正規の/正選手 people all across the country who believe in the values and 原則s that make our country 広大な/多数の/重要な," Jordan said.

Biggs did not 答える/応じる to request for comment.

The Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 members also raised 重要な sums from larger 寄贈者s and 伝統的な political fundraising 委員会s.

Reuters reviewed 義務的な 財政上の 公表,暴露s to the 連邦の 選挙 (売買)手数料,委託(する)/委員会/権限 in which (選挙などの)運動をするs 宣言する 基金ing from 寄贈者s giving $200 or いっそう少なく. The 分析 did not 診察する in 詳細(に述べる) other 基金ing sources such as groups controlled by companies and ロビー organizations, or 独立した・無所属 spending by 最高の PACs.

Unlike other congressional (政党の)幹部会,党集会s, the House Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 doesn't 公表する/暴露する its 会員の地位, a practice that began in 2015. 会員の地位 is by 招待 only which helps keep the group rigidly 保守的な.

Reuters identified at least 37 members of the House Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 by reviewing public 声明s in which they identified themselves as members, or by asking their offices.

Small-dollar fundraising helps 国会議員s buck 圧力 from 伝統的な 力/強力にする 仲買人s and 法人組織の/企業の groups, said Ian Vandewalker, a (選挙などの)運動をする 財政/金融 専門家 at New York University's Brennan 中心.

"The ability to raise money outside those structures means you have freedom to thumb your nose at those structures," Vandewalker said.

Some 強行路線 共和国の/共和党のs outside the group also rely ひどく on small 寄贈者s. 代表者/国会議員 Matt Gaetz of Florida, one of several hardliners who 確認するd they are not mem bers of the (政党の)幹部会,党集会, took in の近くに to 60% of his 選挙資金 from small 寄贈者s. Gaetz's office did not 答える/応じる to a request for comment.

Small-dollar 寄付s - often 法廷,裁判所d 経由で 挑発的な emails and social マスコミ 地位,任命するs - also help 増強する the 強行路線 brands of some 国会議員s.

"A 議論の的になる House member who might have struggled with fundraising 20 years ago is now going to 栄える," said Alex Conant, a 共和国の/共和党の strategist who worked on 共和国の/共和党の U.S. 上院議員 Marco Rubio's 2016 大統領の (選挙などの)運動をする.

Small-寄贈者 fundraising for 民主党員s 同様に as 共和国の/共和党のs has grown 速く over the last 10年間, with (選挙などの)運動をするs using email and social マスコミ 地位,任命するs to solicit 出資/貢献s 全国的な.

Many political 観察者/傍聴者s 賞賛する the 拡大 of small-dollar fundraising for 反対するing the 影響(力) of 深い-pocketed 利益/興味 groups and for 財政/金融ing (選挙などの)運動をするs in many 競争の激しい races.

DEFAULT COULD RISK RECESSION

The 財務省 Department has 警告するd 議会 that 失敗 to raise the 合法的な cap on 連邦の 負債 by 早期に June would 危険 a default in which Washington 中止するd to 支払う/賃金 all its 法案s.

Some 経済学者s 警告する a default would 誘発する/引き起こす a 後退,不況 as the U.S. 政府 行方不明になるd 支払い(額)s on everything from Social 安全 checks for 上級のs to 兵士s' 給料.

The 2011 負債-天井 fight took the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs to the brink of default. 率ing 機関 基準 & Poor stripped the 政府 of its 最高の,を越す-tier credit 率ing. The S&P 500 索引 lost about 15% of its value, によれば a Goldman Sachs' 研究 公式文書,認める.

While McCarthy has 誓約(する)d that the 政府 won't default, the 共和国の/共和党のs' 狭くする 222-212 大多数 has given outsized 力/強力にする to the Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会.

目だつ mem bers of the Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 have so far downplayed 法人組織の/企業の lobbyists' 警告s that brinksmanship over the 負債 天井 could 傷つける the economy.

"What will 損失 the economy is what we've seen the last two years: 記録,記録的な/記録する spending, 記録,記録的な/記録する インフレーション, 記録,記録的な/記録する 負債. We already know that's 損失ing the economy," said Jordan, a 設立するing member of the group.

'I AIN'T LISTENING'

Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 members are の中で the most 保守的な members of 議会, によれば their 投票(する)ing 記録,記録的な/記録するs.

They are also その上の to the 権利 than the Tea Party 共和国の/共和党のs who led the 2011 負債-天井 引き分け, a Reuters 分析 設立する.

The 分析 used a metric developed by political scientists and 広範囲にわたって used in academic 研究 known as DW-指名する, which uses congressional 投票(する)ing 記録,記録的な/記録するs to 得点する/非難する/20 国会議員s on a 規模 from least to most 保守的な.

Yet some 法人組織の/企業の lobbyists 推定する/予想する Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 members will not be in a position to dictate the 結果 once serious 交渉s about raising the 負債 限界 get 進行中で.

Freedom (政党の)幹部会,党集会 member 半導体素子 Roy, a U.S. 代表者/国会議員 for Texas, said no one from the 商売/仕事 community has approached him on the 負債 天井 because they probably understand his 財政政策 見解(をとる)s.

"If you want me to keep spending money I don't have so you can sit here and sell me a bunch of crap about default, I ain't listening," Roy said.

Indeed, as the June 最終期限 approaches, 商売/仕事 groups are more likely to 焦点(を合わせる) on building a 連合 of 中道派(の) 共和国の/共和党のs and 民主党員s who 支配(する)/統制する the U.S. 上院, some lobbyists said.

The likely winning approach in 議会 "tends to be from the middle out," said Neil Bradley, a U.S. 議会 of 商業 副/悪徳行為 大統領,/社長 who 以前 worked for 共和国の/共和党の leadership in the U.S. 衆議院.

Other 商売/仕事 lobbyists are を締めるing for a bumpy ride.

"We try to educate our members and folks to help them understand how the 過程 作品," said Steve Stivers, a former Tea Party 共和国の/共和党の who now 長,率いるs the Ohio 議会 of 商業. "I don't pretend that it's going to happen magically before any 肉親,親類d of 最終期限 or 十分な 圧力 状況/情勢."

(報告(する)/憶測ing by Jason Lange and Gram Slattery, 付加 報告(する)/憶測ing by Andy Sullivan, David Morgan, Richard Cowan and David Lawder; Editing by Scott Malone and Suzanne Goldenberg)

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