Weeks of high-火刑／賭けるs politics to 形態／調整 北大西洋条約機構's July 首脳会議: Peter Apps
By Peter Apps
LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - As Lithuania 準備するs to host next month's 北大西洋条約機構 首脳会議, the 政府 in Vilnius knows 正確に／まさに what it wants - a ３倍になるing of German-led 北大西洋条約機構 軍隊s in the country to 阻止する any ロシアの ambitions in its direction.
The July 11-12 会合 will give the 74-year-old 同盟 the chance to showcase a 統一するd 返答 to ロシアの 大統領 Vladimir Putin's 侵略 of ウクライナ共和国. But ますます public politicking raises the prospect it could 最高潮の場面 分割s.
Any 選び出す／独身 北大西洋条約機構 nation can 拒否権 major 決定／判定勝ち（する）s, with Turkey and Hungary still 封鎖するing the 即位 of once-中立の Sweden, 招待するd to join the 同盟 in March last year along with Finland.
Swedish 即位, 北大西洋条約機構 公式の／役人s and 外交官s say, should be one of the "jewels in the 栄冠を与える" of the Vilnius 首脳会議 - but 北大西洋条約機構 長官 General Jens Stoltenberg made it （疑いを）晴らす this week that re-elected Turkish 大統領 Tayyip Erdogan has yet to acquiesce.
Also this week, Ukrainian 大統領 Volodymyr Zelenskiy - who had been 推定する／予想するd to …に出席する as a guest of honour to 就任する a new stepped-up ウクライナ共和国-北大西洋条約機構 会議 - 示唆するd he might stay away unless the 同盟 is 用意が出来ている to 申し込む／申し出 quicker 北大西洋条約機構 会員の地位, a move on which members remain even more divided.
に引き続いて his trip to 中国 this year, French 大統領 Emmanuel Macron appears to now have his own 論争 with the 同盟, 示唆するing he …に反対するs a 計画（する） to open 北大西洋条約機構´s first office in Asia in Japan and arguing that the 同盟 should remain 焦点（を合わせる）d on Europe.
But several Asian and 太平洋の leaders, 含むing from Japan and South Korea, will …に出席する in Vilnius, 示唆するing that the 同盟 will stick with its hawkish line on 中国.
Behind the scenes, several eastern European 明言する／公表するs are also ロビーing major 軍隊／機動隊-与える／捧げるing nations to 増加する numbers on their 国／地域. An ますます public 競争 is also now under way to 後継する Stoltenberg, who has made no secret of his 願望（する） to return to Norway after nine years in office, but some 外交官s 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う he might be 説得するd to stick around until a 75th 周年記念日 首脳会議 in Washington in April.
伝統的に, 北大西洋条約機構 likes to have its major public 声明s and 協定s lined up months in 前進する before a major 会合, with 集会s of defence and 外務大臣s several times a year 見解（をとる）d as stepping 石／投石するs to the 首脳会議s. While many of those discussions take place behind の近くにd doors, 高度に public ロビーing before a 首脳会議 appears to be becoming more ありふれた.
Barely a week before the Madrid 首脳会議 last June, Estonian 総理大臣 Kaja Kallas tore into 同盟 軍の planning to defend the Baltic 明言する／公表するs in a public 要点説明 in Brussels, 警告 that 存在するing 計画（する）s would see her country 侵略（する）／超過（する） and the 北大西洋条約機構 戦う／戦い groups there 敗北・負かすd if attacked by a 軍隊 of 同等（の） size to that Putin threw against ウクライナ共和国 in February 2022.
北大西洋条約機構'S NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCE
That 介入 helped to 配達する impetus for the 協定 in Madrid of some of 北大西洋条約機構´s most ambitious 軍の 計画（する）s since the 冷淡な War ended, putting as many as 300,000 同盟 軍隊／機動隊s on a tiered system of 警報. Those 計画（する）s, however, remain 公然と ill-defined.
The Vilnius 首脳会議 would need to go very 不正に to be worse than that held in Brussels in July 2018, which saw then-U.S. 大統領 Donald Trump berate Stoltenberg for several minutes in テレビ放送するd comments before a dinner. That 会合 also 報道によれば saw him 示唆する the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs might 辞退する to honour its かかわり合いs to defend Europe under Article 5 of the North 大西洋 条約, in which an attack on one member is seen as an attack upon all.
The 近づく-death experience of the Trump 時代, followed by the ウクライナ共和国 侵略, has given the 同盟 something of a new 賃貸し（する） of life. Ever since Russia's 2014 併合 of Crimea, the 同盟 has 刻々と stepped up its 軍隊s and 演習s, 特に in Eastern Europe, even if the most exposed nations would like more.
