COLUMN-全世界の tin 在庫／株s at two-year highs after LME squeeze: Andy Home
By Andy Home
LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - The 量 of tin sitting in London Metal 交流 (LME) 倉庫／問屋s has more than 二塁打d in the space of a month.
Metal has been arriving almost daily in 返答 to a sharp squeeze across the 前線 part of the LME tin curve.
The cash 賞与金 over three-month 配達／演説／出産 <CMSN0-3> ゆらめくd out to $1,704 per metric トン in June, the widest it's been since October 2021.
The tightness is now dissipating, but it has served to 解除する LME 在庫s to an eight-month high of 4,305 metric トンs.
Shanghai 未来s 交流 (ShFE) 在庫／株s have been 再構築するing since the start of the year and 現在／一般に stand at 9,203 metric トンs. Total 交流 在庫／株s are now the highest since March 2020.
It's a big turnaround for a market that was experiencing 激烈な／緊急の scarcity just a year or so ago, and attests to weak 需要・要求する from the electronics 部門.
But with 供給（する） disruption ぼんやり現れるing in Myanmar, the market may need some 在庫 cushion.
LME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESS
The tightness on the LME tin 契約 does not seem to have 反映するd any 不足 of tin in the physical market.
The high cash 賞与金 has drawn in metal at 多重の LME 倉庫／問屋 場所s.
配達／演説／出産s have been concentrated at Malaysia's Port Klang and Singapore, but tin has also been 令状d in Rotterdam, Antwerp, the Italian ports of Genoa and Trieste, the Spanish port of Bilbao and the U.S.
The 令状ing of 515 metric トンs at Baltimore is 特に telling, given the U.S. market was so tight in 2021 that 買い手s were 支払う／賃金ing an 注目する，もくろむ-w atering $4,000 per metric トン over the LME price to get metal.
The Midwest 賞与金 is now 査定する／（税金などを）課すd by Fastmarkets at $1,550 per metric トン, making 配達／演説／出産 の上に the LME a viable 選択.
It is （疑いを）晴らす the physical 供給（する） chain has refilled over 最近の months, thanks to 生産者s 回復するing from COVID-19 disruption and 需要・要求する from the soldering 部門 remaining subdued.
The LME squeeze appears to have been more a 衝突／不一致 of positioning in what can at times be a 比較して illiquid market.
基金 経営者／支配人s turned bullish on tin in May and the 逮捕する long position flexed out to 1,067 契約s in June, the largest 集団の／共同の bull bet since March last year.
The buying has helped three-month tin 伸び（る） a foot-持つ／拘留する above the $28,000 per metric トン level, and is likely to have 軍隊d short position 支えるもの／所有者s to cover, 与える／捧げるing to the cash tightness.
Last 貿易（する）ing at $28,100, tin is 持つ／拘留するing at the very upper end of its six-month 貿易（する）ing 範囲 even as time-spread 緊張 緩和するs.
SUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMS
While tin 供給（する） has 回復するd from 早期に-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new 脅し is now ぼんやり現れるing.
From the start of next month, all tin 採掘 will be 一時停止するd in the Wa 地域 of Myanmar.
Controlled by the 部隊d Wa 明言する／公表する Army (UWSA), the country's largest 武装した 民族の group, the 地域 accounts for around 10% of 全世界の 地雷d tin 生産／産物.
It is a major 供給者 to 中国's tin smelters, 代表するing around 26% of the country's 需要・要求する last year, によれば the International Tin 協会.
The 中断 of 採掘 is to 許す an audit of reserves after a １０年間 of 生産／産物.
No-one k nows how long it will last.
Chinese 生産者s such as Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal and Yinman 採掘, a 部隊 of Inner Mongolia Xingye 採掘, have been shutting 工場／植物s for 維持／整備 and 昇格 work.
Yunnan Tin Company, the world's 主要な tin 生産者, has just 発表するd its Gejiu smelter will take a 45-day 維持／整備 break from this week.
This looks like a 一致した 産業 move to 保存する 在庫／株s of raw 構成要素s until the 状況／情勢 in Myanmar becomes clearer.
If the 採掘 中断 lasts a couple of months as 推定する／予想するd, smelters should be able to navigate the interruption to flows of Myanmar concentrate.
However, if it lasts longer, both 中国 and the 残り／休憩（する） of the world may need those 交流 在庫s of tin.
The opinions 表明するd here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
(Editing by Jan Harvey)
