As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade
By Karen Brettell March 13 (Reuters) - The 崩壊（する） of two big U.S. 地域の banks has 軍隊d the U.S. 社債 markets into a 近づく 180-degree turn from pricing in a more 積極的な 連邦の Reserve and is eroding 期待s the 米国紙幣 could 再開する a new 決起大会／結集させる to fresh 20-year highs. 緊急 対策 by the Fed and the U.S. 政府 on Sunday to 保証（人） bank deposits have failed to 安心させる markets after Silicon Valley Bank and 署名 Bank 崩壊（する）d. Since Thursday, the 宙返り／暴落する in short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 U.S. 財務省 産する／生じるs, which were at 15-year highs, was the steepest since October 1987, and pulled the dollar 負かす／撃墜する from three-month highs. Two-year 産する／生じるs fell as low as 3.939% on Monday, 負かす／撃墜する more than a 百分率 point from a 15-year high of 5.084% reached last week, while 10-year 産する／生じるs dipped to 3.418%, from more than 4% last week. The moves come as 投資家s 急ぐ for 安全な 港／避難所s and adjust for a いっそう少なく 積極的な Fed in the wake of the bank 失敗s. The dollar dipped 0.60% against a basket of 通貨s on Monday . "The market is 基本的に 説 that the Fed is done here," said Mazen Issa, 上級の FX strategist at TD 安全s in New York. "It wouldn´t surprise me if the market now will just try to continuously fade the Fed and won´t believe any 肉親，親類d of realm of hawkishness that 現れるs, and it´s not （疑いを）晴らす whether or not the Fed will continue to be hawkish." Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets last week when he said that the U.S. central bank might reaccelerate the pace of 率 引き上げ（る）s as it 戦う／戦いs still-high インフレーション and 利益s from a still strong 雇用 picture. That sent 財務省 産する／生じるs はっきりと higher and 上げるd the dollar 索引. But that prospect now appears off the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する. Fed 基金s 未来s 仲買人s now see the Fed as most likely to leave 率s 不変の when it 会合，会うs on March 21-22, or raise 率s by 25 basis points, a 劇の change from last week after Powell's comments before congressional 委員会s, whe n a 50 basis points 率 増加する was 見解（をとる）d as the most likely 結果. Some banks, 含むing Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer 推定する／予想する the Fed to raise 率s this month. 仲買人s are also pricing for the Fed to 削減（する） 率s this year, with the fed 基金s 率 推定する／予想するd to 落ちる to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. As of last week, 仲買人s had 大部分は given up on the prospect of 率 削減（する）s this year. "There are 潜在的に 高くする，増すd 後退，不況 危険s," on the 支援する of the 財政上の 安定 問題／発行するs, said Jonathan Cohn, 長，率いる of 率s 貿易（する）ing 戦略 at Credit Suisse in New York. While the market may retrace some of Monday´s sharp moves, "there are these 肉親，親類d of 勝つ／広く一帯に広がるing questions around the 未来 準備／条項 of credit, of bank lending, that have to be answered before markets are going to price as 積極的な of a 引き上げ（る）ing cycle as they 以前 were," Cohn said. Fed 公式の／役人s are in a 灯火管制／停電 period before the March 会合, which leaves a dearth of 指導／手引 on the extent to which the 財政上の 安定 危険s may alter their 見解（をとる） on その上の 強化するing. Even if they repeat their かかわり合い to bringing 負かす／撃墜する インフレーション, 投資家s may be ありそうもない to embrace the message to the extent they did only last week. "If the market´s 仮定／引き受けること as recently as a week ago was the Fed can and will continue to 引き上げ（る） no 事柄 what, that´s no longer, I think, the 見解（をとる）, (and) it´s going to be very difficult for the market to come 支援する to that 見解（をとる）," said Brian Daingerfield, 長，率いる of F10 FX 戦略 at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut. "From a dollar 視野, that´s very important because the resetting of Fed 期待s ever higher was a big part of the dollar 決起大会／結集させる we had seen before these moves," he 追加するd. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Karen Brettell; Editing by Alden Bentley and Jonathan Oatis)