The challenges of 配達するing 合意 in a now 31-member group, however, appear to be growing 刻々と. The strength of Turkish 対立 to 拡大するing the 同盟 to Sweden and Finland took some by surprise. The 意図 had been that they joined together, 課すing another （疑いを）晴らす and 早い cost on Russia for its ウクライナ共和国 侵略.
Instead, Erdogan （刑事）被告 both nations of harbouring and 支援 分離主義者 Kurdish PKK 交戦的なs. In Madrid last year, Sweden and Finland 調印するd a を取り引きする Turkey to 株 知能 and counterterrorism 協調 and end their 各々の 武器 出入港禁止s - but while Turkish 公式の／役人s say Finland has done enough, the Turkish 議会, now joined by its Hungarian 相当するもの, has 繰り返して failed to 是認する Sweden.
北大西洋条約機構 'JOLTED AWAKE'
北大西洋条約機構 公式の／役人s hope the end of the Turkish 選挙 will make Ankara more pliant. Sweden has now passed a counterterrorism 法案, 誘発するing demonstrations this 週末 by PKK 支持者s in Stockholm. At his 圧力（をかける） 会議／協議会 in Turkey, Stoltenberg 強調する／ストレスd that those 抗議するs themselves were not "テロ行為", 説 that Sweden had now made good on its 約束s in Madrid.
Turkish 公式の／役人s have 表明するd その上の 乱暴／暴力を加える over the 燃やすing of a Koran in a 右翼 抗議する in Stockholm earlier this year. Some 外交官s at 北大西洋条約機構 HQ 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う Turkey may be 持つ／拘留するing out for その上の 譲歩s both from the 同盟 and from Washington, 含むing 潜在的に sales of F-16 闘士，戦闘機 j ets, a freer 手渡す in Syria and maybe even the 任命 of a Turk as 北大西洋条約機構´s 副 長官 general.
直す／買収する，八百長をするing 不一致s over Ukrainian 会員の地位 may be harder.
In 2008, フラン and Germany …に反対するd a Bush 行政 計画（する） to give ウクライナ共和国 faster 会員の地位, a 決定／判定勝ち（する） many Ukrainians say left the door open for Russia's 侵略. Most 北大西洋条約機構 nations …に反対する giving ウクライナ共和国 会員の地位 while war still 激怒（する）s, although some Eastern European nations want faster movement.
Last week, Macron, who called the 同盟 "brain-dead" in 2019 but says it was "揺さぶるd awake" by the ウクライナ共和国 侵略, last week 転換d his position, 説 the Vilnius 首脳会議 should give Kyiv a path to 会員の地位, and 安全 保証（人）s until that happens.
Whether other member 明言する／公表するs 転換 position remains hard to say.
How 井戸／弁護士席 ウクライナ共和国´s counteroffensive goes between now and the 首脳会議 may also 形態／調整 perceptions - although new Western 供給（する）s of 戦車／タンクs and F-16s seem ありそうもない to reach the 前線 line in time to 意味ありげに 影響する／感情 frontline fighting for a while.
That will likely put the ウクライナ共和国 war into next year - and almost certainly another 北大西洋条約機構 長官 general. With Estonia´s Kallas seen as too hawkish for some European 明言する／公表するs, the three most often-touted 前線-走者s appear to be British Defence 長官 Ben Wallace, Canadian 副 総理大臣 Chrystia Freeland and Danish 総理大臣 Mette Frederiksen.
Whoever does get the 役割 will have to 扱う an 同盟 that is ますます challenging to run.
September will see an 選挙 in 現在／一般に プロの／賛成の-北大西洋条約機構 Slovakia that could see a more プロの／賛成の-Kremlin 右翼 行政 come to 力／強力にする.
More importantly, however, next year will bring another U.S. 選挙, with some opinion 投票s 持つ／拘留するing out the prospect for Trump's return to 力／強力にする.
* Peter Apps is a Reuters columnist 令状ing on defence and 安全 問題／発行するs. He joined Reuters in 2003, 報告（する）／憶測ing from southern Africa and Sri Lanka and on 全世界の defence 問題／発行するs. He has been a columnist since 2016. He is also the 創立者 of a think 戦車／タンク, the 事業／計画（する） for 熟考する／考慮する of the 21st Century, and, since 2016, has been a 労働 Party 行動主義者 and British Army 予備役兵. (Editing by Nick Macfie)
