MORNING BID ASIA-Markets now banking on no more Fed 引き上げ(る)s

By Jamie McGeever

March 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

After the 衝突,墜落, bang, and wallop of two U.S. banks 崩壊(する)ing and regulators steaming in with 緊急 対策 late on Sunday to 妨げる contagion from 広範囲にわたる through markets, the sound you hear now is the screech of 経済学者s and 投資家s 逆転するing on their Fed 予測(する)s.

If the ratcheting up of U.S. 率 期待s in the last few months was almost without precedent, the 完全にする turnaround in the last few days is truly historic.

A week ago Barclays 経済学者s raised their 予測(する) for the Fed's March 21-22 会合 to a 50 basis point 率 引き上げ(る) from 25 bps. On Monday, they changed that to 無.

率s 未来s markets show 仲買人s now reckon the Fed is done raising 率s and will 削減(する) by 50 bps later this year. The 暗示するd '終点' 率 has 急落(する),激減(する)d more than 100 bps since last week to 4.35%, and the year-end 暗示するd 率 has 急落するd more than 150 bps to 3.90%.

The two-year 財務省 産する/生じる's slide of around 65 bps since Thursday 示すs the biggest three-day 落ちる since the 黒人/ボイコット Monday 衝突,墜落 in 1987.

So how will Asian markets open on Tuesday? 公正,普通株主権 投資家s are essentially 存在 pulled in the opposite direction by two competing, and powerful 軍隊s.

On one 手渡す, 抱擁する 強調する/ストレス in the U.S. banking system, the 崩壊(する) of the country's 16th largest bank and 緊急 介入 from the Fed, 財務省 and FDIC to 妨げる contagion is a 叫び声をあげるing sell signal. U.S. banking 在庫/株s 戦車/タンクd 7%, their biggest 落ちる in almost three years.

On the other, swift and bold 介入, the most 素晴らしい 崩壊(する) in 社債 産する/生じるs and 暗示するd in terest 率s, a はっきりと 女性 dollar, and 期待s that the Fed's 強化するing (選挙などの)運動をする is over has 明確に tempted a lot of 買い手s.

World 在庫/株s fell on Monday and are now 負かす/撃墜する five days in a 列/漕ぐ/騒動, the longest losing streak since October. But 塀で囲む Street was mixed - the Dow and S&P 500 ended 負かす/撃墜する 0.3% and 0.15%, それぞれ, while the Nasdaq rose 0.45%.

Hong Kong tech 在庫/株s broke a five-day losing streak to jump 3% on Monday, and the Nasdaq's resilience may 供給する a springboard for その上の upside on Tuesday. The 女性 dollar and はっきりと lower U.S. 産する/生じるs could also lead to broader support.

But the dust has almost certainly not settled yet, 特に if U.S. インフレーション 人物/姿/数字s on Tuesday come in hotter than 推定する/予想するd.

Here are three 重要な 開発s that could 供給する more direction to markets on Tuesday:

- U.S. 消費者物価指数 インフレーション (February)

- India 卸売 インフレーション (February)

- South Korea central bank minutes

(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Aurora Ellis)

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