投票s show Erdogan lags 対立 by more than 10 points ahead of May 投票（する）
By Jonathan Spicer and Ece Toksabay
ANKARA, March 13 (Reuters) - New 投票s show the Turkish 対立's 大統領の 候補者, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 主要な against 大統領 Tayyip Erdogan by more than 10 百分率 points ahead of 選挙s on May 14 seen by many as the most consequential 投票（する） in Turkey's history.
The 投票s also show the 対立 圏, called the Nation 同盟, 主要な the 議会の race, at least six points ahead of Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) and its 同盟（する）s. The プロの／賛成の-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) remains comfortably above 10%.
Erdogan 直面するs the biggest challenge to his 20-year 支配する after the 腐食 of his 人気 during a cost-of-living 危機. 犠牲者s of last month's 地震 are also 再考するing their 忠義 in previous AKP 要塞／本拠地s.
The 選挙s will decide not just who leads Turkey but how it is 治める／統治するd, where its economy is 長，率いるd and what 役割 it may play to 緩和する 衝突 in ウクライナ共和国 and the Middle East.
Wolfango Piccoli, political 危険 （a）忠告の／（n）警報 co-大統領，／社長 at Teneo, said the Nation 同盟 needs to 現在の a 統一するd 前線 and sell the 投票者s a 計画（する） to keep up their 勢い 長，率いるing into the 選挙s.
"簡単に 非難するing Erdogan for everything that is wrong in Turkey won't 削減（する） it. Past 選挙s have shown that Erdogan is a phenomenal 選挙運動者, but 最近の 発言／述べるs 示唆する he has lost his popular touch and his ability to connect with 投票者s," he told Reuters.
A 投票 published by Aksoy 研究 on Saturday and 行為／行うd on March 8 showed Kilicdaroglu, 指名するd as the 対立 同盟 候補者 on March 6, 主要な against Erdogan with 55.6% support and 44.4%, それぞれ.
It showed the main 対立 圏 garnerin g 44.1% of 投票（する）s and the HDP at 10.3%. The AKP and its 国家主義者 MHP 同盟（する）s earned 38.2% together.
A 投票 行為／行うd on March 6-7 by Alf 研究 showed Kilicdaroglu at 55.1% and Erdogan on 44.9%. Kilicdaroglu's 共和国の／共和党の People's Party (CHP) was the most popular with 31.8%, while the AK Party 追跡するd with 31%.
The main 対立 圏 earned 43.5% of 投票（する）s, while the HDP got 11.3%, that 投票 showed. The AKP and the MHP together had 37.5% support.
Piar 研究 showed Kilicdaroglu winning with 57.1%, with Erdogan lagging on 42.9%. The CHP got 32.3%, the AKP 30.8% and the HDP 11.6%. The main 対立 圏 got 46.4%, while the AKP and MHP earned 37.8%, the 投票, published on March 10, showed.
ORC 研究 showed Kilicdaroglu ahead with 56.8% and Erdogan on 43.2%, によれば a 投票 行為／行うd on March 4-6, before Kilicdaroglu was 公式に 発表するd as the 対立 候補者.
The 地震s appeared to have had little 衝撃 on the AKP's 人気. In a 投票 by Metropoll, 34.4% of people 非難するd the 政府 for the losses during the 地震, while 26.9% 非難するd 請負業者s.
The municipalities （機の）カム in third, with 15.4% of contributors 説 they were to 非難する, while 12.9% answered with "all."
Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey programme director at the Washington-based 事業／計画（する） on Middle East 僕主主義, said the 対立 同盟 was "diverse" and each 目だつ 人物／姿／数字 within the 同盟 could 控訴，上告 to a different segment of Turkey.
"In this 明確な／細部 moment we have more 推論する／理由 to be 楽観的な about Turkey's 選挙 配達するing an 対立 勝利，勝つ than we have ever been in the last 20 years," she said, speaking on a パネル盤 hosted by the 創立／基礎 for Defence of 僕主主義s. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Jonathan Spicer and Ece Toksabay; 付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Daren Butler and Angus MacSwan)
