Brazil's corn 工場／植物ing is not the slowest ever, but 産する／生じる 危険s are elevated -Braun
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Ill., Feb 14 (Reuters) - 最高の，を越す soybean 輸出業者 Brazil is on the brink of also becoming the world´s 主要な corn 供給者, but 農業者s there have not gotten an ideal start to what they hope will be a bumper corn 刈る.
As of late last week, Brazilian 生産者s had 収穫d 17% of their soybeans, behind 普通の／平均（する） and compared with up to 30% a year ago. 雨の 条件s this season have all but solidified the 記録，記録的な／記録する soy 刈る, though unfavorable タイミング of those rains has recently 限られた／立憲的な field work.
The 延期するs have 押し進めるd 支援する 工場／植物ing of the ひどく 輸出（する）d second corn or safrinha 刈る, which may 高くする，増す the corn´s vulnerability to 天候 負かす／撃墜する the road.
The biggest 関心s 権利 now 嘘（をつく） in Brazil´s No. 2 safrinha 生産者 Parana in the country´s south, where heavier rains are 推定する／予想するd to 固執する for at least the next week. As of Monday, just 12% of the 明言する／公表する´s corn was sown compared with 28% last year and 23% on 普通の／平均（する）.
That 12% sits above the same points in 2011, 2018 and 2021 but is さもなければ lower than in all other years since. Parana´s safrihna 産する／生じるs were below 普通の／平均（する） in those years, 特に in 2021 when 産する／生じるs dropped more than 50% from normal after 存在 強調する／ストレスd by every unsavory 天候 条件 possible.
Parana´s 2021 safrinha 刈る was its 最新の 工場／植物d since at least 2009, so it was 特に 支配する to 霜 and 凍結する toward the end of the season. This year´s 工場／植物ing is 跡をつけるing more closely with 2018, which caught up to normal pace by 早期に March when the 刈る was about 60% 工場／植物d.
The main 問題／発行する in 2018 was the 異常に 乾燥した，日照りの 天候 that struck suddenly in April and May after what had been a wetter start to the year, and Parana´s safrinha yi elds fell more than 20% from 傾向.
Although it may not be 関係のある, it is 利益／興味ing to 公式文書，認める that in 2018, the 太平洋の Ocean 移行d out of La Nina into an El Nino cycle toward the end of the year, something 予報官s 予報する for this year.
にもかかわらず Parana´s 最近の rains, Brazil´s 最南端の 明言する／公表する of Rio Grande do Sul has been experiencing 干ばつ and is 推定する／予想するd to 削減する the country´s 全体にわたる soybean 生産（高）. The 明言する／公表する is Brazil´s No. 2 生産者 of first 刈る corn, but it does not 工場／植物 a second 刈る.
MATO GROSSO
Brazil´s 最高の，を越す grower Mato Grosso in the 中心-west is also on a field work pace 類似の to 2018. Some 34% of its corn was 工場／植物d as of Friday compared with 55% a year ago and a five-year 普通の／平均（する） of 42%.
But that 進歩 is more middle-of-the road if looking over the past １０年間, comparing best to 30% by the same date in 2018. 農業者s may have to continue working around にわか雨s for at least the next week.
Although Mato Grosso´s 工場／植物ing pace is not やむを得ず alarming, it may 減ずる the corn´s resilience to any 潜在的に 堅い 天候 条件s later, and last year 供給するs a 広大な／多数の／重要な example. In 早期に 2022, 生産者s 工場／植物d safrinha corn at an above-普通の／平均（する） clip.
天候 appeared 都合のよい until April, when 降雨 fell 40% below normal, 場内取引員／株価 the 明言する／公表する´s second-driest April in over a ４半期/4分の1 century. May followed the exact same pattern, though Mato Grosso´s corn 産する／生じるs were very respectable last year.
天候 followed a very 類似の pattern in 2016 with the 極端に 乾燥した，日照りの April, but the late-工場／植物d 刈る could not hang on and 産する／生じるs were の近くに to 30% below 傾向, perhaps Mato Grosso´s worst-ever corn result.
Mato Grosso´s biggest 危険 of late corn 工場／植物ing is the onset of 乾燥した，日照りの season, as 早期に as April. 乾燥した，日照りの pockets in 2018 限られた／立憲的な the 明言する／公表する´s corn 産する／生じる 類似の to last year, and 産する／生じる was good but not excellent.
Brazilian 農業者s´ hoarding of soybeans has supported 全世界の soy prices recently, but 農業者s may be 持つ／拘留するing 支援する corn sales at an even heavier 率. 生産者s in Mato Grosso had sold 25% of their 近づいている corn 刈る by 中央の-month, below the year-ago and 普通の／平均（する） pace closer to 50%. Karen Braun is a market 分析家 for Reuters. 見解（をとる）s 表明するd above are her own.
(令状ing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew 吊りくさび)
